Kennedy, 59 Seats and the Next Five Months

One of the stark political realities of Ted Kennedy's death is that Senate Democrats' long coveted 60-seat, filibuster-proof majority is on hold for the foreseeable future as Massachusetts voters prepare for a special election to replace the legendary Democratic senator. In truth, Kennedy's infirmity and the long-term absence of Sen. Robert Byrd, in addition to the renegade nature of some of the more moderate elements within the party, have long made the idea of a filibuster-proof majority more theory than reality.

But Kennedy's death cements Democrats' inability to push through legislation by sheer force of numbers alone unless, as Kennedy himself suggested, Massachusetts legislators change state law to allow Gov. Deval Patrick to appoint a temporary successor for the five-month period before a special election can be held.

One source familiar with negotiations in the state legislature suggests that some momentum appears to be building behind changing the law to allow Patrick to appoint a seat warmer. If true, that would represent a major shift from last week when the idea of changing the state law at Kennedy's request seemed to be headed nowhere.

Watch to see if Democratic leaders in Washington -- led by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) -- agitate for the law change, knowing that without it they will have to recruit at least one Republican in order to pass any bill. It remains to be seen how much influence Reid or even the White House could have over the Massachusetts state legislature given that that chamber's popularity numbers have dipped in recent months...

I heard on Howie Carr, note no 2nd source. Recent pole, only 4% of MA voters are for the change. If they follow the rules, the Primary will be around Christmas, and the election during the snow turd season (on your quarter panels) of your car, i.e. Jan.

This means low turn out, and the chances of the Broken Glass Republicans pulling off a victory.

My guess in the bowels of the MA DNC, they know people are pissed of TARP, Obamacare etc. and even their people are pissed.

Add to this Ried, Dodd, Specter and Corzine and others I am not aware of and the Democratic Senate is in trouble.

Not to mention, these "things" come in threes with 35 Democratic Senators over 70.

One source familiar with negotiations in the state legislature suggests that some momentum appears to be building behind changing the law to allow Patrick to appoint a seat warmer.

Massachusetts general laws says that Patrick must declare the special election IMMEDIATELY. There would be no time for the legislature to change the law.

I just found the relevant election law on the Massachusetts Law website.

PART I. ADMINISTRATION OF THE GOVERNMENT

TITLE VIII. ELECTIONS

CHAPTER 54. ELECTIONS

PROCEEDINGS UPON FAILURE TO ELECT, AND VACANCIES IN STATE OFFICES

Chapter 54: Section 140. Senators and representatives in congress; vacancies

Section 140. (a) Upon failure to choose a senator or representative in congress or upon creation of a vacancy in that office, the governor shall immediately cause precepts to be issued to the aldermen in every city and the selectmen in every town in the district, directing them to call an election on the day appointed in the precepts for the election of such senator or representative. The day so appointed shall not be more than 160 nor less than 145 days after the date that a vacancy is created or a failure to choose occurs. Filing a letter of resignation creates a vacancy under this section, even if the resignation is not effective until some later time, but the date of the election to fill a vacancy under this section shall be after the resignation is effective.
(b) If a vacancy under this section is created after February 1 of an even-numbered year, the governor shall not issue the precepts required by subsection (a), except as subsection (c) provides for a vacancy for senator.
(c) If a vacancy is created for senator in congress after April 10 of an even-numbered year, the governor shall issue precepts under this section, unless section 152 requires that office to appear on the biennial state election ballot in that year. If this section prevents issuance of precepts for senator, the office shall appear on the biennial state election ballot in that year. If a vacancy for senator is created after April 10 of an even-numbered year, but on or before the seventieth day preceding the regular state primary, the precepts shall appoint the day of the regular state primary and the biennial state election for holding the special primary and special election required by this section.
(d) If at the time a senator or representative in congress is elected at the biennial state election, there exists a vacancy in that office, the senator or representative shall also be deemed to have been elected to serve out that vacancy.
(e) A senator elected to fill a vacancy under this section shall serve for the remainder of the unexpired term.

Note the part in section (a) that says "the governor shall immediately cause precepts to be issued to the aldermen in every city and the selectmen in every town in the district, directing them to call an election..."

This says that the governor IMMEDIATELY announces the date of the special election.

The seat is vacant. When is Patrick going to announce the date of the special election? Why is he talking about changing a law that is already in progress? He is required to name the date NOW!

-PJ

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