David Harmer Might Be Running the Right Race at the Right Time

In the other special House election this year, in California’s 10th district, Republican David Harmer and Democrat John Garamendi squared off in a debate last night. One of my readers who was there noted, “Garamendi was stiff and pasty, he was not happy that Harmer supporters were there 5-1. Harmer was smooth and in his element. Will be posted on YouTube later tonight. Good moderator.”

I can’t quite come out and say Harmer’s going to pull out an upset, but it feels like the ingredients for one are starting to come together. First, it’s a special election, and so most of the traditional turnout models don’t apply.

Second, John Garamendi feels like the wrong candidate with the wrong biography for the Democrats to run at this moment. <snip>

<snip> Yet in the last two gubernatorial races, Arnold Schwarzenegger won this district both times; in 2006, he won every community in the district. Yes, he’s not popular now, and yes, most Republicans now swear a bit when they mention his name, but Arnie carried 42.2 percent in the recall and 56.2 percent in the 2006 gubernatorial race. So it’s not like the district is full of voters who vote for the candidate with the “D” after his name no matter what.

The argument that Democrats will hold this seat tend to begin and end with the perception that it’s just a heavily Democratic district, and that’s that. But what happens if Democrats aren’t all that enthused about their candidate, while Republicans are mad as hell about what’s going on in Washington?

More information about this race in California. Everything I read says this is probably a winnable race this year, in spite of the district being gerrymandered to be a “safe Democrat seat.” The race has polled in single digits. Seven points if you go by historical turnout models (which might not be accurate for a special election), two points if you weight it for the turnout in the primary for this special election. That is very close in a district that has gone 2 to 1 for the Democrat in the past 3 Congressional races.

The Dems have a less than stellar candidate. Democrats in this state aren’t very popular right now. And this district, even with the current map, has elected Republicans (OK, RINOs, but still non-Democrats) in the past.

I am contacting the NRCC to ask why they are supporting Scozzafava in the race in upstate New York, and why they are ignoring David Harmer in this California’s 10th district. Here are the numbers if anyone else wants to call:

from the NRCC "contact us" web page:

Contact the NRCC

Address:

320 First Street, SE
Washington, DC 20003

Departments:

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)'s departments can be reached below:

General Email
website@nrcc.org

Executive
Phone: 202-479-7000

Administration
Phone: 202-479-7000

Political
Phone: 202-479-7000

Finance
Phone: 202-479-7000

Communications
Phone: 202-479-7070

eCampaign
Phone: 202-479-7000

Also, perhaps those of us who donated to the RNC or RCCC should ask for our money back so we can support the conservative candidates of our choice.

Other threads related to this California 10th District race:

More threads ...

From the desk of
cc2k:

Candidates I support: Doug Hoffman for Congress, NY 23rd (PayPal), David Harmer for Congress, CA 10th (website for info).

Please, spread the word about these important special elections on November 3, 209: New York’s 23rd congressional district and California’s 10th congressional district.

oldskuulconserv wrote:

just like hoffman

Kind of like Hoffman. The difference here is that Harmer is running as a Republican. Also, California had a primary for their special election, and Harmer won that primary.

The other difference is that so far, the RNC and the NRCC have sat out this race. No support for Republicans who are also conservative. They only support Republicans who are opposed by conservatives.

Also, there has been no support from PACS or independent groups in this race.

I have been spreading the word as much as possible. But more people need to call places like the NRCC and the National Republican Trust PAC. We need to see if we can get more support for Harmer in this race. This could flip a seat to the Republicans, with a fairly conservative candidate.

From the desk of
cc2k:

I agree. I truly enjoy working on David Harmer’s campaign. Last Saturday we had a busload of people come up from Los Angeles County to Walnut Creek to help with precinct walking. There have been volunteers from San Mateo, San Francisco, Alameda, San Joaquin, Yolo, Napa,and Solano Counties in to help Contra Costa get this fantastic candidate elected. (Sorry if I missed any other counties.)

On Wednesday, the Tea Party Express is coming to Walnut Creek on their national tour, and they are stopping just a few blocks from Harmer’s office. Harmer will be speaking at the Tea Party.

Remember, even if you can’t vote for David Harmer because you don’t live in his district, if he is elected, he will be voting for you. Please go to his website to find out how you can help:

http://www.harmerforcongress.com

I do live in his district and have already voted for him (along with my wife). Harmer sounds like a solid conservative, which would be a breath of fresh air in the Bay Area.

The good news is Garamendi is a tired, old, retread, liberal democrat. I think these are the type of candidates that are going to be in real trouble in ‘10 and ‘12 as Obama pushes us further toward socialism/fascism.

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