I do wonder, in hindsight, if Rudy would've beaten Obama.
Good question.
McCain, for his faults, has a pro-life and pro-2A record, which made it tolerable for folks (myself included) to hold their noses and vote for.
IMO, Rudy wouldn't have gotten the core conservative vote, but would have gotten the uneducated independents who just remembered him as the "9/11 guy". He probably would have picked Sanford as his running mate, as well, which would have sounded good, but look how that turned out.