Afghan Push May Threaten Pakistan

DoD Buzz ^ | November 6,2009 | Greg Grant

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policymakers continue to debate U.S. strategy in Afghanistan, we asked Rick Nelson, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to weigh in on the possibility of reconciling Taliban fighters, efforts to track down Al Qaeda and the potential risks that an escalation of the war in Afghanistan might pose to neighboring Pakistan. Nelson is a former Navy helicopter pilot with operational and intelligence experience in counterterrorism including assignments at the National Counterterrorism Center and National Security Council. Earlier this year, he returned from Afghanistan where he directed a Joint Task Force. Below is an email Q and A we did.

1. The recently signed 2010 defense bill contains a provision that permits commanders in Afghanistan (using CERP funds) to pay insurgent fighters to switch sides. The hope is that the “Sons of Iraq” program can be replicated in Afghanistan by offering low-level insurgents amnesty for past acts and a job. Will this effort to peel away militants work and would it have a noticeable impact on the Taliban?

We need to be careful about assuming that what worked in Iraq will solve Afghanistan. That said, the successful “Sons of Iraq” program could inform efforts to split the Taliban and reduce militancy in Afghanistan.

The Afghan Taliban is not monolithic—its three main branches are the Quetta Shura, the Haqqani network, and the Hezb-i-Islami Gulbuddin—and these divisions suggest an opportunity to split or co-opt the insurgency. This type of program would be based on the premise that U.S., NATO, and Afghan forces can never fully eliminate Taliban influence in Afghanistan; accordingly, some sort of political reconciliation ultimately is needed.