My sense is that New York is politically identical to Michigan. Cities liberal, country conservative. This is a very, very rural district (think upper peninsula), so I'd still give Hoffman the edge.
People would be amazed at how conservative the small SW New York village I grew up in is. Palin is a heroine there. Unfortunately the entire of Cattaraugus County has about the same population as the West Side of Buffalo, so the voting impact isn't very large.
I’ve known plenty of libs from the 23rd...and injdependent-minded Volvo granolas, New-Agers, Country-clubbers, and those who just eat up whatever populist candy is passed out, but in general, I agree for both states.