[neverdem]

I didn't notice any mea culpas for missing what happened since the late 1990s with global warming, and with other variables such as cosmic rays, sunspots, etc., but I thought I would post it.

[Post Toasties]

“Wrong but useful” has a stench about like “Fake but Accurate”, but is really just a form of “Garbage In, Garbage Out”.

[DB]

Someday climate models will be very useful.

That day hasn’t arrived yet.

The climate models predicted a specific fingerprint of CO2 induced warming that did not happen. Specifically that atmospheric warming at higher altitudes around the equator would indicate C02 is driving warming. Yet those increases in temperature in that area of the atmosphere have not been detected.

No climate model predicted the cooling trend of the last eight to ten years.

The simple fact is climate models to date have been a total failure at predicting the future with any certainty. To bet trillions of dollars and peoples well being on these failed models at this time is plain foolish.

[AndyTheBear]

Unsurprisingly, on climate contrarian sites, such models are described in all sorts of unflattering terms and dismissed out of hand as fundamentally useless. However, in more rational forums...

Ah, so we should summarily presume "contrarian" sites are uniformly irrational?

An argument of such rationality it is unassailable...since it has not logic basis in the first place.

[piytar]

Aslo didn’t see any mention of water vapor.

Any model that misses short term trends, say over a decade, cannot hit long term trends for the simple reason that the relevant errors propagate and compound. It’s a basic signal to noise issue.

“Wrong but Useful” is just another version of “Fake but Accurate.” In other words, garbage.

[neverdem]

Fixing bones with dissolvable glass

NVIDIA's Fermi: Architected for Tesla, 3 Billion Transistors in 2010

Vitamin D Lack, Fructose Excess Linked To High Blood Pressure

New Food Sprinkle Convinces the Brain to Stop Over-Eating

FReepmail me if you want on or off my health and science ping list.

[sourcery]

• Global warming: Our best guess is likely wrong
• Proof that CO2’s warming effect is exaggerated

[ApplegateRanch]

Wrong (in any realistic predictions of future climate) but useful (for achieving one-world political and economic goals).

[steelyourfaith]

"... Gavin Schmidt argues that recent advances are making such models an essential tool in informing policy choices ...

Ha! The climate computer models remain Garbage-In/Garbage Out information, and are essential only to perpetrate a hoax.

 

Beam me to Planet Gore !

[Royal Wulff]

Gavin Schmidt should be sent to prison for fraud, racketeering, and felony child abuse.

[norwaypinesavage]

My comments to Physics World:
“All climate models are wrong, but some of them are useful” is a profound observation on modeling, but deserves further discussion. The usefulness of models which produce incorrect predictions lies not in the publication of the predictions, but rather in the insight that comes from the development of the model. This is an equally profound statement.

Models which are developed with a political agenda, and are used for political purposes are neither accurate, nor useful. I am sorry to say, but I believe that a very large percentage of the published climate modeling results fall into that category.

[devere]

Unfortunately “scientists” now share the esteem enjoyed by used car salesmen and politicians.

[Norman Rogers]

My continuing question about these climate models is this:

If the (original) climate models justified the warming hysteria, why have the modelers worked so diligently (and at such great cost) to continually revise their models to account for the errors that are brought to their attention (after each iteration)?

I'm reminded of an old Bugs Bunny cartoon:

Dramatic Personae:

White coated scientist: Elmer Fudd

Laboratory Rabbit: Bugs Bunny

Scenario:

Elmer Fudd brings Bugs a platter holding two carrots, one large and one small.

Bugs selects smaller carrot.

Scenario repeats (twice, as I remember)

Fudd: “Wabbit! Why do you keep picking smaller cawwat?)

Bugs: Because, if I pick the bigger one, you'll stop bwinging me more cawwats!)

And the lesson learned? If the scientists on the public dole (the billions we spend on climate research) admit the science doesn't support their scary predictions) we'll stop giving them carrots.

If their models were so good, why do they continually revise them? I thought (per Al Gore) that the science “was settled”.