Report: Health care costs to rise faster with legislation than with nothing

Dallas Morning News ^ | 10/22/2009

[markomalley]

The nation's medical costs will keep spiraling upward even faster than they are now under Democratic legislation pending in the House, a report from government economic experts concluded Wednesday.

Republicans said the report is a warning that health care legislation is likely to fall short of President Barack Obama's goal of "bending the cost curve" by slowing medical inflation.

The Obama administration challenged the analysis, saying it is out of date because the House bill is being rewritten to bring costs under tighter control and will be merged eventually with other legislation.

The report from the Office of the Actuary, which does long-range cost estimates for Medicare, carried an unusual disclaimer, saying that it "does not represent an official position" of the Health and Human Services Department or the rest of the administration.

Unlike estimates that have focused on the legislation's impact on the federal deficit, the actuaries' report looked at total costs, public and private, over the next 10 years. It found that the nation's health care tab would increase somewhat more rapidly with the legislation than if nothing is done. The main reason: Newly insured people will seek care.

The nation's health care tab, now at about $2.5 trillion annually, is projected to approach $4.7 trillion in 2019 without the legislation.

With the legislation, national health care spending would be nearly $4.8 trillion in 2019.

[markomalley]

Devastating report that will be buried on page A-36, middle column, below the fold, web-only edition in most major papers

[p. henry]

Government does not control prices in the long term. Supply and demand do. The House plan will constrict the supply of medical services and stimulate demand. If anything, the actuary’s report probably understates the problem.

[AFPhys]

Just wait until we discover how the costs skyrocket when 1/3 of the doctors decide to retire or completely leave any part of the medical system that dictates they have to deal with the government.

There is no indication that this estimate took that certain eventuality into account.