Posted on 09/07/2009 5:21:11 AM PDT by neverdem
Helmand, Afghanistan - The West is losing this war. This has been obvious for more than three years. Less obvious is that in 2009, we are down to the wire. Gen. Stanley McChrystal and others will soon recommend to President Obama the latest treatment for a dying patient.
Meanwhile, allies and Americans are asking themselves why we are here. Some are saying that Al Qaeda is still here or is waiting in the wings to return to its home. Yet Afghanistan was never Al Qaeda's permanent home to begin with. Al Qaeda was just renting a little space here, just as it was renting space in places like Germany and Florida.
We must face reality: Our reasons for continuing are not the reasons we came for. We are fighting a different war now than the one that began in 2001. Today's war is about social re-engineering. Given the horrible history of Afghanistan, and the fact that we already are here, the cause is worthy and worthwhile.
The decisions facing us are perilous and immense. On the one hand, we desperately need more troops, while on the other increasing troop levels introduces a host of costs and potential traps.
Yet it seems certain the war will be lost if we do not significantly increase troops. While our enemies grow stronger, years will pass before Afghan forces can replace us. Enemies are gaining ground while we lose the goodwill of the people through disillusionment. In the mostly peaceful Ghor Province, for instance, development is scant and there are no Afghan soldiers.
I just spent more than a month with British combat forces in Helmand. Instead of concentrating on training and operating with Afghan forces, the British are involved in a daily struggle for tiny pieces of real estate.
Last December, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates told me in a private discussion while flying back to the U.S. from Afghanistan, Bahrain and Iraq, that his greatest concern is that we will lose the goodwill of the Afghan people. Gates is correct and my confidence in his judgment is high. Gates knows that our stock is still okay here, but clearly it is losing value.
The strongest indicator of progress will come in the form of cooperation from the people. In Iraq, especially in about mid-2007, I witnessed a tidal shift in cooperation from the civilians and largely from that was able to report that the surge was working, long before the statistics would support what might have appeared to be a wild claim.
During 2006 in Afghanistan, I witnessed areas where the population was alienated from Kabul and Western forces. Again, long before the statistics would support what appeared to be wild claims, I published 12 reports saying we were losing here. Analysts cannot feel the pulse through statistics; in this sort of war, statistics lag behind the realities. An observer must be on the ground to sense the pulse.
Pundits who are saying we should pull out of Afghanistan today, to my knowledge, are not here.
Having just spent another month with British forces in Helmand, today I am on my own in the same province. During the last month, our great allies the British lost dozens of soldiers who were killed or wounded. Cooperation from locals is almost nonexistent in many places. Interaction between civilians and British soldiers was nearly zero. The British treat the civilians very well, but being polite and respectful is not enough.
Without significant reinforcements, the British likely will be defeated in Helmand within a couple of years. My respect for British soldiers is immense. I have been in combat with them many times in Iraq and Afghanistan, including during the last couple of weeks and would go into battle with them today. Yet it must be said that the average British soldier has practically no understanding of counterinsurgency.
The enemies here cannot defeat the United States, but they can dissolve the coalition. Some allies are ready to tap out, while others are learning that counterinsurgency is difficult. The Germans, for instance, are losing in their battle space. To avoid watching the coalition melt away, we must show progress before the end of 2010.
Today, the war is still worth fighting, yet the goal to reengineer one of the most backward, violent places on Earth, will require a century before a reasonable person can call Afghanistan "a developing nation." The war will not take that long - but the effort will.
There are no short-term solutions to fix this place. We are planting acorns. Oak trees grow slowly.
Yon, a former Green Beret, blogs at michaelyon-online.com.
I was under the impression that the Paki-Afghan border straddles traditional tribal lands in places. It seems to me that would be a source of discontent you simply can’t paste over (amongst many other things).
You can call me a conspiracy theorist, but I have a bad feeling about this administration and our military. What I mean is, I think our Military’s real threat is the administration in the “white house”. Pray for our Military and their safety. Thank you for serving...we are behind you.
I will leave it at that, but from what I am seeing and hearing something does not seem right and I fear for our military, not from terrorists but from our government.
>>> “the goal to reengineer one of the most backward, violent places on Earth, will require a century” <<<<<
As much as I respect Michael Yon, I cannot possibly agree that this is an acceptable goal.
The Germans, for instance, are losing in their battle space............................. Their hands are tied like everyone else, the ROE is gauged by PC. I could just imagine what might be going through their minds. “Ja, Ve know how to take care of dis insurgent problem, but dey vill not let us do it.”
BFLR.
I greatly respect Michael's work, but this is not a responsibility of the US. Reengineering should never be a mission of the US military.
There is no political will on the part of the Obama Administration to do what is necessary in Afghanistan. At the first report of civilian casualties, Obama will be all wee-weed up.
“Cooperation from locals is almost nonexistent in many places.”
There it is.
We can never change it.
An oversimplified Vn analogy might be in order, here.....we have largely defeated the NVA, but the country is full of VC, their sympathizers, and VC-to-be. We can further analogize the integral and likely expansive Paki matter to Laos/Cambodia.
So if we aren't there to build a western democratic nation, and we aren't there to "kill them all and let God sort them out" what are we there to do? The Taliban is not an invading force that the people do not want in their home: They, the people, ARE the Taliban.
We should aggressively clean out areas we want to see cleaned out. Ruthlessly hunt and kill those we don't want to leave over there. Stake out a place in that God-forsaken -Countryside as our very own base (no permission needed to use it), declare victory and LEAVE. We can use our base to monitor the situation, our planes and missiles to keep the place relatively clean of terrorist training camps, and let them kill each other at will. That's not our problem.
We could accomplish that goal in six months. Kill the ones we want to kill, establish a base, we win, goodbye.
They are having a rough time. I urge everyone to send at least one care package to someone in Afghanistan. For those of you that are on a tight budget..you can watch for Walgreens deals where you can get things for free.
For example, last week you could get a Colgate
toothbrush, rembrandt toothpaste, and a carefree product for free.
if you could find the walgreens coupon you could get thermaflu for free.
The carefree deal is all month long.
You can’t roll the register reward on the same manufacturer but you can use it on a different item.
ship in a flat rate box to an APO address.
They will appreciate it.
Next week they will have a True Nut product for 3.00 and you get a 3.00 register reward.
It takes a little ingenuity and effort but you can get stuff for little cost to send.
Wrap the box up with lots of tape. There is a theft problem in the mail system.
Just one package. And if it takes you several months to get all your free items..then send it for Christmas.
CVS also has similar deals.
They need morale boosters!!
There is an easy solution.
Pick a tribe. Promise them all the loot and slaves they can carry off. Arm ‘em up. Provide air and artillery support. Send ‘em in to slaughter the other tribes. End of problem.
Pick a tribe. Promise them all the loot and slaves they can carry off. Arm ‘em up. Provide air and artillery support. Send ‘em in to slaughter the other tribes........................ Sounds like the German solution in the Balkans?
If it works...
Are the Chinese supplying arms to the enemy? Where are they getting funds? Saudi Arabia?
Mark Steyn: The Omnipresent Leader - They want us to “pledge to be a servant to our president”?
The Point of the Dagger (Cultural Marxism is Political Correctness and vice versa, IMHO.)
Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.
>>> We can further analogize the integral and likely expansive Paki matter to Laos/Cambodia. <<<<
The safe haven and moral support offered by Pakistan since 2001 makes any sustained effort futile, just as with Cambodia/Laos.
http://www.viet-myths.net/buitin.htm
How North Vietnam Won The War
Bui Tin Interviewed by Stephen Young
Q: How could the Americans have won the war?
A: Cut the Ho Chi Minh trail inside Laos. If Johnson had granted [Gen. William] Westmoreland’s requests to enter Laos and block the Ho Chi Minh trail, Hanoi could not have won the war.
I think you're forgetting some history here. After the Soviets left, there was a huge power vacuum that was filled by the Taliban, who before that was just another mujaheddin group. They fought a big civil war and the Taliban came out on top. However, they became so widely hated that after 9/11 we, the USA, had an easy time running them out, and we had tremendous popular support.
But, proving once again that there's nothing we can't screw up, they're back again fighting in the hinterlands (most of the country), and from Pakistan. They are still widely hated and have little popular support, but our people are mostly holed up in their bases and letting the Taliban have free run of the country, terrorizing the people and consolidating territory. Bush was finished and could do nothing more, and to Obama, this is a distraction from his holy mission of turning our country into a worker's paradise. He would withdraw in a heartbeat if it was politically feasible, and our people over there know it. That doesn't do much for morale.
If proper attention where given to this effort and we didn't just sit there idling then this war could be won. The Taliban, although tenacious, are in no way a match for our forces, and it should be easy to once again win the "hearts and minds" front as well.
Don't believe the doom and gloom. We'll only lose because we tire of the effort and leave before the mission is accomplished. The real problem is that the political will and popular support for this effort are eroding, mostly because of Obama's lack of leadership on this matter.
>>> We could accomplish that goal in six months. Kill the ones we want to kill, establish a base, we win, goodbye. <<<<
Most here would agree with that sentiment, unfortunately the ones we want to kill can (and do) hop the border to find safe haven in Pakistan.
Personally I identified Pakistan as the enemy way back in 2001/2002.
But notice the dichotomy he introduced between winning the war (doable) and really civilizing Afghanistan (damn near impossible, and who cares?).
I have a personal theory that high-altitude countries' inhabitants live in a constant state of hypoxia and are neither rational nor salvageable. That they ought to be left to lacerate and murder one another to their hearts' content, because they will always do this until they leave their mountain fastnesses and start breathing real air.
Just a theory.
I don't believe so. With their Uighur problem, it's not in their interest.
Where are they getting funds?
They get some from the war on some drugs. The similarities to organized crime are striking.
Saudi Arabia?
I wouldn't doubt it.
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