Posted on 10/28/2009 6:35:01 AM PDT by ScottinVA
New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine leads Republican challenger Christopher Christie for the first time in their five-month slugfest, on top 43 - 38 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independent candidate Christopher Daggett has 13 percent, with 5 percent undecided.
This compares to a 41 - 40 percent Christie lead, with 14 percent for Daggett, in an October 14 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.
Among Daggett supporters, 38 percent say they might change their mind: 43 percent say Christie is their second choice, while 27 percent say Gov. Corzine is number two.
Only 12 percent of Christie voters and 19 percent of Corzine backers say they might change their mind.
Corzine leads 79 - 8 percent among Democratic likely voters, with 10 percent for Daggett. Christie leads 79 - 7 percent among Republicans, with 9 percent for Daggett, and 45 - 30 percent among independent voters, with 20 percent for Daggett.
New Jersey voters disapprove 54 - 39 percent of the job Corzine is doing, still negative, but his best overall approval rating in months. Independent voters disapprove 68 - 29 percent.
"You could see it coming. Gov. Jon Corzine's numbers crept steadily up and Christopher Christie's steadily shrank and now, for the first time, we have Corzine ahead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
(Excerpt) Read more at quinnipiac.edu ...
um you do know that Daggett is about as conservative as Corzine right? he is a lefty. the only reason he is siphoning off any votes from Christie is due to the fact that he is not Corzine. give working class lunchbox Dems someone else to vote for who doesnt have an R next to his name.
agreed and well said
I thought you might like to take a look at some of these polls/articles taken right before (and one after) the 1993 NJ election when Whitman (R) beat incumbent Dem Jim Florio:
http://slerp.rutgers.edu/retrieve.php?id=96-1 (Florio + 8)
http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/20/nyregion/florio-whitman-debate-zeroes-in-on-ethics.html (NYT claiming Whitman trails by “double digits” in Independent polls)
http://www.edweek.org/login.html?source=http://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/1993/10/27/08nj.h13.html&destination=http://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/1993/10/27/08nj.h13.html&levelId=2100 (read the first paragraph and look at the date of the article)
http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/34217/florio-dominated-newspaper-endorsements-vs-whitman (very short article, but a tell all)
From www.dartmouth.edu:
This was election week and the pollsters had some
explaining to do in the governor’s race in New Jersey.
The 1993 elections: Polls; New Jersey voting experts
try to figure out where they went wrong.
The New York Times, 4 Nov. 1993, B9
Elizabeth Kolbert
The polls typically were giving Florio a ten point
advantage going into the election. Whitman was the
winner by a small margin. This article considers what
could have gone wrong. Factors mentioned were
Whitman’s final campaign blitz in which she presented
herself in a “warmer light”, the general volatility of
the New Jersey electorate and a higher than expected
turnout in traditionally Republican counties.
One expert suggested the polls themselves might have
done the damage. Those, who did not like Florio but
thought he was not quite as bad as Whitman, may have
stayed home thinking they could get Florio without
having to personally vote for him.
Only one publicly released poll, by the Asbury Park
Press, had the race an even race. This poll was the
least professional of the lot, conducted by an editor
who confessed to being “very nervous” when he saw how
much his poll was at variance with the others.
it can be in a three person race
look if Daggett was not in this thing he Christie would probably be over 50% even if just barely
exactly Daggett is being pushed by the media to help out Corzine plain and simple
“It would be interesting to see an actual study - but, with the exception of Ross Perot, I can’t think of many other 3rd Party candidates that actually hurt the incumbent. They usually siphon off votes from the insurgent candidate by appealing to those people that are already disillusioned with, and unlikely to vote for the incumbent “
Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose party lost the white house for the Republicans (Taft being the incubment) and we wound up with the Dem Wilson.
His main issue against Corzine is tax and spend, job killing and people moving out of NJ. He said almost half a million have left the state in this decade. People just can’t afford to live there.
I think a governor is different from a senator or congressman or president, in that if for instance I lived in NY state and Rudy was running for governor and his opponent was any of your typical lefty Dems, I would vote for Rudy. He ran NYC on a very economically sound basis and was very tough on crime. Do I disagree with him on other things? Profoundly.
But it IS a state executive, not a vote in Congress nor a President of the United States. I could live with that in a state like New York where liberal Dems abound. However, I would not choose Rudy in a primary for the GOP Presidential nomination. And thankfully, in Texas, I wouldn’t have to choose him for my governor.
I think we need to pick our battles, smartly. In NY 23, I agree with all who have endorsed Hoffman over the GOP party-insider pick. Even if it means the Dem wins that district - which I pray not...it’s been GOP since 1870 for cryin’ out loud! - in that situation it makes sense to show the GOP they need to go more conservative, not more liberal.
“Oh, won’t the bellyaching be fun when Dems lose both VA and NJ??”
THAT is the best reason to hope Christie wins
Ummmmmm............... B.S. !
The other one that comes to mind is Ralph Nadar, especially in 2000. Sure, Gore wasn't a true incumbent, but he was for all practical purposes, Clinton's third term. I've read some conflicting reports, but it may be true that Nadar's candidacy did actually hurt Gore - the de facto incumbent.
Like I said, it would be interesting to have someone scientifically study the effect, both on national and statewide elections, to understand the dynamic third-party candidates really create.
I don’t think it is just the voters. The fix is in and I will bet the 2010 elections are going to go the same way.
The electorate/election process has been completely comprimised.
There are no fair elections anymore. It is all a sham. They have people in key spots regarding the election process. I am convinced of this.
Quinnipiac always leans sharply left.
CAN YOU SAY PUSH POLL?
“um you do know that Daggett is about as conservative as Corzine right? “
I don’t know anything about him. If what you say is true, it looks like Jersey is screwed, no matter who wins.
It’s a truly, truly ugly state. The Jersey shore is ugly, tacky and polluted. Trenton is a nightmare. The DemonRats control everything. Most of the state is either a god-fosaken pine barren or a paved road to NYC. The people there are flaming liberal, moronic and hopeless. Too bad Corzine survived his high speed crash!
-PJ
The margin of fraud strikes again.
it is all voter turn out
and
dead voting
and
selecting which absentee ballots to find and which a absentee ballots to “disapear”.
Because it would kill him with the independents and ensure a Corzine win. His campaign must tag Daggett as a liberal and keep the focus on Corzine's negatives, so that the 38% Daggets that say they may switch will break Christie. Breaking right would be a bad move.
We keep shoobies in the right places.
“I don’t know anything about him. If what you say is true, it looks like Jersey is screwed, no matter who wins.”
yep he is a social lefty with supposed fiscal responsibility. now what that means is that he would cut some taxes and raise a bunch more with new exciting ones. basically it would be a tax increase in total.
Christie is at least against abortion and supposedly wants to cut spending and taxation. of course as you say it is NJ so who knows but i can tell you this if Christie does win NJ and McDonell wins VA, Obama is going to be majorly embarrassed. Also a win in NJ gives the Rs a chance to do some gerrymandering in a redistricting year possibly picking up a house seat there.
Why can’t Sarah go out there and rev up the republican base to back Christy?
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