.JPG)
This image of the sun shows no sunspots continuing to be the case
Posted on 08/21/2009 6:31:03 PM PDT by neverdem
This image of the sun shows no sunspots continuing to be the case
The sun seems to be back to its slumbering ways as we head towards the fall 2009.
During the spring and summer months, sunspot activity, one measure of the sun’s energy output (another is the 10.7cm radio flux), was quite active. In July, the strongest flare in two years erupted from a spot that was rotating across the face of the sun. July was the third month in a row with heightened activity; this suggested a trend which would at last fall in line with projections for solar change.
However, solar physics is still a science very much on the frontier of discovery. I have read some blogs where contributors to “Web” thoughts are quite harsh and quick to weigh in that these missed forecasts show that scientists haven’t a clue about what the sun is doing.
Such viewpoints illustrate poor understanding of what science is all about. It’s a discovery process. Meteorologists don’t always get the forecast right (which is frustrating to me and all weather scientists) but it doesn’t mean our projections have no value at all. Astronomers have had to “change their story” over the centuries as better detection methods became available, etc. Furthermore, natural processes stump the most learned experts at times: earthquakes, volcanoes, tornadoes, and so forth.
Now, let’s lay aside the hits and misses of the science community and focus on what the sun is doing now. Since mid-July our friendly neighborhood star has gone blank again. It’s the longest blank streak in a year. This means a continuation of the deepest solar minimum in a hundred years: at least for now. The longest number of consecutive blank days during the present cycle 23/24 minimum was 52 during the summer of 2008. The most recent count was 41 as of August 20th.
If 2009 logs 64% blank days during the remainder of the year, it will better 2008. Given that the ratio YTD is 4/5 (or about 80%) through August 20, it’s quite possible 2009 will displace 2008 as the quietest year since 1913.
None of this is to say we’re entering some kind of “Dalton Minimum” or worse yet a “Maunder Minimum”. If this were to occur, then it’s possible a more significant and prolonged global cooling could occur. However the data supporting such a conclusion, although somewhat correlated to previous temperature dips, is not an iron clad case. Just as global warming as presented today is not.
If global warming were so over-riding of any natural process, (the warming of 1980-2000 is offered up as “proof”), please tell me why the trend has gone neutral to slightly cooler over the past few years. One would expect a continued upward trend given more and more carbon dioxide and methane in the air every year. Perhaps the sun and more likely oceanic cycles have a lot to do with this variation. If these fluctuations out of our control can make such a difference (as the 1997-1998 El Nino did with worldwide warming) in the global temperature distribution then who’s to say that the late 20th Century surge in heat is just another significant but natural anomaly like the sun’s present sleepiness, or record cold during the past few winters in Canada and the Great Lakes?
The model projections of a few years ago have completely missed the boat regarding 2009 conditions. Human–induced global warming (climate change) advocates will quickly retort that the models weren’t as accurate back then. Fair enough; but we’re still not seeing the response one would expect of a consistent upward trend in temperatures with more recent numbers. Now some are claiming that warming has taken a break until 2015, after which it will resume. Excuse me? This is the crux of my point; the story keeps changing but the problem is the data doesn’t match up. Just as with the sun, this points to an incomplete knowledge.
If the human influence is easily overshadowed (by cooling) during years when the LaNina is only moderate and arctic ice is less than 30 years ago, it begs the question what’s really going on.
Perhaps mankind is contributing to global climate change; if so, which is certainly possible, the signal may be much less than the projections alarmists put forth. The climate change could be due to urbanization, desertification and deforestation, which are all serious global issues we should aggressively combat.
As for arctic ice, unusual weather patterns and ocean currents play a role; even the NSIDC stated on August 4, 2009 that unseasonably strong southerly wind currents were primarily to blame for rapid July ice melt. This is something one would expect within a range of values over time. Please remember the arctic sea ice database is only 30 years old (it comes from satellites beginning in 1979) so the record minimum of 2007 means it’s the lowest in 30 years, which isn’t so remarkable.
Finally, this author is neither a “global warming denier” nor a “global cooling denier”. The fact that a lot of other scientists trumpet global warming/cooling (many more in the warm camp of course) doom doesn’t satisfy me that either assertion is true.
Consistent data would.
We are 5,000 years overdue for the next glacial cycle, and folks who know that are disturbed that there are those who want to put an end to Global Warming ~ it's all that's keeping the ice melted!
That lucky ol’ sun got nothin’ to do but roll around heaven all day.
Ping
This idea of the Dalton Minimum and the very minimal sunspot activity is covered in the following documentary video. All the links below are for the same documentary. And it’s an interesting and very informative documentary for everyone to see...
It’s one thing to gripe and complain about these things and disagree with it, but it’s quite *another* to convince your friends and neighbors and relatives and coworkers...
THEREFORE..., it’s also absolutely necessary for people to know the information in the following documentary. If there were simply *one* video that you could see and/or show people you know... this would be the *one*...
The following is an *excellent* video documentary on the so-called “Global Warming” I would recommend it to all FReepers. It’s a very well-made documentary.
“The Great Global Warming Swindle”
If you want to download it, via a BitTorrent site (using a BitTorrent client), you can get it at the following link.
http://thepiratebay.org/torrent/3635222/The_Great_Global_Warming_Swindle
[this is a high-quality copy, of about a gigabyte in size...]
It’s worth seeing and having for relatives, friends, neighbors and coworkers to see.
Also, see it online here...
http://www.moviesfoundonline.com/great_global_warming_swindle.php
[this one is considerably lower quality, is a flash video and viewable online, of course...]
Buy it here...
http://www.amazon.com/dp/B000WLUXZE
[this one would be the very highest quality version, on a DVD disk, of several gigabytes in size...]
—
Also, in split parts on YouTube...
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 1 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMA6sszChwQ
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 2 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERisgJ3QWjk
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 3 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HLVYwmZoxc
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 4 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jr-AG3BA1Go
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 5 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbllTsBHuxk
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 6 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KyK7C1OrAAo
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 7 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrIX8LcAuMQ
The Great Global Warming Swindle (Part 8 of 8)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-ZmCDOZbtM
IMHO I think that there is no coincidence that the earth has cooled slightly and the sun has gone dormant at the same time.
Let it snow.
Let it SNOW.
LET IT SNOW!
SUNSPOTS SEEM TO HAVE VANISHED
The Ongoing Solar Minimum is the Deepest in a Century.
Dennis Holley
Jul 21, 2009
— In 2008, no sunspots were observed on 266 of the year’s 366 days (73%), a low surpassed only in 1913, which had 311 spotless days (85%). —
A sunspot is an area on the Sun’s surface (photosphere) that is marked by intense magnetic activity, which inhibits convection (heat transfer currents). This results in areas (spots) of reduced surface temperature that appear darker in color than their surroundings.
Sunspots tend to occur in pairs that have magnetic fields pointing in opposite directions. A typical spot consists of a dark region called the umbra, surrounded by a lighter region known as the penumbra. Sunspots appear darker than their surroundings because the surface of the Sun (the photosphere) is about 10,000 degrees F, while the umbra is about 6,300 degrees F. Sunspots are quite large as demonstrated by the fact that an average size sunspot is about the same size as the Earth.
Sunspot Numbers
Galileo and others made the first European observations of sunspots around 1610 and continuous daily observations of sunspots were first started at the Zurich Observatory in 1849. The sunspot number is calculated by first counting the number of sunspot groups and then the number of individual sunspots.
The “sunspot number” is then given by the sum of the number of individual sunspots times the number of groups. Since most sunspot groups have, on average, about ten spots, this formula for counting sunspots gives reliable numbers even when the observing conditions are less than ideal and small spots are hard to see.
The Solar Cycle
Sunspots increase and decrease through an average cycle of 11 years. Dating back to 1749, Earth has experienced 23 full solar cycles where the number of sunspots have gone from a minimum, to a maximum and back to the next minimum, through approximate 11 year cycles. In the 23rd cycle, the number of sunspots reached a peak in May, 2000 when the number of sunspots were measured at around 170.
A secondary sunspot maximum occurred near the beginning of 2002 where the sunspot number was about 150. The sunspot minimum for Cycle 23 occurred through mid 2007.
What has Happened to Sunspot Cycle 24?
It’s normal for the old and new sunspot cycles to overlap for a time before the old one completely fades away, but Solar Cycle 24 has been very slow to ramp up. Solar Cycle 24 began in January 2008 However, the reverse polarity sunspot that signaled the start of cycle 24 on January 4th dissolved within two days after that.
In fact, while 2008 was supposed to signal the beginning of cycle 24 and an increase in sunspot numbers, the lack of sunspots in 2008 made it a century-level year in terms of solar quiet. Remarkably, sunspot counts for 2009 have dropped even lower. As of March 31, 2009, there were no sunspots on 78 of 2009’s 90 days to that date (87%). The 100-year record for a full year is 311 spotless days (85%) in 1913.
Why do Sunspots Matter?
Low sunspot numbers have been historically linked to global cooling several times over the past 400 years or so. The Maunder Minimum is the name given to the period roughly spanning 1645 to 1715 when sunspots became exceedingly rare, as noted by solar observers of the time. The period was named after the solar astronomer Edward W. Maunder (1851–1928).
During one 30-year period within the Maunder Minimum, astronomers observed only about 50 sunspots, as opposed to a more typical 40,000–50,000 spots in modern times. More importantly, the Maunder Minimum coincided with the coldest part of the Little Ice Age, during which Europe and North America, and perhaps much of the rest of the world, were subjected to bitterly cold winters.
The Dalton Minimum was a period of low sunspot activity. Named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, this minimum lasted from about 1790 to 1830. Like the Maunder Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. For example, some weather reporting stations experienced a 2.0 °C decline over 20 years. The Year Without a Summer, in 1816, also occurred during the Dalton Minimum.
Whether there is a definite causal connection between low sunspot activity and colder winters and cooler summers is the subject of ongoing debate. However, even the possibility of such a connection given the overdue beginning of cycle 24 should give one pause. All humans can do is wait and watch.
http://astrophysics.suite101.com/article.cfm/where_have_all_the_sunspots_gone
Sierra Environmental Studies Foundation: Cooler Temps — Dalton Minimum Returns [PDF] - ‘Global warming hype could be masking a more immediate climate problem. A problem that could have a larger impact on our lives than global warming over the next 20 years. Solar scientists have predicted the return of the Dalton Minimum, which was the result of two low intensity sunspot cycles lasting over 28 years. During the early 1800s the average temperatures in the Mid West were 2-4 degrees cooler than the 20th Century average. In many areas it was much dryer than average, especially along the California coast. We have already started to see some ocean cooling as we leave sunspot cycle 23 and enter sunspot cycle 24, the first of the two predicted minimum cycles...’
[ http://www.solomonia.com/blog/headlineblog/archives/2008/03/cooler-temps-dalton-minimum-re/ ]
The PDF paper referenced...
http://sesfoundation.org/dalton_minimum.pdf
NASA now saying that a Dalton Minimum repeat is possible
July 28, 2009
Guest Post by David Archibald
NASA’s David Hathaway has adjusted his expectations of Solar Cycle 24 downwards. He is quoted in the New York Times here Specifically, he said:
” Still, something like the Dalton Minimum — two solar cycles in the early 1800s that peaked at about an average of 50 sunspots — lies in the realm of the possible.”
NASA has caught up with my prediction in early 2006 of a Dalton Minimum repeat, so for a brief, shining moment of three years, I have had a better track record in predicting solar activity than NASA.
[graphic on original web page...]
The graphic above is modified from a paper I published in March, 2006. Even based on our understanding of solar – climate relationship at the time, it was evident the range of Solar Cycle 24 amplitude predictions would result in a 2°C range in temperature. The climate science community was oblivious to this, despite billions being spent. To borrow a term from the leftist lexicon, the predictions above Badalyan are now discredited elements.
Let’s now examine another successful prediction of mine. In March, 2008 at the first Heartland climate conference in New York, I predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would mean that it would not be a good time to be a Canadian wheat farmer. Lo and behold, the Canadian wheat crop is down 20% this year due to a cold spring and dry fields. Story here.
The oceans are losing heat, so the Canadian wheat belt will just get colder and drier as Solar Cycle 24 progresses. As Mark Steyn recently said, anyone under the age of 29 has not experienced global warming. A Dalton Minimum repeat will mean that they will have to wait to the age of 54 odd to experience a warming trend.
Where to now? The F 10.7 flux continues to flatline. All the volatility has gone out of it. In terms of picking the month of minimum for the Solar Cycle 23/24 transition, I think the solar community will put it in the middle of the F 10.7 quiet period due to the lack of sunspots. We won’t know how long that quiet period is until solar activity ramps up again. So picking the month of minimum at the moment may just be guessing.
Dr Hathaway says that we are not in for a Maunder Minimum, and I agree with him. I have been contacted by a gentleman from the lower 48 who has a very good solar activity model. It hindcasts the 20th century almost perfectly, so I have a lot of faith in what it is predicting for the 21st century, which is a couple of very weak cycles and then back to normal as we have known it. I consider his model to be a major advance in solar science.
What I am now examining is the possibility that there will not be a solar magnetic reversal at the Solar Cycle 24 maximum.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/28/nasa-now-saying-that-a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-possible/
You said — We are 5,000 years overdue for the next glacial cycle, and folks who know that are disturbed that there are those who want to put an end to Global Warming...
—
It’s a sort of “convoluted process” that is going for the why and how the sun affects the weather here on earth. It’s not as straightforward as you might think. Take a look at that video in Post #17 and that will give you some idea about it. It may *surprise you* for the reason why things warm up and then cool down ... on earth.
It doesn’t have to do with the sun (necessarily) heating up and cooling off, but rather with the sunspot activity. But, the sunspot activity actually affects *something else* and *not* directly the weather on earth... surprise, surprise... LOL...
Anyway, when there is a sunspot minimum for a long period of time, then you’re going to get cooler weather. But, when there is increased sunspot activity over a longer period of time, then you’re going to have things warm up.
We’re in what is similar to a “Dalton Minimum” right now...., and that will probably mean colder weather for another decade, a shift in the grow zones, to the south, by one grow zone (across this country) and then about a 30% loss in crop output in the U.S. over the next decade because of that...
Dalton Minimum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_Minimum
And then for the “Little Ice Age” we had a few hundred years ago, look at...
Maunder Minimum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum
Little Ice Age
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age
You said — IMHO I think that there is no coincidence that the earth has cooled slightly and the sun has gone dormant at the same time.
—
If you look at that documentary that I posted up above and read up on on the scientific information about it, you’ll find out that it’s not the “heat output” of the sun that affects the earth’s temperature. No..., it’s a more *convoluted process* from the sun that affects something else that affects something else and then, down the line, it eventually has an effect on temperature of the planet.
It’s not what you might think at first. Most people think that... “Oh, the sun is heating up, the earth heats up, and the suns cools down and the earth cools down...” — but it’s not quite like that... :-)
Earth's a self correcting system up to a point. Seems this is one of those the tide comes in, the tide goes out - kind of things.
Rather chilling relationships in fact.
Can We Succeed in Afghanistan?
Afghan war poll triggers Obama political alarms
History’s Painful Lessons Politically, this is a very instructive recount of the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act of 1988.
Some noteworthy articles about politics, foreign or military affairs, IMHO, FReepmail me if you want on or off my list.
One of the worst possible things that could happen to us is a repeat of the 1800s. This time we’d have billions of people starve.
The fact that the solar wind is off by 25% or more allows cosmic rays to bombard our upper atmosphere which in turn creates particles there that allow for more cloud formation. (This greater amount of clouds has a cooling effect all its own as it blocks the suns rays from reaching the Earth and its oceans and warming it/them.)
I don't know if you have noticed but this "summer" has been the cloudiest (and coolest) I can remember in my forty years of life on this planet.
Like I said, there is no coincidence.
Please elaborate further if you can.
Inquiring mind want to know.... 8^P
That’s what I was getting at... it’s cosmic radiation from outer space and cloud formation that is doing it... :-)
And also the Solar Wind is directly affected by the sunspot activity...
So..., it’s quite an interesting and convoluted process... :-)
I have a feeling it is going to be quite a cold and possibly snowy winter this year!
Good thing we have a Nissan Xtera!
I’ve been reading some material from a scientist who was predicting a “Dalton Minimum” about two years ago, and he says now that it’s absolutely certain. According to him, a Dalton Minimum means that our “grow zones” in the U.S. will shift south by one grow zone, which will reduce crop output by about 30% over the next decade.
Like I said, according to him, a Dalton Minimum is certain and the reduced temperatures for the next decade is therefore, certain, too...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.