Posted on 08/16/2009 9:48:05 AM PDT by kcvl
By Hastings Wyman Southern Political Report
August 14, 2009 —The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has put all three Arkansas congressional seats held by Democrats on its target list for 2010. Most of this is based on the strength of John McCain’s strong victory here over Barack Obama in 2008 -- 58% to 38% statewide. But whether McCain’s strength, a result in part of still-smoldering resentment of Obama by some Hillary Clinton supporters, will translate into Republican congressional votes next year is problematic.
For starters, none of the three Democratic incumbents has a history of close races. Indeed, none of them had Republican opposition in 2008 and none received less than 60% of the vote in 2006. (The GOP argues, however, that not having to wage a competitive campaign recently leaves them less prepared to cope with a strong challenge next year.)
Moreover, the statewide races on the ballot are likely to favor Democrats. Gov. Mike Beebe is a strong bet for re-election and so far has no likely opponent. While US Sen. Blanche Lincoln could have a tougher race, so far a solid challenger has not emerged to oppose her.
Nevertheless, neither Obama nor his policies get high marks in Arkansas and could form the basis for strong congressional challenges. If the political environment nationally turns against Obama, it will turn against him even more so in Arkansas. The Democratic incumbents, however, are well aware of this, and are displaying nimble footing in dealing with such controversial matters as health care and carbon emissions curbs, which could hurt the state’s considerable oil and natural gas industry. The recent overflow crowd at a Little Rock town hall meeting on health care got considerable publicity for the unruliness of some of the participants. One observer, however, says “There was a lot of hoopin’ and hollerin’, but the people who got angriest were the older women,” suggesting more depth to the health reform foes than ‘organized protests’ would indicate. Thus, Democrats may be on the defensive next year.
The 1st District (Jonesboro, etc.), consisting mainly of Mississippi Delta farmland, is represented by seven-term US Rep. Marion Berry. Berry’s moderate voting record -- 60% liberal, 39% conservative -- suits this small-town and agricultural district fairly well. In 2006, the last year he had GOP opposition, Berry won by 69% to 31%. At mid-year, Berry had $538,000 cash-on-hand. On the down side, Berry has gotten some bad ink for large federal farm subsidies that have come to his family’s corporation and for allegedly underreporting the value of his home in Washington, DC, although there have been no allegations of illegality.
Berry has drawn a potentially strong challenger in Rick Crawford, a former rodeo announcer, former bronco rider and current owner of AgWatch Network (agricultural radio and TV broadcasting). However, Crawford has not gotten out of the chute fast on fundraising, with only $26,000 at midyear. Crawford is supported by the NRCC, so watch his 3rd Quarter money numbers carefully. In the GOP’s favor, McCain carried the district 60% to Obama’s 40% (excluding minor candidates).
The 2nd District (Little Rock, etc.) is the home-base of popular seven-term US Rep. Vic Snyder, the 61-year-old father of toddler triplets. Snyder’s somewhat liberal voting record -- averaging 67% liberal in 2006, says the National Journal -- has provided ample fodder for conservative opponents, but has not given him serious problems with the voters in this state capitol-based district, where “government” is not a dirty word. In 2006, he defeated his last Republican opponent by 61% to 39%. Snyder only raises money during an election year, so he brought in a paltry $8.95 in the 2nd Quarter of this year, bringing his on-hand total to $12,394. But once a campaign gets going, he doesn’t have trouble getting enough contributions to finance an effective re-election effort. In addition, says one Little Rock Republican source, “Everybody in the gauntlet has run against Snyder and not clipped him.”
Republicans, however, are optimistic about mounting a strong challenge to Snyder next year. For starters, McCain got 55% here to Obama’s 45%. The name most mentioned -- though it is not a done deal -- is that of investment banker French Hill. Hill’s background in business, government and politics would make him a formidable contender. He served in several high posts in the George H. W. Bush administration, including White House economic advisor and as a Treasury Department official. In 2008, Hill was the finance chairman for former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s presidential campaign. Hill has also talked to the National Republican Senatorial Committee about a race against Lincoln, but sources say he’s more interested in the congressional race. “He’s thinking about it pretty hard,” says one GOP insider. “French Hill is the real deal. He can raise money,” says anotherRepublican source.
The 4th District (Texarkana, etc.) has been represented by US Rep. Mike Ross since 2000, when he defeated incumbent Republican Jay Dickey. Ross, like Berry and to a lesser extent Snyder, has maintained a middle-of-the-road voting record, with a 58% liberal, 42% conservative average score. Active in the Blue Dog coalition of right-leaning Democrats, Ross chairs the group’s health care task force and has recently taken the lead in pushing for a health care package with more centrist appeal. Ross has also taken a conservative position on “cap-and-trade,” the carbon-emissions legislation. He has one announced opponent, farmer and conservative activist Marc Rosson, but GOP candidate recruitment is on-going in the district. Ross has $950,000 cash-on-hand. McCain got 59% here to Obama’s 41%, but Republicans are less likely to make Ross a major target than the other two Democratic districts here. Indeed, avers a Republican insider, “Ross is unbeatable.”
In sum, look for the GOP to place its main emphasis in Arkansas on the 2nd District (Snyder), followed by the 1st District (Berry), with the 4th District (Ross) trailing.
“While US Sen. Blanche Lincoln could have a tougher race, so far a solid challenger has not emerged to oppose her.”
State Senator Gilbert Baker could beat her, I hope he runs.
I live in Jonesboro and hate that SOB Marion Berry.
What part ot town do you live in , I grew up in Jonesboro
in Memphis now. thanks
Melissa
I am amazed at how conservative ARKansas is but they keep electing these idiots. Amazing isn’t it.
Westside, off of Dan Ave.
Granted, congressional elections are a long way in the future but as things stand now Nov 2010 should be either a fairly good year or a blow-out (1994 style) year for the GOP.
But there’s still plenty of time for Republicans to screw it up.
abump
I grew up there on Nesbitt.
BUT THIS YEAR IS DIFFERENT: PEOPLE ARE ANGRY!
Huckster literally crippled the state GOP. The party was stronger in the ‘90s than it is today. We’ve got fewer Republicans in statewide office (zero) since before 1966, and the same number in federal office (one) we had beginning in ‘66. Utterly inexcusable. Weakest GOP presence of any Southern state and no real first-tier farm team that can challenge the Dem incumbents.
Frustrating isn’t it.
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