Posted on 09/11/2009 11:20:36 PM PDT by dangus
DEMOCRAT INCUMBENT
Arkansas (Beebe): Safe D
Colorado (Ritter): Leans R
Illinois (Quinn): Leans R ***
Iowa (Culver): Leans R
Maryland (O'Malley): Likely D
Massachusetts (Patrick): Leans R
New York (Patterson): Tossup ***
Ohio (Strickland): Tossup
DEMOCRAT-HELD OPEN SEAT
Kansas: Likely R
Maine: Leans D*
Michigan: Leans R
New Mexico: Likely D
Oklahoma: Likely R
Oregon: Leans D*
Pennsylvania: Tossup*
Tennessee: Leans R
Wisconsin: Tossup*
Wyoming: leans D**
REPUBLICAN-HELD OPEN SEAT
Alabama: Safe R
California: Tossup
Florida: Likely R
Hawaii: Likely D
Rhode Island: Leans D*
South Carolina: Likely R
South Dakota: Likely R
REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT
Alaska (Parnell): Likely R
Arizona (Brewer): Unknown*
Connecticut (Rell): Safe R
Idaho (Otter): Safe R
Nebraska (Heineman): Safe R
Nevada (Gibbobs): Leans R ***
Texas (Perry): Safe R
Utah (Herbert): Likely R*
I don't claim any inside knowledge or special insight into local situations; these predictions are based on any available polling data, statewide voting trends, and news accounts about potential candidates. I welcome any alternate opinions, or further information about local circumstances. All speculation weighs outcomes of various match-ups and eligibilities according to cumulative likelihoods.
* Insufficient polling data for individual candidates; supposition based on trends of popularity of parties.
** Current governor is very popular, but barred from running under current statute; A challenge to the constitutionality of the law is likely.
*** Governor's party is more likely to retain control if the incumbent is ousted in primary.
If you are counting on votes counting in the next election,then count you ACORN voter registration before it’s too late.
Maryland: O’Malley will likely face the former Republican governor (Ehrlich) that he beat last time. There’s a good chance Ehrlich will win. O’Malley has been almost invisible for that last two years, and only makes the news now when announcing state budget cuts every few weeks.
if hes not given the chance to run,which i don’t believe he will be,then many of the people that came out for zero are likely to stay home.
Hillary vs Rudy would be a fun race. She has no executive experience while Gov. is about as far as people will trust Rudy.
Is Brewer a RINO?
“What are you predicting for 2009’s governors’ races in VA and NJ”?
...I live in Richmond and have been volunteering at McDonnell HQ. He’s been ranging between 9-14 points ahead so far. Dems are trying to get him in a “macaca” moment with his thesis from 20 years ago about his distaste for working Mom’s. Doesn’t seem to be sticking.
“After what Granholm has done to the state I don’t see MI returning a Democrat to Lansing.”
In the 2006 election granholm had 43% approval and won the state with 57% of the vote. There’s massive voter fraud in MI and the crooked RINO state attorney general won’t do a thing about it. In addition, it’s estimated that 600,000 productive citizens have left the state since the Berkeley communist was elected governor. The leeches clearly outnumber productive citizens. Entire networks of shyster lawyers and crooked quacks have risen in MI to assure lazy slugs qualify for workmen’s comps or SS disability.
MI is lost for a generation unless conservatives take over Washington and send federal investigator teams in to arrest the entire rotten political structure.
I also pointed out that there were about 100 Democratic house seats that the GOP could likely gain
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I agree with this statement, however the Republicans will have to grow a set real quick!
I USED to be a purist...but after seeing what happened last November and what is happening NOW, I will vote for a RINO in the General everytime.
Detroit people are STUCK ON STUPID and will elect ANY and EVERY DEMOCRTA they can, and then BLAME their Pathetic lives on Republicans!
Likely my foot. Unless Brownback does something incredibly stupid - and even if he does - he's going to win next year. The Democrats aren't running anyone against him.
Brewer won’t make it through the primary in Arizona. She has attacked republicans worse then a democrat would.
Nope, she won't make it through the primaries. Very unpopular with the base.
We need to tie ACORN around Obama’s neck.
Polling shows both Republican candidates ahead by similar, relatively large margins. New Jersey, however, is a much more dynamic race. So I’d say Virginia is likely to almost safely R; New Jersey is between leaning and likely R.
bump to the top
Unless someone has dirt on Paterson on the Dem side, I don't see him necessarily gracefully stepping aside. Cuomo wants the nomination, but he wants it without getting his hands dirty. He knows if he takes on Paterson head-on, he'll harm his standing with Black voters, and while they may not flock to the Republican candidate, they could angrily sit out the general, and that's not something Cuomo can afford.
"Meanwhile, Giuliani has yet to confirm that he's going to run. He's been playing coy as usual. And even if Giuliani runs, he's going to find it pretty hard to beat Cuomo."
Depends upon how Cuomo gets the nomination, if he does. I think Cuomo's popularity is highly overinflated, and he's never faced a serious opponent.
"As for Hilary, I really doubt if she even wants to be Governor of any state. She still wants the presidency, and is secretly glad 0bama is slashing and burning."
Of course she doesn't want the Governorship, any more than she wanted the Senate seat (no more than Slick Willard in MA), these were all nothing but stepping stones to the Presidency. One thing Giuliani could use against her, if she takes out Paterson, is to hit her repeatedly that she has no intention of staying in Albany, and wants to take on a damaged Zero in '12 (that'll REALLY go over well with Black NY voters).
I wouldn’t bet the farm on that, even if we put up one of the second tier women candidates, which might not be such a bad idea.
So you’ll vote for liberal Democrats running as Republicans. Got it.
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