Posted on 08/05/2009 1:12:44 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Nearly 10 years after a RAND study predicted the US side easily beats China in an air war over the Taiwan Straits, the think-tank has published a new monograph online today that reverses its former opinion.
Now, a People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) bristling with a newly acquired arsenal -- including Su-27 and J-10 fighters, AA-12 and PL-12 missiles, and short-range ballistic missiles -- defeats the US side. Moreover, the PLAAF defeats the US side with or without F-22s, with or without access to Kadena Air Base in Okinawa and with or without the participation of two US carrier battle groups, according to the monograph.
RAND's analysis "suggests that a credible case can be made that the air war for Taiwan could essentially be over before much of the Blue air force has even fired a shot. Threats to Blue air bases and a more evenly matched qualitiative balance combine to paint a very troubling picture."
Personally, I would be careful to trust any military analysis that states -- on two occasions -- the US Marine Corps flies F/A-18E/Fs (... er, no, not in this lifetme). But the overall facts in RAND's air war scenario appear very persuasive, at least to this observer.
In a war over Taiwan, China may think twice about striking sovereign Japanese territory on Okinawa, or sovereign US territory on Guam. But RAND's analysts are prudent to assume that the PLAAF's strategy would seek to maximize its chances of success in a battle over the future of Taiwan.
The scenario assumes a 27:1 kill ratio for the F-22, 4.5:1 kill ratio for the F-15 and a 2.6:1 kill ratio for carrier-based F/A-18E/Fs, which seems to reflect conventional wisdom. But that's not hardly enough. By striking Kadena and Taiwan air bases with missile attacks, the PLAAF can generate 3.7 times more sorties than the blue forces. On the first day, the PLAAF loses 241 jets compared to 147 jets for the Blue forces, including one F-22. But the PLAAF still dramatically outnumbers Blue forces and wins the war of attrition.
Interestingly, the new RAND monograph is not critical at all of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. Last year, John Stillon, a senior RAND analyst was fired after he put the think-tank in an awkward position. Stillon's presntation on the results of the Pacific Vision wargame, which were leaked to the press and posted on this blog, noted the F-35 "can't turn, can't climb and can't run". In the new study, RAND says "the F-22 and the still-to-come F-35 can expect to offer meaningful aircraft-on-aircraft technological advantages over what the PLAAF will bring to the fight".
China’s strategy is dependent on several key events.
First and foremost, they need a major fifth column apparatus in Taiwan. This would be set up over the course of many months or even years. It would have a primary branch, that would actively seek to overthrow the civil authorities and military; and a secondary branch to encourage inaction and acceptance.
Second, they need a massive flotilla of ships capable of navigating the rough waters of the Taiwan Strait. This is because, as with the D-Day invasion of Europe, acceptable personnel losses in the crossing would be as high as 90% of personnel, as long as a beachhead was accomplished in the given window of opportunity.
This is because the mission is to quickly occupy the major Taiwanese cities. Once they have done so, China launches a major worldwide diplomatic effort to declare any effort to stop them acts of “aggressive war against China”. Since almost all the nations of the world (and the US) accept that Taiwan is part of China, this is an easy case to make.
By getting enough personnel into the cities of Taiwan, they will be impossible to root out without destroying those cities.
This brings in the third element, which is to by some means to prevent the US Navy from interceding to prevent the invasion. The Chinese military have published a “white paper”, on the subject of an unconventional attack on the US as a distraction. Ideally an attack that would neutralize the only two US Pacific deep water ports, at Bremerton and San Diego. But anything that would distract the US for a few days would do.
The final element would be to use their thousand-odd missiles pointing at Taiwan to neutralize as much of the Taiwanese military as possible. Importantly, with the idea that some of the Taiwanese military will have already been neutralized by the fifth columnists, so that the missiles can be concentrated against the most effective parts remaining.
Got it. The scenario assumes a 4.5 to 1 kill ratio for the F-15. While in reality, across all Air Forces, and all enemies, so far the score is 104 to ZERO. No F-15 air superiority model has ever been shot down,,PERIOD.
I guess the Chicom Peeps Liberation Air Force, with aces like Wong Wei hitting our P-3, these guys will finally be the nemesis of the F-15.
Amazing.
“The Divine One” is he who walks upon water, heals the sick and makes the legs of news anchors “tingle.”
This current group in Washington will damage all Americans. The horror being they will harm us in good faith thinking they are doing well. God help us!
Good faith? Are you kidding? They intend to do exactly what they are doing. They want to deconstruct, demilitarize, and disarm the US. That IS their intention ... and that is what they are doing well.
No I am not joking. In my opinion they are in good faith. That is the horror. They believe what they are doing is good. It isn’t!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.