Worst-case for California's budget deficit next year? $25 billion

Mercury News ^ | 11/14/09 | Denis C. Theriault

[NormsRevenge]

SACRAMENTO — With high unemployment continuing to eat at California's tax revenues, and risky budget gimmicks failing to materialize, the state's deficit next year could hit a staggering $25 billion.

If worst-case scenarios hold true, several insiders who track the state's financial picture tell the Mercury News, the deficit through June 2011 would be billions higher than previous estimates.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's best-case estimate earlier this week was half that sum, at $12.4 billion. Assembly Republican leader Sam Blakeslee of San Luis Obispo floated a number as high as $20 billion during water negotiations.

"It's not outrageous," one budget expert said of the $25 billion figure, stressing nonetheless that it would mark the uppermost boundary of any estimates.

Still, no matter the eventual size of the deficit, the governor has already promised "across-the-board cuts" — setting the stage for another year of painful budget wrangling. At stake is money for everything from schools to state parks to prisons.

A clearer picture should emerge Wednesday, when the Legislative Analyst's Office releases its annual fiscal outlook report. The report examines the current budget's revenue and spending assumptions and gives an updated assessment of the state's prospects next year and beyond.

Its release typically marks the official start of budget season in Sacramento. The governor will release his budget proposals in Advertisement January, and the Department of Finance has already begun its own annual review of the state's finances in preparation.

"We know the 2009-10 budget was too optimistic," said Fred Silva, a budget expert working with California Forward, a state-government reform group. "What's their forecast for 2010-11, and how optimistic are they? We're just going to have to wait and see."

He added that a deficit topping $20 billion isn't beyond possibility.

[goldstategop]

There should be very steep cuts. But for the Democrats and the unions, its a virtual declaration of war.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

[NoLibZone]

Cut aid to illegals and balance in just a few months.

A political hot potato.

So broke we shall go.

[goldstategop]

The budget is $84 billion. Slash it by half or more to bring it into balance.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

[NormsRevenge]

A clearer picture should emerge Wednesday, when the Legislative Analyst's Office releases its annual fiscal outlook report. The report examines the current budget's revenue and spending assumptions and gives an updated assessment of the state's prospects next year and beyond.

--

Can't wait. Incredible how a few cowardly politicians, some greedy union leaders, add in some trial lawyers, the green lobby and foreign (and Northeastern liberal) interlopers, can mess a state and nation up this bad so quick.

Almost seems planned.. hmmm.

or is just an untimely series of coincidental actions and reactions to the looming

Total Collapse It's inevitable. (/tinfoil)

[goldstategop]

They've run out of gimmicks, accounting tricks and borrowing to cover up the illusion California is flat broke. They don't want to do what we all must when we're short of cash.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

California will not rectify it’s cranial rectal inversion with anything short of total bankruptcy.

[Lancey Howard]

"It's not outrageous," one budget expert said of the $25 billion figure, stressing nonetheless that it would mark the uppermost boundary of any estimates.

....Meaning that the actual deficit will exceed $30 billion.

[NormsRevenge]

Hey, I think Gray’s 38 Billion is in jeopardy myself.. these foools don’t appreciate how much they have gouged the economy. revenue projections ain’t gonna be pretty..

Somebody has to kill the $pending monster this gubamint has become.. hit the kill switch aRnie.. Freeze Freeze FReeze..

[arista]

The Cal state budget is actually more like $145 billion.

[goldstategop]

It could well be $40-50 billion. I wouldn't be surprised if the budget deficit exceeded all official forecasts. So much for those who told us tax hikes would solve California's chronic fiscal shortfalls.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

[Lancey Howard]

California will not rectify it’s cranial rectal inversion with anything short of total bankruptcy

That is correct.

Like the hopeless alcoholic who wakes up one afternoon in a dumpster, covered in his own vomit, urine, and feces, California must hit bottom before it can think about recovery. The alcoholic needs to give up the booze; California needs to give up the spending.

That won't happen until bankruptcy is declared. And let's hope we have a Republican congress when that happens, or taxpayers from fiscally responsible red states will end up bailing out the scumbag California Democrat politicians and the parasites and morons who elect them.

[umgud]

The only problem with CA is the 2/3 majority to raise taxes. Do away with this pesky requirement and all our problems will go away. /s

[seenenuf]

It’s to late to fix. Let it break - ha, as if we have a choice! CA is too big, too invaded and too varied to be governed ‘by the people’. I’d vote to be able to be in the 51st State.

[goldstategop]

The Democrats and unions have put it before the voters for years only to have it repeatedly rejected. Californians don't want to give them the keys to the house when they already messed up the family car.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find only things evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelogus

[Gritty]

Not to worry. The feds will give them the money. They'll just print more.

Besides, after we get a general amnesty in early 2010, all these newly minted Democrat voters will step up to the plate, get off the welfare and benefits train, pay their taxes, and haul their share of the load. The budget will solve itself! /s/

[artichokegrower]

Wait until AB 32 the California Global Warming Solutions Act goes into full time effect next year. You ain’t seen nothing yet as far as the California economy going into the tank.

http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

We need an across the board 25% cut of all departments. If the legislature thinks something is too important to cut that much they need to cut something else further to get the revenue for it.

[dennisw]

California must be allowed to go bankrupt and renegotiate EVERYTHING including outlandish pensions and all the BS government entities it has like clean air districts and save the tadpole commmisions etc.

California needs to get the water turned back on for the farmers.....until then they are not serious about their economic problems. They need to shut down freebies for illegal aliens...until then they are not serious

[stevem]

Don’t guvmint revenues come from productive people? Hasn’t California done everything humanly possible to encourage productive people to leave the state as fast as possible? Doesn’t California continue to so encourage productive people?