Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion [Pacific/Baja]

NWS/NHC ^ | 09/01/2009 | NWS

[xcamel]

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

THE SMALL EYE OF JIMENA BECAME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 0500 UTC...HOWEVER SINCE THAT TIME IT HAS WARMED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND A RATHER SYMMETRIC CDO.

THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS REMAIN 6.5 FROM TAFB AND 6.0 FROM SAB...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES ALSO CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND T6.5. BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND UNCHANGED SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 135 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JIMENA AROUND 1500 UTC THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THEREAFTER...
LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT JIMENA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN A FEW DAYS.

[xcamel]

Getting nasty

[dirtboy]

Fortunately it's aiming for some pretty remote and sparsely inhabited real estate.

IMO the remnants will be a greater hazard for loss of life due to serious flash flooding if they make it up to Arizona.

[xcamel]

The Sierra La Laguna mountains tend to tear them apart quite a bit, but my property manager tells me they have been getting some big thunderstorms in Lapaz (My place is across the bay near El Centenario). They are evacuating the neighborhoods bordering the dry washes around Lapaz just in case.

I just hope it doesn't start wrecking the $22 million in road improvements that have been done on the 1 and the 19 to Todos Santos the last couple of years.

[dirtboy]

The main problem with the angle of approach for this system is that the ‘dirty’ (stronger) side of the storm is going to be felt along a long strech of Baja. And if there is a slight jog to the right, the eye will be on the coast with almost no time for additional reaction (kinda like Erin a few years back when it suddenly veered right and slammed into the Florida Panhandle further east than expected).

[Nahanni]

Tucson isn’t exactly sparsely populated, and seeing as it is slowing down a bit as it goes up the Baja it will turn into a major rain event for southern Arizona.

Also, depending on how it tracks southern California would be on the dry side but with some hefty winds which won’t exactly help the fire situation there.

[Dacula]

What is the likelihood of this storm helping LA with their fires?

[xcamel]

That's ok, as there is little or nothing between Lapaz and Constitution/Insergentes - it's a complete wasteland except for a couple fishing villages.

[dirtboy]

Tucson isn’t exactly sparsely populated, and seeing as it is slowing down a bit as it goes up the Baja it will turn into a major rain event for southern Arizona.

That was my basic point - the worst of the winds will probably only affect sparsely populated areas on Baja - but if the remnants make it to Arizona, there could be some loss of life from flash flooding. Doesn't take a whole lot of rain in the desert to trigger such.

[xcamel]

unknown at this point... more likely to go into arizona/ new mexico

[xcamel]

hurri-ping

[deport]

The storm is going to become less and less destructive as it moves to the north. True some areas will be hit hard as it makes this move. It would be nice if it could continue on to the north as a rain maker for CA.

[crusty old prospector]

Not gonna happen. You know the song, “It never rains in California.”

[halo66]

Unfortunately, a developing trough off of California will push the system to the east before it can reach California. Arizona may be in for some beneficial rains.

[IYAS9YAS]

With any luck, it'll help our beleaguered firefighters on So Cal. Hopefully, it'll lay down water, not just blow and create thunderstorms.

[TheBattman]

Or maybe some much needed rain for the LA area when the storm moves through?

[xcamel]

That would be my bet..

[xcamel]

New(ish) weather site - great info/graphics

http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific