Posted on 08/25/2009 4:58:53 PM PDT by delacoert
Could H1N1 swine flu kill 90,000 Americans this winter and hospitalize 1.8 million? Yes -- but not likely, CDC officials say.
The numbers come from a report to the president from his science/technology advisory panel. The report suggests that in a "plausible scenario," swine flu would infect 40% of the U.S. population and overwhelm hospitals with 300,000 patients needing intensive care.
"PCAST [President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology] emphasizes that this is a planning scenario, not a prediction," states the report, dated Aug. 7 but released only yesterday.
How likely a scenario is it? Not very, says Anne Schuchat, MD, director of the CDC's Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. Schuchat addressed the issue during a two-day meeting held this week for top officials to discuss the flu pandemic with journalists.
"We don't think that is necessarily the most likely scenario, but one we must plan for and be ready for," Schuchat said, noting that it is the CDC's policy to plan for the worst possible case.
Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius called the report from the Presidential panel "quite helpful" in justifying the extensive preparations being made for the fall flu season and in pointing out areas where greater efforts are needed.
"We will not know until the middle of flu season how serious this is," Sebelius said at the meeting with journalists. "We think the novel H1N1 virus will infect a lot of people. Even if we have mostly mild cases of novel H1N1, we will have people hospitalized and we will have more deaths."
Sebelius noted that while H1N1 swine flu vaccinations will start around Oct. 15, it's expected that people will need two doses given three weeks apart. That means a person who gets the vaccine won't be protected for five to eight weeks after getting the first dose.
Schuchat estimated that most people who get the vaccine won't be protected until Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, she said, most experts predict an upsurge of flu cases will begin much earlier.
What this means, Schuchat and a parade of CDC officials stressed, is that it's going to take more than a vaccine to fight the flu this fall. Public health will depend at least as much on personal actions as on government efforts.
"Hands and home" are the key tools, as Sebelius says. The message is as important as it is simple:
HIV is a much bigger problem that isn’t even speculative.
So 37,000 + 90,000 = 127,000”
No. Your presumption is that anyone that contracts every-day flu will not contract swine flu and vice-versa. There is absolutely no basis for that presumption. It is much more likely that of the possible (but unlikely) 90,000 swine flu victims will include all of the potential seasonal flu victims for the year.
Here's my prediction: There will be a maximum of 40,000 flu victims in 2009 of all types of flu. I'll gladly wager 10 to 1, to any amount, that my prediction will hold. Care to make a bet.
Hank
Great post, NavyCanDo!
negabama had to come up with some horsehocky to get nobama votin folks to quit listening to Townhall stuff.
They’re hoping more old folks die. It will solve the social security problem.
I agree.
The least sinister thing I can figure is that members left leaning public take pleasure in being able to boast about participation in secular good works, i.e., glorying in the sacred duties of humanism. Not being able to find any meaningful service, idiots are jumping on the flu scare preparation bandwagon.
I can think of some sinister explanations too, but they sound even weirder than the above.
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