I couldn’t rate IL as “leans R” with or without Quinn, it’s still a “lean D.”
MA is complicated, it will be a 3-way race. Patrick is badly vulnerable, but the Dem that was likely to challenge him in the primary opted to switch to run as an Indy (Tim Cahill), and there were also be one of two very far-left RINOs running nominated. Cahill, the Indy, is the best bet for center-right voters, and I think he has a slight edge, but would put it all, 3 way, as a tossup.
NY is R with Paterson, lean D with Cuomo, tossup if Hillary vs. Rudy.
OH may be a lean R, actually.
ME hasn’t elected a GOP Governor since 1990, so I’d put it as tossup over party fatigue, but whomever wins will win by only a plurality, they have a few 3rd parties there that do well. An astonishing 41 (!) candidates are listed as possible entries for all parties.
NM I’d rate as potential tossup. Denish will inherit baggage from Richardson (who has yet another scandal just this week from a boating accident) and if the R’s put up someone decent, they could take it back.
OR - The Dems may have a brutal primary between the Sec of State Bradbury and ex-Gov. Kitzhaber, and if the R’s put up someone respectable, could pull off a win (and OR has gone 28 years without a GOP Governor, obvious party fatigue), I rate this as tossup.
WY - I’m unclear what’s going on here. I thought the term limits was in effect, it states 2 term max. I’d imagine if Freudenthal tries to challenge that, it may bite him. I’d put that alone as a lean R.
HI - I’d still put it at tossup, we have our only real first-tier candidate with Lt Gov Aiona facing off against a too-old Haole moonbat, Abercrombie (and even he may not win the nomination, since the Honolulu Mayor is running, too). Despite it being a fairly heavy Dem lean state, many of the Gubernatorial races have been close over the years, but with the Dems tending to prevail by a modest margin.
RI - Actually, this is a lean I, since the leftist ex-RINO turned Indy Linc Chafee is running, and he will be even more liberal than the eventual Dem nominee, nevermind the R candidate. However, if the R makes a race of it, he might get a plurality if all the liberals split between Chafee and the Dem.
SC - Leans R, since we’re still having that ugly situation down there that has a slim chance of benefitting the Dems.
AZ - I would put it as lean R, regardless of the nominee
CT - I’ve been told Rell may not run again, in which case, it goes to tossup, if not lean D
NV - with Gibbons, leans D, with Sandoval, leans R
There is simply NO WAY Paterson wins the Democratic nomination against Cuomo. If by some miracle, Paterson were to win the Democratic nomination, he'd get slaughtered in the elections.
Meanwhile, Giuliani has yet to confirm that he's going to run. He's been playing coy as usual. And even if Giuliani runs, he's going to find it pretty hard to beat Cuomo. As for Hilary, I really doubt if she even wants to be Governor of any state. She still wants the presidency, and is secretly glad 0bama is slashing and burning.
Let's see here...
IL - Well, on the RAT side it's going to be a brutal primary between Quinn and slick talking pampered politician's kid, state Comptroller Dan Hynes (I wrongly predicted Hynes would beat Obama in the 2004 RAT primary for Senate). Oddly enough the race will be about the perception that Quinn is too much of an insider and tainted by Blago, where the in reality the opposite is true -- Hynes is the party insider and the ultimate combiner. Right now Quinn has a 49% approval-47% disapproval with voters, certainly vulnerable in both the primary and the general. On the GOP side, I suppose combiner Dillard is the slight favorite now due to clout and support from heavy hitters like Jim Thompson, but it's possible to take him out in the primary and the field is wide open with everyone except Andjewski and Schillerstorm having a decent chance of winning the nomination at this point. In certain circumstances -- say a Matt Murphy (R) vs. Pat Quinn (D) race, I would put it as a "lean R", but given the fact the IL GOP is a joke and always manages to shoot themselves in the foot, I'm going to assume lean D at this point in time.
MA - Surprisingly, I would say Tim Cahill (Independent, former Dem) is the favorite at this point, since voters are fed up with Deval Patrick but I doubt they will be willing to return to RINO rule after the whole 1991-2007 RINO era fresh on voters minds, plus Republicans hardly ever win in this state it's amazing that RINOs held the office for 16 years.
NY - Paterson is toast if he's the RAT nominee, but I'm guessing Cuomo runs and takes out Paterson in the primary. I don't see any Republican besides Rudy being able to defeat the Cuomo dynasty.
OH - Ohio has been THE biggest swing state in the nation to determine "how it goes, so goes the nation" lately and I think the same will be true in 2010. I'd say tossup between Rob Portman (R) vs. Lee Fisher (D)
ME - I'd say tossup, way too early to tell. The GOP could have an opening due to party fatigue, but they'd need to run a decent candidate.
NM - I'd have to say lean D, since Richardson won't be on the ballot. However if his Lt. Governor is the nominee the GOP could possibly tie her to his failed governorship. NM just seems to have treaded pretty strongly RAT lately and has become a big time welfare state. From my initial glance, Susana Martinez might be a good choice for the GOP nominate in this heavily Hispanic state. Problem is, I don't know if she's a RINO or not.
OR - Similar problem with neighboring Washington state -- every election it looks like the GOP is going to finally get back the Governor's mansion after decades in the wilderness, but the RAT fraud and GOTV effort thwarts them. I'd say lean D because it seems all the GOP candidates are unknown.
WY - This state SHOULD normally safe R for Governor, and would be R today if it weren't for Eli Bebout managing to drop the ball in 2002. Alas, Freudenthal is now one of the most "popular" Governors in the U.S., and is seen as "above" partisan politics (even though he endorsed the marxist Hussein Obama in the RAT primary) and should easily be re-elected if he's not term limited. If he is out of the picture, the state should default to its GOP roots easily.
HI - I’d have to say tossup, surprising for this normally staunch RAT state, as Lt. Gov Aiona will be a strong candidate for the GOP if he's the nominee. However, Abercrombie is also very strong and popular with rank and file Hawaiian voters. Situation might change if other people are nominated in the primaries.
RI - I'd have to say tossup, with State Rep. Joe Trillo (R), A.G. Patrick Lynch (D), and marxist "Independent" Lincoln Chafee almost certain as the three choices on the ballot. The only chance Trillo has is if the two lefties beat the living cr@p out of each other enough over the moonbat vote that he sneaks in with 1/3rd of the remaining voters pulling the GOP lever.
SC - The state is usually pretty strong Republican, but there's a slight chance the RATs could pull off an upset. Again, it depends on who each party nominates.
AZ - Agree on this one, I would put it as lean R, regardless of the nominee.
CT - Lean RINO if the worthless but somehow popular Jodi Rell runs again, otherwise likely D.
NV - I don't think any RAT candidate has officially announced yet. Tossup.