Forget about TD-2. I think Ana has been born. NHC is marking the area in red.
Posted on 08/12/2009 3:38:13 AM PDT by rdl6989
The second tropical depression in the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season formed early Tuesday. An area of low pressure a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands became organized enough to gain depression status. Sustained winds are around 30 mph with gusts of 40 mph.
The wave that has become Tropical Depression Two has looked promising for development since emerging from Africa Sunday night. A persistent clustering of thunderstorms near the center of low pressure within the wave led to the upgrade.
Conditions remain favorable for the depression to gain strength because waters over this area of the Atlantic are warm and winds aloft in the area are light. This means it is likely that the depression will become the first named storm of the year within 48 hours as it tracks over progressively warmer waters. The first name on the Atlantic storm list for this year is Ana.
(Excerpt) Read more at accuweather.com ...
The above forecast map is quite accurate most times with slight changes as storm gets closer. When Ike was headed for South Texas last year, this forecast map had it headed straight for Houston.
NOAA’s going to be watching this like a hawk and will dive in at the first sustained wind speed of 39; they know they need to name a storm before the 15th of Aug or they will be forced to furlough half the crew.
If this is another Andrew, then they’ll still blame W for his hatred of affluent caucasians.......
Amazing how accurate some long-range forecasts can be.
I’m quite positive there are plenty of eyes on TD2 and the other system coming off of Africa.
Why do I get the feeling things are going to get busy now??
Agreed. We're just now getting to the biggest part of the season.
bump - mark - thanks for the post
The much talked about tropical wave behind TD2 is now directly south of the Cape Verde Islands. Early morning infrared imagery shows that convection is on the rise. Gradual organization should commence as conditions remain favorable for development. TD2 is moistening up the atmosphere ahead of the system and shear is minimal. The GFS, ECMWF, CMC, and now the UKMET all suggest that a significant hurricane will be treking across the central Atlantic over the next 5+ days.
http://stormthreat.blogspot.com/
ECMWF is really off now. It has the storms tracking much more rapidly than reality. The fact that it had Ike headed right for Houston last year was luck of the draw more than anything else. If you look at the track it is predicting today, you’ll see it still is predicting much too rapid forward motion, and recurving northeast so rapidly it won’t come within 700NM of the US, and the closest approach would probably be around NYC or Boston.
Forget about TD-2. I think Ana has been born. NHC is marking the area in red.
Who has the hurricane ping list?
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