Recanvassing shows NY-23 race tightens even as Rep. Bill Owens is sworn into House seat

Syracuse.com ^ | 11/12/09 | Mark Weiner / The Post-Standard

[luckybogey]

Found this:

“there are at least 5,400 absentee ballots returned that have not been counted. That process starts Tuesday...”

http://www.watertowndailytimes.com/article/20091112/BLOGS09/911129996

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“Jefferson County, home of Fort Drum and the Army’s 10th Mountain Division, distributed 2,299 absentee ballots for the special election. As of this week, 1,303 had been returned but not counted, Eaton said. He said the county will begin counting the absentee ballots earyl next week.
Conklin, of the state Board of Elections, said officials did not have updated absentee ballot totals from the other counties...”

http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2009/11/its_not_over_recanvassing_shows_ny23_race.html

[SeattleBruce]

“there are at least 5,400 absentee ballots returned that have not been counted. That process starts Tuesday...”
++++++++++++++++

Hoffman would have to win at least 4214 of those 5400 absentee ballots to win.

He would need 78% on those ballots. That percentage would go down if there were more. It says ‘at least 5400.’

78% - not likely - not impossible.

At the very least I’d love to see it tighten significantly and give a lie to the RAT narrative that Tea Partiers are insignificant and even damaging to Republicans.

[Canadian Outrage]

If they seat the loser and refuse to undo it, then the United States elections are already in the third world column. This is rediculous. I never bought it anyway even without knowing that there were all these uncounted ballots. Hoffman was leading the entire time, and then he suddenly loses? Not buying it. The Courts MUST become involved and Owens must be removed plus his vote for the healthcare nightmare bill needs to be removed. CO

[Canadian Outrage]

That’s my take on the 2010 elections too. The entire thing is being FIXED even now. I can’t understand WHY America is ALLOWING this voter fraud to continue and increase the way it is. It’s time for a real bloody down and out fight about every single vote. No thugs allowed to prevent folks from voting, EVERY SINGLE registration needs to be checked and re-checked and on and on. HAVE YOU NOT HAD ENOUGH. If not, concede the 2010 elections right now. Un-freaking-believeable!! CO

[chimera]

That's true, and that was my point. The outcome of the rematch is more often a function of the political climate at the time of the election than any memory of or resentment over the results of a preceding election. The '08 election was tough for 'Pubs in general so Fraudoire won in a walk in the rematch. If Bro is popular in 2012, he's going to blow away any 'Pub, be they Romney or Palin or whoever. If he's in the toilet, the 'Rats may have another Carter on their hands.

If Hoffman tries again next year he's starting from scratch. I don't think he can count on any carryover from this year. If Owens proves effective and estimable to the voters, he's going to be tough to beat.

[SeattleBruce]

If Hoffman tries again next year he’s starting from scratch. I don’t think he can count on any carryover from this year. If Owens proves effective and estimable to the voters, he’s going to be tough to beat.
++++++++++++++++++

You make good points and you could be right about NY 23. Big difference is one year, vs. 4.

Also, it does appear that Owens broke 3 or 4 promises almost immediately - don’t know how ‘estimable’ that is to the voters.

You know that Hoffman will get what he got before, plus a certain portion of Rs that voted for Dede. Plus the clear and continuing malaise that the RATs have sunk the country into, will only help all Conservatives, of which Hoffman is one to be sure.

[phillyfanatic]

The answer is threefold. 1. More Dem registrars count incorrectly, find new ballots or suppress absentees and provisionals that go Pubconserv. 2. ACORN-SEIU do a great job of counseling in tough NE districts. 3. Pubs tend to play by the rules and concede either too fast or do not read the tea leaves correctly about stats in the first place. The GOP is not known as the Stupid Party for nothing.

[chimera]

It is true that Owens will have a shorter track record to run on, and that can go either way in terms of helping or hurting. My guess is that Hoffman can re-capture a fair amount of support he had this time around. Whether or not it matches or exceeds the support from this year, well, that depends on Owens and the political climate next year. If the ‘Rats are down, and I hope they are, Owens may lose support. This year there was a fair amount of support for someone who was not cut from the same cloth as traditional pols. If Hoffman was a bit more charismatic and inspiring as a candidate, he might have done it. That will be his challenge if he runs again, try to be more animated and outgoing. He’s got good ideas and is a decent person, but presented a somewhat dull, uninspiring visage. Nowadays, it seems, appearances can play a significant role in success or failure as a candidate.

[cookcounty]

"And Owens was sworn in, yet New York state hasn’t certified the winner yet!"

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? So is Upchuck cahnging his name to Chuck Stalin? What's the matter with these people.....little by little, I'm getting drawn into the "Evil Conspirators" view of the Democrats, or I should say, the so-called "Democrats"