It seems the RCCC has been ignoring this race, while going all in with hundreds of thousands of dollars supporting a radical leftist in upstate New York.
This candidate actually won a primary, and has views very different from his opponent on most of the issues.
From John Fund’s piece here, I saw this:
He goes on to say there are reasons this “conventional turnout model” might be optimistic for Garamendi. Doing a bit more research, I found this on the Wilson Research Strategies blog site:
A recent poll using conventional turnout models by Wilson Research Strategies shows Mr. Garamendi with a 41% to 34% lead in the district, a less than stellar performance.
from The Hill: Republican in CA Special Election Competitive:The RCCC should be stepping up to the plate for this candidate in this race. This could be a Republican gain, with a candidate who supports at least some of the party platform. This could even offset their disaster in upstate New York.
Republican David Harmer’s campaign sponsored a poll in late September that showed Lt. Gov. John Garamendi (D) with a seven-point lead on Harmer, 41-34.
The Wilson Research Strategies poll notes that its numbers assume Republicans will turn out at about 29 percent – their share of the registration. But if the numbers are weighted according to primary turnout, when Republicans represented 35 percent of voters, Garamendi’s lead is down to 39-37.
The poll also says Garamendi’s favorable number dropped by 3 percent between early August and late September (he finished first in an open primary Sept. 1), while his unfavorable number rose 6 percent. The generic ballot, over that span, changed from a 55-29 Democratic advantage to a 44-40 Democratic edge.
This unemployed FReeper sent David Harmer a $9.12 donation, and I wish I could do more. This is another reason not to give money to the RCCC, but rather to support conservative candidates directly yourself.
| From the desk of cc2k: |
Candidates I support: Doug Hoffman for Congress, NY 23rd (PayPal), David Harmer for Congress, CA 10th (website for info). Please, spread the word about these important special elections on November 3, 209: New York’s 23rd congressional district and California’s 10th congressional district. |
I’m glad John Fund reported on this race. Another chance for a GOP victory. I like it.
You seem to hold the opposite opinion, but I though maybe you would look at this and let me know. Is it really closer than you think? Or did this pollster overlook something important?
My biggest gripe is that the RCCC is absent in this race. From what I can see, Harmer has been left out on his own, while the RCCC concentrates on defending the indefensible in upstate New York.
The numbers in the poll here seems to say that a few hundred thousand $$$$ to boost name recognition and address the issues might actually flip this CA-10 seat.
| From the desk of cc2k: |
Candidates I support: Doug Hoffman for Congress, NY 23rd (PayPal), David Harmer for Congress, CA 10th (website for info). Please, spread the word about these important special elections on November 3, 209: New York’s 23rd congressional district and California’s 10th congressional district. |
John Garamendi is increasingly the California Democratic equivalent to Harold Stassen...he’s run for everything in the state. Enough already - get a job Garamendi.
I would like to think that Californians all would wake up and see this tripe for what it is. Especially when this state is so deep in the toilet. It might be wishful thinking on my part, but I'm nonetheless hopeful.
A revenue problem caused by a spending problem. If you can't see that, then you don't belong in government.
It’s surprising that anyone would vote Republican at this moment, with that jackass Arnie in the governor’s seat, spending like a drunken sailor (no insult intended to Freeper sailors). He’s at least as responsible for the current mess as the idiot Dems in the legislature.
Gee, the gay area is about as far as you can get from the rural Ag country of Calaveras County where Garamendi hails from. I'm sure he can fully related to his proposed constituents.
Harmer appears to be a very straight ahead straight-talking Conservative. As far as I’m concerned, CA needs to elect some Republicans, or face budgetary disaster. I’ve heard a radio interview or two from him, he sounds good.
Garamendi is without quesion part of the CA state Dem apparatus, and has not only offered nothing new in terms of anything, he’s come out in favor of “raising revenue”. CA is already being targeted with enormous tax increases to pay for a profligate state government that operates in a totally opaque manner and cedes important authority to CARB CA Air Resources Board, a fanatical cabal of leftist environuts who are determined to outdo anyone else on the planet enacting industry-killing regulations and taxes. This was the board responsible for the MTBE gasoline additive fiasco, which cost CA at least $30 billion in cleanup costs. They are further responsible for new regulations forcing the replacement of hundreds of thousands of perfectly good diesel engines. For other diesels, they have implemented another set of regs that force the use of filters to trap particulate matter, but which reduce overall fuel efficiency by about 6-10%. ALL of these regulations are implemented without any sort of testing; they are all, like all liberal programs, enacted on a “we know better” basis. In this case, CARB has relied upon the statistics used by this guy Tran, who claimed he had a PHd in statistics and has since been proven a liar. NEVERTHELESS, there has been no re-examination of his crednetioals, nor his methods, nor his results. CARB insists upon relying on a known fraud!
There couldn’t be a better example of ignorant dolts voting for “same old, same old” out of pure momentum and name recognition than voting for Garamendi. He’s the likely winner; it all depends IMO upon Republican turnout. I would really like to see him trashed.