Rossi and the ‘Pubs in WA State tried that after the ‘04 theft and they got bombed in the ‘08 rematch.
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You're right - it is no guarantee. But to be fair in the WA State gubernatorial race in 2008 - Gregoire rode the bammy coat-tail (large at that time, which has since gone negative.)
That's true, and that was my point. The outcome of the rematch is more often a function of the political climate at the time of the election than any memory of or resentment over the results of a preceding election. The '08 election was tough for 'Pubs in general so Fraudoire won in a walk in the rematch. If Bro is popular in 2012, he's going to blow away any 'Pub, be they Romney or Palin or whoever. If he's in the toilet, the 'Rats may have another Carter on their hands.
If Hoffman tries again next year he's starting from scratch. I don't think he can count on any carryover from this year. If Owens proves effective and estimable to the voters, he's going to be tough to beat.