[Brugmansian]

I believe the French study is only looking at those who develop ARDS. That is only a fraction of those who will get the disease. Among that group, the fatality rate is 100 times normal.

The OP estimates 200,000 deaths

[OldDeckHand]

"I believe the French study is only looking at those who develop ARDS. That is only a fraction of those who will get the disease. Among that group, the fatality rate is 100 times normal."

Yes, you are right. I should have read it more closely. After reading the following paragraph from your linked article, it makes much more sense...

There are not many assessments available with regards with the incidence of death from ARDS due to seasonal influenza in the litterature. Empirical evidence suggests in France that less than 5 to 10 of such cases are identified each year, when an average of 6 million seasonal infections are estimated from the French Sentinelles system [3]. We may therefore assume, waiting for better estimates in the future, that deaths from ARDS due to seasonal influenza is an exceptional event, which occurs once every million infected patients.

1 in 10,000 is much, much worse than 5/10 in 6,000,000.