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How much longer can gold rise? (a few things need to happen before the yellow fever cools off)
MSN Money ^ | 11/23/2009 | Bill Fleckenstein

Posted on 11/23/2009 6:24:17 AM PST by SeekAndFind

There has been an endless amount of chatter about the price of gold being too high (it's not) and perhaps representing a bubble. It also seems that fair amounts of ink and windage have been wasted on worries about the gold trade being "too crowded."

In my daily column on my own Web site, on Sept. 17, I noted a remark by Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter that the gold market was "terribly, egregiously, preposterously, shockingly overpopulated."

That day, gold closed at $1,014 an ounce. Here we are, about two months later, and gold is more than 10% higher.

In a bull market, worrying about an idea being too crowded with like-minded investors is not very productive. More likely than not, it will help to eliminate you from a winning position.

At some point, when the gold market is finally reaching a top, it will, in fact, be too crowded. But we're almost nine years into this bull market in gold, and to me it seems that there are more people of the mind that "the trade" is too crowded than there are who say it isn't.

We'll know gold is overcrowded when . . . For the long-gold trade to really become too crowded, certain events will need to occur:

* Goldman Sachs (GS, news, msgs) will have had "bus tours" to a bunch of mines, like the tours it and other companies have arranged for different industries, particularly technology.

* The public will have to be involved in a major way, and we'll see ads on Bubblevision encouraging people to buy gold instead of prodding them to sell their jewelry, as is the case these days.

(Excerpt) Read more at articles.moneycentral.msn.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: gold; rise
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1 posted on 11/23/2009 6:24:19 AM PST by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-hits-fresh-high-as-dec-contract-tops-1160-2009-11-22

Gold hits new high on weaker dollar, Iran

By Polya Lesova & Moming Zhou, MarketWatch

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Gold futures rallied Monday for a seventh day, with the December contract hitting a new high near $1,170 an ounce, as dollar weakness and escalating tensions between Iran and the west boosted gold’s appeal as a safe haven and a hedge against inflation.

Gold futures have already seen a seven-day winning streak ended on Nov. 11. The metal has only recorded one losing session this month.

“It is an unbelievable rally,” said Darin Newsom, a senior analyst at Telvent DTN, adding that buying is coming from inflation hedge and safe-haven buying due to continued global economic concerns.

CLICK ABOVE LINK FOR THE REST


2 posted on 11/23/2009 6:25:58 AM PST by SeekAndFind (wH)
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To: SeekAndFind
How much longer can gold rise?

Forever, just like the tech and the housing bubble.

3 posted on 11/23/2009 6:27:36 AM PST by umgud (I couldn't understand why the ball kept getting bigger......... then it hit me.)
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To: umgud

It will cool down when people realize they can’t buy food with it . . . which may or many not happen!


4 posted on 11/23/2009 6:30:35 AM PST by RushingWater
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To: umgud
Forever, just like the tech and the housing bubble.

When this one pops, what will they replace it with?

5 posted on 11/23/2009 6:32:22 AM PST by palmer (Cooperating with Obama = helping him extend the depression and implement socialism.)
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To: RushingWater

That’s why the best strategy is to keep 10% in precious metals (not 100% or 0%)


6 posted on 11/23/2009 6:33:45 AM PST by palmer (Cooperating with Obama = helping him extend the depression and implement socialism.)
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To: palmer

10%...or 30-40% when the Constitution is getting trashed daily.


7 posted on 11/23/2009 6:43:21 AM PST by rwh (What great fortune it is for those in power that the people do not think!)
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To: palmer

10%...or 30-40% when the Constitution is getting trashed daily.


8 posted on 11/23/2009 6:45:05 AM PST by rwh (What great fortune it is for those in power that the people do not think!)
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To: umgud

There is either a currency bubble or a gold bubble.

Gold’s inexorable, but gentle, sometimes hesitant rise is evidence of one of them.


9 posted on 11/23/2009 6:49:00 AM PST by Atlas Sneezed (“Personal freedom begins when you tell Old Mrs. Grundy to go to Hell.” -Lazarus Long)
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To: palmer

government...


10 posted on 11/23/2009 6:53:22 AM PST by stefanbatory (Weed out the RINOs! Sign the pledge. conservativepledge.org)
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To: rwh

If we had started with 10 at the peak of the tech boom, we would have 30-40 by now.


11 posted on 11/23/2009 6:54:09 AM PST by palmer (Cooperating with Obama = helping him extend the depression and implement socialism.)
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To: umgud

To those who are considering shorting gold, I give one bit of sound financial advice (which especially applies to gold) you ignore at your peril:

Markets can remain irrational for MUCH longer than you can remain solvent.


12 posted on 11/23/2009 6:58:21 AM PST by AFPhys ((Praying for our troops, our citizens, that the Bible and Freedom become basis of the US law again))
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To: SeekAndFind
Thanks for the post. If y'all don't mind a bit of blog-pimping, I've started a blog to watch the gold market. I believe that gold's at the start of a bubble.

One item from Fleckenstein's bubble-features list - "Banks will need to find a way to put money into gold -- because no modern mania has ever ended without the banks finding a way to lose money in it" - isn't that far from the truth. Banks tend to lend pell-mell to gold companies when the top of a gold bubble's reached. We're not there yet: the typical gold exploration stock is selling way below what it would be if the banks were beating the bushes for projects to finance. Lending money's still hard to find, particularly for reactivated mines.

At the peak of a gold bubble, exploration stocks with mine-sized deposits will be selling as if bank financing were a sure thing. We're far, far away from that point now.

13 posted on 11/23/2009 7:00:46 AM PST by danielmryan
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To: palmer
When this one pops, what will they replace it with?

Lead.....

14 posted on 11/23/2009 7:01:08 AM PST by Thermalseeker (Stop the insanity - Flush Congress!)
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To: SeekAndFind
if we really have reached “peak gold” and all the easy gold has been found... gold will go no where but up.
15 posted on 11/23/2009 7:11:22 AM PST by TexasFreeper2009 (Obama lied, the economy died)
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To: SeekAndFind

$1,174 now. HOLY COW!


16 posted on 11/23/2009 7:16:23 AM PST by Proud2BeRight
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To: SeekAndFind

Jim Sinclair agrees with Alf Fields predictions..

http://jsmineset.com/2009/05/10/alf-field%E2%80%99s-gold-price-predictions/


17 posted on 11/23/2009 7:16:35 AM PST by vietvet67
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To: RushingWater

One question, If paper money becomes useless would not Gold or silver retain trading value if society still exists? I personally would want a little gold and silver because money is on a quick road to uselessness.

Oh yea Lead, Food, seeds, and Spices will also be more valuable than paper money.


18 posted on 11/23/2009 7:21:01 AM PST by jafojeffsurf (Return to the Constitution.)
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To: palmer
When this one pops, what will they replace it with?

You don't get it. THIS IS THE REPLACEMENT for our paper "Funny Money".
19 posted on 11/23/2009 7:21:26 AM PST by jongaltsr (Hope to See ya in Galt's Gulch.)
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To: Proud2BeRight

20 posted on 11/23/2009 7:34:32 AM PST by SeekAndFind (wH)
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