Your analysis is 100% on target.
We can hope that he recognizes that as a temporary incumbent there's absolutely nothing he can do to avoid a rout next time, so he is free to vote his conscience.
But he did take an oath to represent his constituents' wishes, not those of us here on FR. We can't ask him to act like an arrogant dictator & haughtily ignore them. He has to at least pretend to be working for them, for pete's sake. If the shoe were on the other foot, we'd all be screaming bloody murder, and with complete justification.
Hopefully, however, he sees or at least will eventually see that doing the right thing for his constituents' progeny constitutes a higher moral imperative and he'll vote against the barbaric monstrosity that this bill truly is since no matter what he does, he will not be re-elected in that majority-black democratic district.
Unlike many Ds who are about to do JUST THAT! All they need to know is that people oppose this bill 57 to 32 nationally, and they're about to RAM it down our throats.
I agree to a point, however, I've been hearing many reps in many districts say they don't always vote the exact wishes of their districts (wow, really?), but they vote their consciences on issues (wow, that's reassuring).
Why can't this guy just do that once on this crazy monstrosity.
I like your thought about ‘at least pretend to listen.’ Right, that puts him right alongside all the other, non-listening pretend reps...so at least tow that line, in reverse, if you can't publicly tow the line.