Posted on 12/01/2009 6:08:51 AM PST by blam
Economic Recovery? Commodity Charts Don't Think So
by: Wildebeest
November 30, 2009
These are buoyant times for (some) commodity investors, and (some) commodity producers, but what does it mean in terms of a global recovery?
A common feature among people drawing conclusions about the economy from commodity markets tends to be a sole focus on price, and even then only prices in exchange traded commodities. If buyers outnumber sellers prices rise, so rising prices mean a return of global demand, which in turn means global recovery -- right? Well not quite, despite the enthusiasm displayed in many articles pushing that line.
The flaw in this line of thought is that the buyers who are outnumbering sellers in commodity markets need not be end users of the commodity. There can be speculative demand from speculative buyers just as there can be economic demand from industrial buyers.
From the point of view of the markets, or the commodity producer, it doesn't matter who the buyer is: more buyers than sellers means rising prices. The problem arises when you use market price -- at face value -- to draw conclusions about the economy.
Since most of the people who connect price to economic recovery without digging deeper tend to be economists, I'm assuming economic theories don't allow for speculators.
Let me focus on metals and minerals (e.g. iron ore, coal). People don't eat these (unlike food commodities), they are used as inputs for industrial production.
As global demand picks up we would expect to see increasing consumption of metals and minerals. When buyers outnumber sellers prices rise. This is clearly what is occurring at the moment, you only need to look at price charts -- which I haven't reproduced here because we're all familiar with them.
But what if the majority of buyers are not end users of the commodity and do not take delivery, i.e. speculative buyers? If the buyer doesn't take delivery then you would expect stockpiles to rise.
In other words, if speculators are outnumbering industrialists you would expect to see quantities of the commodity that are available, i.e. stockpiled, to increase. In the first chart we have the base metal stockpiles on the London Metals Exchange.
[snip]
BTTT
The uncomfortable truth...... three cheers for the Dismal Science!
Speculators, also the name of the little fish that gather around the back door of a Hippo when he's in the water.
These POS need to be driven from the market.
Grasp of the obvious.
Good find.
ping from Lori
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