Time will tell, but I just don’t see with 22% undecided, a 4 point lead holding. Hoffman already has the conservative vote locked, up and the D has the socialist dem block locked up.. the 22% undecided are the “moderate” voters, Ans likelihood is that the D will get more of then than Hoffman will. The D needs to get about 20% of them to regain the 4 points hes back he’ll certainly get that much of them. The question is what will happen to the remaining 80%?? If Hoffman gets anything less than even money vs those that break for the D in that 80%, the D wins.
Given those that have right leanings will have 2 choices, while those with leftward leanings only have 1, Hoffman’s looking at a tough nut to crack to pull it off.
He may, but I certainly don’t think that one is a sure bet by any stretch.
NJ, love to see it happen, but basically that one is dead heat, and we all know NJ can fabricate votes out of thin air to save a D, so even being up by a point or two in the polls for an R doesn’t mean a win.
Time will tell and I hope the Dems take loses across the board, but the important thing is as Goes VA, so Go the Blue Dogs! You paying attention Blue Dogs? You are DOA in ‘10 you keep being Fauxbama and Pelosi and Reid’s lap dogs.
I have to think that going strictly by the numbers Christie will win. Rasmussen has Christie at 49-49 fav/unfav while Corzine is at a whopping 41-57 rating. It’s just really, really difficult to win with those numbers even though the race is technically tight. Of course I realize that NJ is historically a teaser/joke state so anything is possible. I say Christie wins by 3-4%.
With Hoffman I tend to agree with your analysis. The dynamics are harder to judge because while both races have three parties this one has the bigger breakup with the last place candidate (Scozzafava) polling in at around 20%. It’s hard to judge because the two polls showing Hoffman up 4-5% don’t even tap 400 LVs, while the Kos/R2000 poll taps 600 LVs and shows a dead heat. I think Hoffman probably has a very marginal lead but that the large amount of undecideds are probably Scozzafava holdouts and independents. Hoffman has done such a remarkable job it’s hard to imagine that those still holding out might have yet to settle on him rather than, say, disaffected Scozzafava voters who will more than likely either vote for her, stay home, or even vote for Owens out of spite.
So basically I wouldn’t place bets on that one although he may squeeze by with a point or two. Hard to say.
We definitely clobber in Virginia though.