"My message is all about "reason." We haf ways to deal with people who do not listen to reason."
Posted on 08/28/2009 4:30:56 AM PDT by Kaslin
The late-night hotel desk clerk in Salem, Va., -- after my long drive from Washington down the Shenandoah Valley -- wanted to talk political philosophy. He intended to support Republican Bob McDonnell for governor in November on Madisonian grounds. "I vote both parties, but I don't want anyone having all the control." Obama, in his view, needed to be checked and balanced.
This is the durable tendency of Virginia politics. Since 1977, the political party that has won the presidency has, in every case, lost the Virginia governorship in the next election. This pattern of cussedness is holding, at least for the moment. McDonnell, Virginia's former attorney general, is currently well ahead of his Democratic opponent, Creigh Deeds -- in one poll leading by 15 percent among likely voters.
McDonnell, riding in a well-worn, 30-foot blue RV from dairy farm to winery to college campus, recounts to me how the political environment has changed from a year ago. "The business community," he says, "was the first to recoil" from policies such as card check and cap-and-trade. "But health care now dwarfs previous concerns -- handing over the best medical system in the world to the federal government. It affects everyone." Conservatives, he contends, are more activated than at any time since 1993. A young McDonnell campaign worker told me: "We have the enthusiasm Obama's people had last time."
(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...
The only Deeds signs I’ve seen in NOVA are pretty weathered and left over from the June primary.
As Observers of VA Politics, any idea how effective the Obotorgs like Acorn/Unions/Illegals may have on the 2010 elections?
Problem with your vote totals, kabar.
This is 2009, not 2008 and Obama isn’t on the ballot to turn out most of these people.
I’ve not seen one single Deeds bumpersticker. Obama supporters are still sporting their Obama bumperstickers. They’re too fat, dumb and happy to even know there is another election this year.
Unless something dramatic changes, McDonnell is going to run away with it.
Pres Obama is plunging in the polls, and his health-care plans face an iffy future on Capitol Hill. His supporters blame right-wing muscle. “I think it is very hard because [Democrats] don’t have the message machine the Republicans do,” says Democratic message guru George Lakoff. Even at the GOP’s 2004 peak, rumors of its omnipotence were greatly exaggerated. Now they are just plain loopy. Democrats hold daunting advantages that American parties have seldom enjoyed.
Start with Congress. A few years back, House Democrats complained that the Republican majority was shutting them out of the legislative process. Now Speaker Pelosi and company are pulling tricks that Tom DeLay never dreamed of.
A Brookings study concludes: “The number and percentage of restrictive rules used by Democratic leaders to control debate and amending activity on the House floor exceeded the degree of control and departure from regular order exercised by their Republican predecessors.”
The ruling party is even unfairly censoring Republicans’ official mailings to constituents.
Senate Democrats have 60 votes, enough to close debate if they all hang together. Such strength is extraordinary. Democrats last crossed that line in the 95th Congress (1977–1979), and Republicans have not done so in more than a hundred years.
Democrats claim that their majority is less decisive than it seems because they are more fractious than Republicans. But they aren’t. In roll call votes during 2008, Senate Democrats scored higher in party unity (87 percent) than Republicans (83 percent).
Democrats do not exactly face a hostile media environment, either. The evening news broadcasts of the Obama-friendly Big Three networks have dropped in the ratings, but they still draw far more viewers than Fox News. That’s why the Gibson and Couric interviews could do so much damage to Sarah Palin.
What of all-powerful talk radio? Rush Limbaugh reaches up to 25 million Americans, many more than other syndicated hosts. That’s a big number, but it means that at least 80 percent of voters are not listeners. More significant, polls show that most Americans have a low opinion of El Rushbo. So the “Limbaugh Did It” theory works only if he can mesmerize millions who dislike him and/or don’t even listen to him. Liberals and Democrats also dominate the hot medium of our time, the Internet.
During the 2008 campaign, the Obama campaign mastered social networking and other online technologies. By far the most popular political blog is The Huffington Post. Along with Talking Points Memo and others, HuffPo conducts a great deal of investigative journalism that advances liberal causes. As the Politico reported last year, the Right lags badly in this regard.
What about money? According to stereotype, the well-heeled GOP can bury the Democrats in campaign cash. That image is obsolete: Any Republican financial advantage is long gone. In 2008, Barack Obama smashed all fundraising records and got most of his money from large donors. He raised twice as much as McCain from physicians and other health professionals, and three times as much from the health-service and drug industries.
And listening to his attacks on the insurance industry, you would never guess that it supplied him with almost as much money ($2.3 million) as it did McCain ($2.4 million). No wonder Obama could co-opt business opposition to the health plan and strike a deal with Big Pharma: His corporate ties were a pre-existing condition. The Democrats continue to hold the money edge. So far in the 2010 election cycle, Democratic national committees have raised $12 million more than their Republican counterparts.
And as in the past, liberals have the upper hand at foundations and universities. Research from these institutions has been especially important during the health-care debate. A Yale professor, for instance, devised the “public option.”
With such a commanding position, President Obama and his party should be having an easy time. Indeed, they may still ram a bill through Congress. But the battle has been tougher than they expected.
There are a couple of possible explanations. First, despite his talents as a candidate, President Obama is showing weakness and inexperience as a chief executive. Second, the health plan is so bad that even a mighty political operation has trouble pushing it across the finish line. Perhaps both explanations are true.
John J. Pitney Jr. is the Roy P. Crocker professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College. With James W. Ceaser and Andrew E. Busch, he is co-author of Epic Journey: The 2008 Elections and American Politics.
I've thought about going by the 'Rat headquarters to see what the Deeds stuff even looks like. It's almost as if he wasn't running.
And as far as all of the the "he's going to get national money" thoughts, Terry McAuliffe was going to get all of that, Deeds isn't.
My sense, and I may be wrong on this is that Obama benefitted from a lot of black voters who would ordinarily not vote.
No doubt, but there also more black voters than there were in 2000 or 2004. And there are more immigrants voting. In Fairfax County, 27.7% of the population is foreign born. I was a poll watcher on both election day and during early voting. You would be amazed how many immigrants were voting, mainly Asian and Hispanic.
Across the country, A LOT more people voted than normal (131 million in 2008 vs. 122 million in 2004), it is unlikely that this will happen again.
First the population of the US will increase by 135 million in the next 40 years, 75% due to immigration. By 2023, half of the children 18 and under will be minorities and by 2042 half of the country will be minorities. Bureau of the Census: An Older and More Diverse Nation by Midcentury
Demography is destiny. The changing demographics of the US fueled by immigration, legal and illegal, has political consequences. 87% of the 1.2 million LEGAL immigrants who enter annually are minorities. And almost all of the illegal aliens are minorities. And they are having 400,000 anchor babies a year.
Second, the Obama political organization is the most sophisticated and scary we have seen in our history. Using technology they can mobilize 13 million volunteers at a moment't notice. Go to Organizing for America to see what we are up against. Type in your zip code and see what events are being held or planned in your area.
Yes Kilgore and Allen ran lousy campaigns. But their defeat was not just do to that. And Obama has raised campaigning to a new level. Being a community organizer may not prepare you to be President, but it sure as hell can help you win elections. Frightening.
"My message is all about "reason." We haf ways to deal with people who do not listen to reason."
See my post #31. I understand that 2009 could well be different. Our base should be more energized and Obama’s declining popularity should help us in an off year. As I said, if we can’t win this year, we never will.
I think Soros et al may have turned him down b/c even they know he's a Lost Cause. We'll see what happens after Labor Day.
If everything you were saying about Virginia was true, Deeds would be winning in the polls. McDonnell is up by DOUBLE DIGITS in almost every poll against a man he beat by ONE-HUNDREDTH OF A PERCENT four years ago.
Go ANYWHERE in Virginia outside of NoVA, the cities (just the cities, not the metropolitan areas) of Norfolk, Richmond, Portsmouth, Roanoke or Charlottesville and it will soon become obvious that Acorn and community organizing WILL NOT work in Virginia.
There was a movement about 25 years ago to make NoVA its own state, I really wish it had happened, it would have saved the rest of us a lot of money, embarrassment and frustration.
The race will tighten after Labor Day when the real race begins. I hope our base remains energized and turns out at the polls. Right now, Obama appears to be a drag on the ticket. But you can bet Obama will come across the Potomac and get involved. He will try to get out the black vote, which approves his performance by 97%. We must win this one to send a signal nationwide.
That WILL NOT work outside of NoVA.
And just wait until Deeds talks about what a big abortion supporter he is, that will cause him to start losing the black vote.
I don't know how much time you've really spend outside of NoVA, but it's a very different place than you portray it. Yes the numbers from last November were startling, but that was a one time event. Terry McAuliffe got a real good lesson in just what Virginia thought of Beltway liberals and that was BEFORE Zero's numbers started to plummet.
Don't pay attention to the polls at this point. Allen was way up on Webb. The real money does not start flowing until after Labor Day nor does the real campaigning. And there may be some dirty tricks out there that might result in a macaca moment.
There was a movement about 25 years ago to make NoVA its own state, I really wish it had happened, it would have saved the rest of us a lot of money, embarrassment and frustration
Northern Virginia is growing faster than the rest of the state. The larger the federal government grows, the more it grows. NoVA will dominate VA politics even more in the future.
Holder is leaning on the CIA---to forestall the releasing of all the dirt the CIA's got on these people.
November 23, 2008
Eric Holder Pushed the Marc Rich Special Treatment for Over a Year
SOURCE James Bamford, Author of "The Shadow Factory" (the CIA)
Fran Townsend has been peddling an alternate reality version of how Eric Holder came to OK the Marc Rich pardon. Holder "got a last-minute phone call" from the Clinton White House to vet Rich, Townsend told CNN, where she is a contributor. "He was put in a horrible position," Townsend said, adding that Holder was being criticized unfairly in the Rich matter. The charitable view is that Ms. Townsend's imagination has won some battle with her memory.
The less charitable view is that her years in the Bush White House have caused her to adopt one of their more famous mottos, "Reality? We don't need no stinkin' reality, we make our own reality!"
While I never bought that story and had previously heard, via the Foley Square grapevine, that Holder had deliberately hidden the pardon application from USAO SDNY so they would not have an opportunity to protest, I did not know just how far Holder's advocacy on behalf of Marc Rich, when he was supposed to be working on behalf of the American people, actually went.
In an OpEd piece in the Saturday NYTimes George Lardner, Jr. submits what appears to be an extraordinarily well researched history of the Holder involvement in trying to get extra special treatment for Marc Rich. In 1999, Mr. Rich hired Jack Quinn, who had been Mr. Clinton’s White House counsel from 1995 to 1996, to help him advance his cause.
The Rich team was still hoping to strike a deal with federal prosecutors in New York, who were in charge of the case. An e-mail message to Mr. Rich from one of his New York lawyers said that Mr. Quinn felt “he could convince Eric that it made sense to listen to the professors and that he could convince Eric to encourage Mary Jo to do the same.”
The “professors” were two tax experts paid more than $96,000 for a study based solely on statements provided them by the Rich legal team; “Mary Jo” was Mary Jo White, the United States attorney in New York.
Holder reportedly told Quinn that SDNY's position was ridiculous--an interesting comment coming from within the Justice Department, to say the least. Mr. Holder told Mr. Quinn to write a letter to Ms. White with a copy to him, and promised to call her when it arrived. Mr. Holder then called Ms. White personally and, after that conversation, told Mr. Quinn she “didn’t sound like her guard was up.” But New York stood firm.
New York's position was consistent with the written guidelines on pardons which do not allow pardons for people while they remain fugitives.
On Nov. 18, 2000, Mr. Quinn told Mr. Holder that Mr. Rich was going to go for a pardon, a step his team had been contemplating for months. After the conversation, Mr. Quinn told colleagues that Mr. Holder had advised him to “go straight to” the White House and that the “timing is good.”
What's this you say? Go directly to the White House? Bypass the DOJ Office of Pardon Attorney?
What an extraordinary thing for a high ranking DOJ official to say! “The greatest danger lies with the lawyers,” Mr. Quinn wrote in an e-mail message to an aide to Mr. Rich, referring to the prosecutors in New York. “I have worked them hard and I am hopeful that E. Holder will be helpful to us.”
Well it turns out that the prosecutors in NY never got a chance to be a danger, because NO ONE TOLD THEM ABOUT THE PARDON APPLICATION. You see, if the pardon application had gone to the Office of Pardon Attorney like a normal pardon, the Pardon Attorney would have, as per written procedure, solicited the opinion of the USAO which originated the case.
Of course, Holder arranged for Marc Rich to bypass the Pardon Attorney and never told the US Attorney for SDNY that there was a pardon application in the air.
Under the rules governing pardon petitions — rules that were approved by Mr. Holder’s office — the views of United States attorneys “are given considerable weight” because of the “valuable insights” they have. And yet Mr. Holder did not consult Ms. White and her colleagues about the Rich pardon petition; they did not know of it until it had been granted. -snip-
The people in the United States attorney’s office in New York weren’t the only ones surprised by Mr. Holder’s decision. Deborah Smolover, his top deputy for pardon cases, did not find out about the pardon for Mr. Rich until the White House called to inform her of it after midnight on Jan. 20. (Mr. Green won a pardon, too.)
After the pardon was signed, Mr. Quinn has testified, Mr. Holder called him to commend him on “a very good job.” Mr. Holder also asked Mr. Quinn to consider hiring two former aides, one of whom had already contacted Mr. Quinn on Jan. 2 “at Holder’s suggestion.” Go read the NYTimes piece. It's quite the smackdown of Ms. Townsend's fairy tale version.
Geez, that’s scary.
The race to fill Thurman Adams' Senate seat was much more complicated than that. His daughter's loss to the Republican House member was more of a backlash against the Dem powers that be for playing dirty pool than anything to do with a backlash against Obama. The Bridgeville area is pretty conservative, as was Thurman.
This is what happens when the radical left is shown to be a very very very very very small minority and the very very very very large CONSERVATIVE majority pay attention.
Even jack*ss Senator Webb (D) is begging for a retreat.
The Compost hadn't figured out how to spin Macaca yet.
The real money does not start flowing until after Labor Day nor does the real campaigning. And there may be some dirty tricks out there that might result in a macaca moment.
The left had been trying to portray Allen as a closet racist for years, there has NEVER been any hint of this with McDonnell.
Northern Virginia is growing faster than the rest of the state. The larger the federal government grows, the more it grows. NoVA will dominate VA politics even more in the future.
Not if the GOP keeps control of the state.
What are you smoking? Blacks have more abortions than anyone else. Blacks also vote Dem by 90% or more. And if Obama gets involved and says how important it is for the Dems to retain control over the governorship, we will see if they get the message. The big unknown is turnout not how they will vote. Orgainzing for America will play a role.
I don't know how much time you've really spend outside of NoVA, but it's a very different place than you portray it. Yes the numbers from last November were startling, but that was a one time event. Terry McAuliffe got a real good lesson in just what Virginia thought of Beltway liberals and that was BEFORE Zero's numbers started to plummet.
I go to Richmond quite a lot to lobby at the statehouse. Deeds isn't considered a Beltway liberal.
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