Posted on 10/31/2009 7:38:14 AM PDT by Behind Liberal Lines
Washington The campaign for the 23rd Congressional District seat has turned into a two-person race that is too close to call only days before the election, according to an independent poll released today.
Democrat Bill Owens (36 percent) and Conservative Doug Hoffman (35 percent) have emerged as the frontrunners, the Siena College poll of likely voters found.
At the same time, Republican Dede Scozzafava the early frontrunner has seen her support sink to 20 percent of likely voters, the Siena Research Institute poll found.
Scozzafava, a state Assemblywoman and the only candidate in the race with political experience, was favored by 35 percent at the start of October, when she led the pack.
Unfortunately for Assemblywoman Scozzafava, this has become a two-person race between Owens and Hoffman, Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement today.
The poll found Hoffmans strongest support in the district comes from Central New York, where he is favored by 44 percent of voters to 33 percent for Owens.
Scozzafava, a social moderate who supports same-sex marriage and abortion rights, was favored by only 12 percent in Central New York, down from 20 percent in mid-October.
The Central New York portion of the district encompasses all of Oswego and Madison counties, and a portion of Oneida County. The 11-county district stretches from the counties surrounding Syracuse to the Canadian border and east to the Adirondacks.
Owens continued to draw his strongest support from likely voters in the eastern part of the district (46 percent), and Scozzafava polled strongest near her home region in Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties.
The telephone poll of 704 likely voters in the 23rd Congressional District was conducted Tuesday through Thursday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
With only three days until the election, Greenberg said the difference will likely come down to whether Owens or Hoffman does a better job getting their voters to the polls on Tuesday.
Greenberg said there is also a strong possibility that the election will not be decided on Election Day.
Given the tightness of the race and the need to count every vote, however, including those from the military, it is certainly possible that the victory party will have to be delayed beyond Tuesday night, Greenberg said.
Military ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 2, but a new state law allows more time for the ballots to be received from overseas. As a result, elections officials must count any properly postmarked military ballot received by Nov. 16.
The Siena poll found Owens continued to build steady momentum this week, particularly among Democratic and independent voters. He now has the support of 66 percent of Democrats and 35 percent of independents.
Hoffman gained momentum with voters from almost every demographic, except Democrats. His strongest gains were among Republican, younger and Catholic voters.
All three candidates plan an aggressive schedule of appearances across the district leading up to Tuesdays election.
Gov. George Pataki will fly to Syracuse today, where he plans to campaign with Hoffman in Madison County.
Vice President Joe Biden will fly into Watertown on Monday morning for a get out the vote rally with Owens.
Scozzafava plans to campaign through Election Day, when she is scheduled to visit voters in Oswego, Fulton, Oneida and Cazenovia, among about a dozen campaign stops for the day.
Check the story at the top of the list on FR/
She HAS dropped out, must be just a few minutes ago.
My bad, she is not supporting anyone in her statement. The "News" report I read seems to be someone's wishful thinking. Re-don sack cloth and ashes.
I'm not trying to flame you but your above, common and put-upon belief is not reality.
Scozzi:
"It is increasingly clear that pressure is mounting on many of my supporters to shift their support. Consequently, I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican. It is my hope that with my actions today, my party will emerge stronger and our district and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations."
She can't bring herself to support Hoffman.
LOL. We'll see what happens. If Newt and his band of merry men now start shouting from the rooftops "Hoffman" I MAY concede your point. Till then, no way.
I hereby release those individuals who have endorsed and supported my campaign to transfer their support as they see fit to do so. I am and have always been a proud Republican
She has. Dede has suspended her campaign this morning.
Bingo. To a RINO, "a conservative can't win," or it's game over, they'll have no power with which to sell favors to their corporate friends.
These people get us stuck with "the party of the rich" label even though the Slave Party is the party of the fabulously rich. In many ways, they are more an impediment to conservatism than are the Democrats.
Given the tightness of the race and the need to count every vote, however, including those from the military, it is certainly possible that the victory party will have to be delayed beyond Tuesday night, Greenberg said. “
The RNC better fire up the lawyers because if it is close the rats in this state will steal it.
I know, I read that, and this is all news from literally the last 20 minutes: fact is, Sessions got behind Hoffman
literally YESTERDAY, for good reason: it was the perception that it was just getting too unpopular for the GOP Establishment to be backing her, given the numbers they saw Hoffman was showing: this, also, was a guiding principle of Chicago/Daley Machine politics: “don’t back no losers”.
But the people who came out (Sessions, and possibly, a little later, Steele and Newt) are craven johnnies-come-lately
who STILL don’t deserve to be taken seriously anyway.
Expect a HUGE aggressive campaign by the Obama types up there to get the Dem elected. Expect big trouble if the Dem is elected,since this has ALWAYS been a Republican, not especially RINO ,stronghold, and Dems won’t be able to pull it off without spreading lots of money around-—this would be a perfect venue for unreconstructed ACORN layoffs to work in. I’d love to be there to see it for myself.
The dems are saying that the Republicans and conservatives will steal it with the voting machines. LOL! It is funny how both sides complain and complain. It sure makes for funny times. I think it is really funny that we have hatred for Obama just like the Democrats had hatred for Bush. It just means that everyone is the same!!!
“The RATS will cheat and steal it.”
One of the few things you can always count on...
beyond death and taxes.
With all due respect to Siena College, we really don’t know how accurate this poll is. This district is about as conservative as you’re going to find in New York, but it does contain two college towns - Plattsburgh and Oswego.
“She is supporting Hoffman. Put away the sack cloth and ashes and playing chicken little please”
Ditto!
If anyone can do it, Biden can.
[Greenberg said there is also a strong possibility that the election will not be decided on Election Day. ]
Uh-oh. We all know what that means... The Rats are going to do everything they can to steal this seat.
Will her 20% go to Hoffman?? or Owens??
She didn’t say who she was supporting
Owens 36
Hoffman 35
Scozzafava 20
Undecided 9
If the Scozzafava voters break 2:1 Hoffman, that makes it Hoffman 48.4, Owens 42.6. If Undecided break 50:50, this race will be 52.9 Hoffman, 47. 1 Owens. Also, keep in mind, Hoffman voters are most likely the most motivated.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.