An Upset in California?

Wall Street Journal ^ | OCTOBER 19, 2009, 7:50 P.M. ET | John Fund

[cc2k]

The New Jersey and Virginia governor's races aren't the only contests in which Democrats are feeling pressure from the growing unpopularity of President Obama's policies. A GOP upset may also be in the making in a California House special election on November 3. Democratic Lt. Governor John Garamendi and Republican attorney David Harmer are battling for the Bay Area congressional seat vacated by Democrat Ellen Tauscher, who left to join the Obama state department. Normally a staunch Democratic seat, there is a growing chance it could swing to the GOP given the state's latest budget collapse and the 13% approval rating of the state legislature.

Mr. Harmer has had no trouble portraying Mr. Garamendi as a big part of the state's fiscal mess. Mr. Garamendi, a true-blue liberal who has held various offices for 30 years, clearly relishes the old tax-and-spend formula that got California into its current fiscal hole. "It's not true that raising taxes harms the economy," he declared at a recent economic forum, where he called for revisions to Proposition 13, the popular limit on local property taxes. He insisted that California's woes "are a revenue problem, not a spending problem."

Mr. Garamendi also appears to have a careless attitude about facts. His new campaign mailing attacks Mr. Harmer for telling a Utah newspaper that he supports moving American jobs to other countries. There's one problem: The person quoted in the article is an entirely different David Harmer, a former official at the Utah State Department of Community and Economic Development.

[cc2k]

This is a race I just discovered yesterday.

It seems the RCCC has been ignoring this race, while going all in with hundreds of thousands of dollars supporting a radical leftist in upstate New York.

This candidate actually won a primary, and has views very different from his opponent on most of the issues.

From John Fund’s piece here, I saw this:

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A recent poll using conventional turnout models by Wilson Research Strategies shows Mr. Garamendi with a 41% to 34% lead in the district, a less than stellar performance.

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He goes on to say there are reasons this “conventional turnout model” might be optimistic for Garamendi. Doing a bit more research, I found this on the Wilson Research Strategies blog site:

from The Hill: Republican in CA Special Election Competitive:

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Republican David Harmer’s campaign sponsored a poll in late September that showed Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D) with a seven-point lead on Harmer, 41-34.

The Wilson Research Strategies poll notes that its numbers assume Republicans will turn out at about 29 percent – their share of the registration. But if the numbers are weighted according to primary turnout, when Republicans represented 35 percent of voters, Garamendi’s lead is down to 39-37.

The poll also says Garamendi’s favorable number dropped by 3 percent between early August and late September (he finished first in an open primary Sept. 1), while his unfavorable number rose 6 percent. The generic ballot, over that span, changed from a 55-29 Democratic advantage to a 44-40 Democratic edge.

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The RCCC should be stepping up to the plate for this candidate in this race. This could be a Republican gain, with a candidate who supports at least some of the party platform. This could even offset their disaster in upstate New York.

This unemployed FReeper sent David Harmer a $9.12 donation, and I wish I could do more. This is another reason not to give money to the RCCC, but rather to support conservative candidates directly yourself.

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From the desk of cc2k:

Candidates I support: Doug Hoffman for Congress, NY 23rd (PayPal), David Harmer for Congress, CA 10th (website for info). Please, spread the word about these important special elections on November 3, 209: New York’s 23rd congressional district and California’s 10th congressional district.

[WashingtonSource]

I’m glad John Fund reported on this race. Another chance for a GOP victory. I like it.

[kellynla]

[cc2k]

Thanks for you posts on the other thread. Check this piece out, and the bits I found at the pollster’s site linked in post #1.

You seem to hold the opposite opinion, but I though maybe you would look at this and let me know. Is it really closer than you think? Or did this pollster overlook something important?

My biggest gripe is that the RCCC is absent in this race. From what I can see, Harmer has been left out on his own, while the RCCC concentrates on defending the indefensible in upstate New York.

The numbers in the poll here seems to say that a few hundred thousand $$$$ to boost name recognition and address the issues might actually flip this CA-10 seat.

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From the desk of cc2k:

Candidates I support: Doug Hoffman for Congress, NY 23rd (PayPal), David Harmer for Congress, CA 10th (website for info). Please, spread the word about these important special elections on November 3, 209: New York’s 23rd congressional district and California’s 10th congressional district.

[americanophile]

John Garamendi is increasingly the California Democratic equivalent to Harold Stassen...he’s run for everything in the state. Enough already - get a job Garamendi.

[cc2k]

wrote:

Your message is a bit confused. I get the point of your sign. Will your sign happen before the RCCC steps up to support this candidate? Or are you saying that will happen before this district goes Republican?

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From the desk of cc2k:

Candidates I support: Doug Hoffman for Congress, NY 23rd (PayPal), David Harmer for Congress, CA 10th (website for info). Please, spread the word about these important special elections on November 3, 209: New York’s 23rd congressional district and California’s 10th congressional district.

[Slyfox]

Perfect graphic!

[Jagdgewehr]

Garamendi's handlers have "stuck with the smear and said the bottom line is still that Harmer doesn't support President Obama's efforts to create jobs."

I would like to think that Californians all would wake up and see this tripe for what it is. Especially when this state is so deep in the toilet. It might be wishful thinking on my part, but I'm nonetheless hopeful.

[Brilliant]

He insisted that California's woes "are a revenue problem, not a spending problem."

A revenue problem caused by a spending problem. If you can't see that, then you don't belong in government.

[Cicero]

It’s surprising that anyone would vote Republican at this moment, with that jackass Arnie in the governor’s seat, spending like a drunken sailor (no insult intended to Freeper sailors). He’s at least as responsible for the current mess as the idiot Dems in the legislature.

[kellynla]

yes

[Professional Engineer]

Democratic Lt. Governor John Garamendi and Republican attorney David Harmer are battling for the Bay Area congressional seat

Gee, the gay area is about as far as you can get from the rural Ag country of Calaveras County where Garamendi hails from. I'm sure he can fully related to his proposed constituents.

[Attention Surplus Disorder]

Harmer appears to be a very straight ahead straight-talking Conservative. As far as I’m concerned, CA needs to elect some Republicans, or face budgetary disaster. I’ve heard a radio interview or two from him, he sounds good.

Garamendi is without quesion part of the CA state Dem apparatus, and has not only offered nothing new in terms of anything, he’s come out in favor of “raising revenue”. CA is already being targeted with enormous tax increases to pay for a profligate state government that operates in a totally opaque manner and cedes important authority to CARB CA Air Resources Board, a fanatical cabal of leftist environuts who are determined to outdo anyone else on the planet enacting industry-killing regulations and taxes. This was the board responsible for the MTBE gasoline additive fiasco, which cost CA at least $30 billion in cleanup costs. They are further responsible for new regulations forcing the replacement of hundreds of thousands of perfectly good diesel engines. For other diesels, they have implemented another set of regs that force the use of filters to trap particulate matter, but which reduce overall fuel efficiency by about 6-10%. ALL of these regulations are implemented without any sort of testing; they are all, like all liberal programs, enacted on a “we know better” basis. In this case, CARB has relied upon the statistics used by this guy Tran, who claimed he had a PHd in statistics and has since been proven a liar. NEVERTHELESS, there has been no re-examination of his crednetioals, nor his methods, nor his results. CARB insists upon relying on a known fraud!

There couldn’t be a better example of ignorant dolts voting for “same old, same old” out of pure momentum and name recognition than voting for Garamendi. He’s the likely winner; it all depends IMO upon Republican turnout. I would really like to see him trashed.

[Arizona Carolyn]

He sucked as insurance commissioner, why would they elect him to anything else?

[SmithL]

During the primaries, the other Dems all portrayed Garamendi as a carpetbagger, but he proved that name recognition is half the battle in California politics (but we already knew that).

I like Harmer and even voted for him, but he’s going to have a tough time of this election. The District is a whole lot bluer than it was when Bill Baker held that seat, and Harmer isn’t getting help from anyone. The Contra Costa Republican party is in complete disarray, and the CAGOP is worse than useless, in my opinion.

[cc2k]

SmithL wrote:

Harmer isn’t getting help from anyone. The Contra Costa Republican party is in complete disarray, and the CAGOP is worse than useless, in my opinion.

I figured that. Neither party is listed as contributing on the FEC summary for this race.

Are there any grass roots groups in the area? TEA Party groups or 9-12 groups or anything like that?

And for the election, who has the ground game?

I just wonder if this isn’t an opportunity for grass roots conservatives to step in and do what the Party has refused to do.

I don’t know what to make of the race. Several here think it is unwinnable. Then you see John Fund’s piece and the info from this polling organization (admittedly, a poll paid for by Harmer’s campaign) which seems to say it could be winnable.

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From the desk of cc2k:

Candidates I support: Doug Hoffman for Congress, NY 23rd (PayPal), David Harmer for Congress, CA 10th (website for info). Please, spread the word about these important special elections on November 3, 209: New York’s 23rd congressional district and California’s 10th congressional district.

[Theodore R.]

I think that is one of those seats geared to elect absolutely any Democrat, like the seats of Lloyd Doggett in TX or Barney Frank in MA too.

[phillyfanatic]

I love your foundational ideology. I have been a conserv since I was 15 and now am 70. In Ca., it does seem that the scuzzy Dems in the Leg. have redrawn districts to give many, many districts for safe Dem seats. The Pubs have few but they are solid too. The GOP never seems to really speak out on this issue. Harmer is not a bad candidate but the Left owns most of that district. Like the NY 23, rd, who I support with Doug financially and with prayers, the Stupid Party is almost always the GOP and DEDE, if she were not there, would give that election to Doug. Unfortunately, unless GOP voters really get it that DEDE is not a GOPers with any principles, Owens will win that election too. Keep up your civility, which I can see and congratulate. You seem to be much more civil than I am when I blast the Left. Blessings for that.