[buccaneer81]

These surveillance data allows for first estimation of direct lethality due to H1N1pdm to be 1 per 10,000 infections, about 100 times more than regular seasonal influenza.

That would mean roughly 3-4 million deaths in the United States.

[Brugmansian]

I believe the French study is only looking at those who develop ARDS. That is only a fraction of those who will get the disease. Among that group, the fatality rate is 100 times normal.

The OP estimates 200,000 deaths

[OldDeckHand]

"That would mean roughly 3-4 million deaths in the United States. "

Yeah, somebody's math isn't quite right - probably the doctor's given they went to medical school and aren't accountants.

1 in 10,000 dead would be significanly less lethal than the average seasonal flu, which kills anywhere from 35K to 50K each year, in the US alone. Of course, the difference is virtually all the deaths from seasonal flu come from much older and ailing people that have already compromised immune systems.

If this new strains starts to kill people who are actively engaged in the workforce, and it's distributed across the country, that's where some complexions will come from.