Firearms Bubble May Be Bursting

The NY Times ^ | 22 October 2009 | ROBERT CYRAN and UNA GALANI

[Erik Latranyi]

Cerberus plans to float the gun maker Freedom Group soon. It better hurry. President Obama’s election victory sent weapon sales — and the valuations of firearms producers — higher. Falling backlogs hint that sales could plunge. This gun bubble may backfire.

[Erik Latranyi]

Background checks over the last 12 months, which are a leading indicator of gun sales, were 50 percent higher than the levels reported during the middle years of the decade.

I hate to tell the NY Times this, but background checks are NOT a leading indicator.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Hey, NYT, I'm just waiting for ammo prices to come down.

[Travis McGee]

Clueless, as you wuould expect from Manhattanites discussing guns.

[mountainlion]

Klinton started the gun scares. AK 47s went up a thousand dollars. Obama is just experiencing his first bout with guns. Klinton went 8 years at it. Threaten a gun tax and the black market will be larger than what we have seen. Threaten import restrictions and things will go up again.

[Oldpuppymax]

In the midst of the most serious economic destruction in memory and the Times is GLEEFUL about the coming tribulations of yet another industry. I have NEWS for you, NY Times...gun and ammunition sales will continue to expand over the course of the next several years, albeit not at the rate seen recently. Actual Americans are preparing to defend themselves from the most dangerous criminals in the country—those who inhabit Washington.

[hoosierham]

Guns are a VERY durable form of goods,so their is a much smaller replacement market than for cars.The cylic nature of gun purchases revolves around new technology introductions and politics.Once everyone who wants a pistol,rifle,and shotgun has one ,then you have to sell more based on special features or “sizzle”.

[texmexis best]

I agree with your analysis. Many new customer in the mix.

I would also add that there are many, many people who were hurt early in the recession and who have not yet been able to purchase a gun. I know several of them and they intend to purchase guns when they can make enough to afford it. The gun gun bubble is not over. Maybe taking a breather, but not over.

[Grampa Dave]

“Clueless, as you wuould expect from Manhattanites discussing guns.”

When you see bs opeds like these posing as news, you have to wonder if Jayson Blair and his hot tub for the mentally ill gays are still going at the Slimes. It is amazing how liberal wet dreams appear as gospel/real news at the Slimes.

[Lockbar]

I've always had a bunch of guns, and have bought at least a dozen in the past 12 months. Not because of fear of an Obama law, more because I see things falling apart socially overall. In the past couple of months I have seen gun prices drop a bit since last January. Some guns like AR-15’s are a couple hundred $ less.

[fireman15]

The price of some types of guns such as AK varients has declined a bit. There is still a severe shortage of various types of ammunition and components such as primers and also reloading equipment. All of the people who got into it this last year are creating more demand for ammunition and they will likely continue to do so into the future. Then there those of us who are stocking up in case future restrictions such as AB 962 recently passed in California keep coming down the line.

The ironic thing is that fear of government restrictions has created more firearms enthusiasts in the last year than the NRA could have in ten years.

[Publius6961]

What is obvious to me is the way the losers whistle past the graveyard.

The continuing shortage of ammo is the best barometer.

Idjits.

[Travis McGee]

Exactly!

[Zeppo]

Once everyone who wants a pistol,rifle,and shotgun has one ,then you have to sell more based on special features or “sizzle”.

Or, just as likely from my experience, "Once everyone who wants a pistol, rifle and shotgun has somewhere between two and ten of each, then you have to sell more based on special features or “sizzle”."

[TYVets]

Then there those of us who are stocking up in case future restrictions such as AB 962 recently passed in California keep coming down the line.

Will The State of California control purchases with a California FOID Card? It would be simple for a magnetic swipe type card to control your ammo purchases.

The same could be done with a Illinois FOID card?

Does New Jersey have a similar card?

Maryland, Massachusetts are friendly states for gun owners?

It may be a stretch to say that any "May Issue" state for concealed carry is not firearm friendly.

But it would so easy for a computer/magnetic card system to be in the future for ammo/one gun per month purchasers.

Every time a law in any state is passed that limits 50 rounds per month the ripple effect will be felt in all states.

The demand is there, most shooters will be using up their ammo as they have in the past, but let new laws come down the road and the rush to the gun shop is off and running.

[Red in Blue PA]

I have it on good word that ATK (Federal,Speer,CCI) is raising their prices of ammo by 5% as of January 1, 2010......so much for the theory of an ammo bubble.

[Red in Blue PA]

Indeed! Guns and ammo are two of the only things still made in this country!

[ctdonath2]

And AFAIK they are the ONLY truly durable goods & consumables. Dang near everything else is designed to either wear out or rot within a few years.

[Lancey Howard]

It’s hard to believe these days, but just 40 years ago the New York Times was considered a respectable, relatively trustworthy newspaper by many people. My social studies teacher even made all of us in my 11th grade class subscribe to it in 1969.

[fireman15]

It is very easy to go through 50 rounds in just a few minutes. Where do these guys come up with these numbers? It would be like telling a person into car racing that they could only use five gallons of gas a month. I could never afford this hobby without reloading my own ammo. The thing that makes me the most nervous is when legislators start talking about restricting re-loaders.

[Knitebane]

My favorite plinker is my 1933 Remington Model 34.

Know anyone that routinely uses anything made 76 years ago?