Posted on 10/31/2009 7:38:14 AM PDT by Behind Liberal Lines
Washington – The campaign for the 23rd Congressional District seat has turned into a two-person race that is too close to call only days before the election, according to an independent poll released today.
Democrat Bill Owens (36 percent) and Conservative Doug Hoffman (35 percent) have emerged as the frontrunners, the Siena College poll of likely voters found.
At the same time, Republican Dede Scozzafava – the early frontrunner – has seen her support sink to 20 percent of likely voters, the Siena Research Institute poll found.
Scozzafava, a state Assemblywoman and the only candidate in the race with political experience, was favored by 35 percent at the start of October, when she led the pack.
“Unfortunately for Assemblywoman Scozzafava, this has become a two-person race between Owens and Hoffman,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in a statement today.
The poll found Hoffman’s strongest support in the district comes from Central New York, where he is favored by 44 percent of voters to 33 percent for Owens.
Scozzafava, a social moderate who supports same-sex marriage and abortion rights, was favored by only 12 percent in Central New York, down from 20 percent in mid-October.
The Central New York portion of the district encompasses all of Oswego and Madison counties, and a portion of Oneida County. The 11-county district stretches from the counties surrounding Syracuse to the Canadian border and east to the Adirondacks.
Owens continued to draw his strongest support from likely voters in the eastern part of the district (46 percent), and Scozzafava polled strongest near her home region in Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties.
The telephone poll of 704 likely voters in the 23rd Congressional District was conducted Tuesday through Thursday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
With only three days until the election, Greenberg said the difference will likely come down to whether Owens or Hoffman does a better job getting their voters to the polls on Tuesday.
Greenberg said there is also a strong possibility that the election will not be decided on Election Day.
“Given the tightness of the race and the need to count every vote, however, including those from the military, it is certainly possible that the victory party will have to be delayed beyond Tuesday night,” Greenberg said.
Military ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 2, but a new state law allows more time for the ballots to be received from overseas. As a result, elections officials must count any properly postmarked military ballot received by Nov. 16.
The Siena poll found Owens continued to build steady momentum this week, particularly among Democratic and independent voters. He now has the support of 66 percent of Democrats and 35 percent of independents.
Hoffman gained momentum with voters from almost every demographic, except Democrats. His strongest gains were among Republican, younger and Catholic voters.
All three candidates plan an aggressive schedule of appearances across the district leading up to Tuesday’s election.
Gov. George Pataki will fly to Syracuse today, where he plans to campaign with Hoffman in Madison County.
Vice President Joe Biden will fly into Watertown on Monday morning for a “get out the vote” rally with Owens.
Scozzafava plans to campaign through Election Day, when she is scheduled to visit voters in Oswego, Fulton, Oneida and Cazenovia, among about a dozen campaign stops for the day.
“At the same time, Republican Dede Scozzafava – the early frontrunner – has seen her support sink to 20 percent of likely voters”
20 percent is way too high for a liberal GOPer.
Well, this IS New York we're talking about
This is a GOP district. Been held by the GOP since the Civil War. A lot of these voters are supporting whom ever has the R next to their name. All Dede is doing is playing spoiler. She should withdraw.
“Well, this IS New York we’re talking about”
Yeah well I am hoping that Hoffman will get NY-23 comfy with conservatives, then perhaps it will spread all over NY and into New England.
I seriously believe that the GOP went to Scozzafava and said, "You aren't going to win. And it's really, really bad for us if the third party guy that Sarah Palin is supporting ends up winning. We need to stop Hoffman. So, here's the plan: you drop out, your supporters shift over to the other Liberal in the race, and Sarah Palin ends up with egg on her face."
Bump!
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/10/024826.php
“What remains of Scozzafava’s vote is still about 2:1 Republican, so Hoffman has a good chance of growing further. But it’s a close one that could go either way.”
She will tell you who she is by who she throws her votes to when she drops out
She will tell you who she is by who she throws her votes to when she drops out
The RATS will cheat and steal it.
Or maybe they just stay home because there’s no Republican in the race. Her supporters (what’s left of them) are probably reflex Republican voters who may lose interest. But if they do decide to vote it’s not likely they’ll pull the lever for a Dem.
can they talk ded into supporting hoffman?
But think about the 20% undecided. How many of these Independent minded voters want to vote for a third party candidate? Especially one which is explicitly Conservative. The Independents are important, and I think they will tend to drift over to Owens. With Scozzafava in the race, they were more diluted, but I see less dilution now, and I think Hoffman will get the smaller portion of them.
She won't drop out. The entire face of the GOP and RNC is hanging on her candidacy. Newt and the his band of merry RINO's will not allow her to drop out.
I bet they are secretly hoping Owens wins so they can go around saying, "See, we told you if you didn't vote for the "R" a dem would win it!"
This is what happens when one needs to move the common sense Republican, Hoffman to a different line, Conservative on the ballot.
It's like herding cats. Some potential voters get left behind. There are probably a bunch of Republicans in the district who have no idea what the differences are between Hoffman and Dede. They will still pull the lever for Dede.
If Hoffman had been put on the Republican line and the Conservative line, he would be winning in a landslide.
Got some sort of link to that claim?
Not what I'd call a ringing endorsement of Hoffman.
We can only hope that Biden succeeds.....................in saying something really, really, really stupid.
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