[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Yes. Current make up is 255 to 178, a 77 seat difference. A 20 seat switch would make it 235 to 198, and even Republicans picking up 2 seats would still put them 35 seats down.

However, if the polling continues at it’s current pace, you could see a soft chance at a 30 seat flip. That would put the Republicans in good position for a house take over with a successful Presidential candidate in 2012.

But even with the Democrats collapsing right now, it seems unlikely that the Republicans can recapture the House in 2010.

[Nonstatist]

soft chance at a 30 seat flip

There isnt a blue dog seat that is "safe" IMO (52 seats), not to mention the vacancies. As recently as 2006 Reps had a majority in the House... We just dont know what the upside is.

[expatinparis]

I think you are looking at these numbers incorrectly.

To gain a majority in the House you need 218- that’s the magic number. There are 435 seats in the House and since it is basically a zero sum game (every seat the Dems lose the GOP picks up- discounting any potential independent members of the House), the GOP only needs to gain 40 seats exactly to gain a majority.

This is still alot- but less than they gained in the 1994 election (54).

[SUSSA]

It’s a 50 seat flip in the House giving Republicans a 20 seat majority.

The Senate will only flip 5 seats. With the RINO votes not enough to block most bad bills.

[B Knotts]

Current make up is 255 to 178, a 77 seat difference.

...

But even with the Democrats collapsing right now, it seems unlikely that the Republicans can recapture the House in 2010.

In 1993, the Democrats held a 258-176 seat advantage.

In 1994, the voters threw them out, and gave the GOP a 230-204 advantage.

Maybe it's a long shot, but it's happened before.

[LS]

I don't think it's unlikely at all. In fact, I'll be surprised if we don't come very close to taking back the House. IMHO, that won't be enough: allowing for RINOs, I think we need to win something like 80-100 seats to smack down Obammy, and need to have a conservative (not just Republican) gain of about 5-6 seats to have a good shot at stopping him in the Senate. Now, the Senate isn't looking nearly as bad as it was two months ago.

But at the rate the Dems are melting down and angering people, there is a LONG way to go, and it's possible if the Republicans just let the Dems hang themselves that we could see some serious action in 2010.