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Hurricane JIMENA Forecast Discussion [Pacific/Baja]
NWS/NHC ^ | 09/01/2009 | NWS

Posted on 09/01/2009 5:51:16 AM PDT by xcamel

HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132009 200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009

THE SMALL EYE OF JIMENA BECAME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 0500 UTC...HOWEVER SINCE THAT TIME IT HAS WARMED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND A RATHER SYMMETRIC CDO.

THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS REMAIN 6.5 FROM TAFB AND 6.0 FROM SAB...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES ALSO CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND T6.5. BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND UNCHANGED SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 135 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JIMENA AROUND 1500 UTC THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THEREAFTER...
LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT JIMENA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN A FEW DAYS.



TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: baja; cabo; hurricane; pacific
Getting nasty
1 posted on 09/01/2009 5:51:17 AM PDT by xcamel
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To: xcamel
Fortunately it's aiming for some pretty remote and sparsely inhabited real estate.

IMO the remnants will be a greater hazard for loss of life due to serious flash flooding if they make it up to Arizona.

2 posted on 09/01/2009 5:54:07 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy
The Sierra La Laguna mountains tend to tear them apart quite a bit, but my property manager tells me they have been getting some big thunderstorms in Lapaz (My place is across the bay near El Centenario). They are evacuating the neighborhoods bordering the dry washes around Lapaz just in case.

I just hope it doesn't start wrecking the $22 million in road improvements that have been done on the 1 and the 19 to Todos Santos the last couple of years.

3 posted on 09/01/2009 6:12:32 AM PDT by xcamel (The urge to save humanity is always a false front for the urge to rule it. - H. L. Mencken)
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To: xcamel

The main problem with the angle of approach for this system is that the ‘dirty’ (stronger) side of the storm is going to be felt along a long strech of Baja. And if there is a slight jog to the right, the eye will be on the coast with almost no time for additional reaction (kinda like Erin a few years back when it suddenly veered right and slammed into the Florida Panhandle further east than expected).


4 posted on 09/01/2009 6:15:06 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: dirtboy

Tucson isn’t exactly sparsely populated, and seeing as it is slowing down a bit as it goes up the Baja it will turn into a major rain event for southern Arizona.

Also, depending on how it tracks southern California would be on the dry side but with some hefty winds which won’t exactly help the fire situation there.


5 posted on 09/01/2009 6:16:26 AM PDT by Nahanni
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To: xcamel

What is the likelihood of this storm helping LA with their fires?


6 posted on 09/01/2009 6:16:28 AM PDT by Dacula (Evil succeeds when good men do nothing. Lets do something.)
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To: dirtboy
That's ok, as there is little or nothing between Lapaz and Constitution/Insergentes - it's a complete wasteland except for a couple fishing villages.
7 posted on 09/01/2009 6:17:26 AM PDT by xcamel (The urge to save humanity is always a false front for the urge to rule it. - H. L. Mencken)
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To: Nahanni
Tucson isn’t exactly sparsely populated, and seeing as it is slowing down a bit as it goes up the Baja it will turn into a major rain event for southern Arizona.

That was my basic point - the worst of the winds will probably only affect sparsely populated areas on Baja - but if the remnants make it to Arizona, there could be some loss of life from flash flooding. Doesn't take a whole lot of rain in the desert to trigger such.

8 posted on 09/01/2009 6:17:55 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: Dacula

unknown at this point... more likely to go into arizona/ new mexico


9 posted on 09/01/2009 6:18:12 AM PDT by xcamel (The urge to save humanity is always a false front for the urge to rule it. - H. L. Mencken)
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To: NautiNurse

hurri-ping


10 posted on 09/01/2009 6:19:09 AM PDT by xcamel (The urge to save humanity is always a false front for the urge to rule it. - H. L. Mencken)
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To: xcamel
The storm is going to become less and less destructive as it moves to the north. True some areas will be hit hard as it makes this move. It would be nice if it could continue on to the north as a rain maker for CA.


11 posted on 09/01/2009 6:19:35 AM PDT by deport
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To: deport

Not gonna happen. You know the song, “It never rains in California.”


12 posted on 09/01/2009 6:21:26 AM PDT by crusty old prospector
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To: deport

Unfortunately, a developing trough off of California will push the system to the east before it can reach California. Arizona may be in for some beneficial rains.


13 posted on 09/01/2009 6:23:24 AM PDT by halo66
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To: xcamel
With any luck, it'll help our beleaguered firefighters on So Cal. Hopefully, it'll lay down water, not just blow and create thunderstorms.
14 posted on 09/01/2009 6:25:49 AM PDT by IYAS9YAS (The townhalls were going great until the oPods showed up.)
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To: xcamel

Or maybe some much needed rain for the LA area when the storm moves through?


15 posted on 09/01/2009 6:49:17 AM PDT by TheBattman (Pray for our country...)
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To: halo66

That would be my bet..


16 posted on 09/01/2009 6:51:34 AM PDT by xcamel (The urge to save humanity is always a false front for the urge to rule it. - H. L. Mencken)
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To: All

New(ish) weather site - great info/graphics

http://www.stormpulse.com/pacific


17 posted on 09/01/2009 10:23:01 AM PDT by xcamel (The urge to save humanity is always a false front for the urge to rule it. - H. L. Mencken)
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