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Third parties occasionally manage to win in Congressional races (Sanders, LIEberman, Goode, etc.), unlike Presidential elections where it's nearly impossible. With Kelly's entry, the best-case scenario for us is Scozzafava running hard-left and splitting the liberal vote with the RAT candidate. Kelly could theoretically win with as little as 34% of vote. He'e be a reliable conservative vote and caucus with the GOP, and probably get nominated on the GOP line as well when he runs for a full term in 2010. It's a long shot but it's possible.

I can't see anything positive from Scozzafava or the RAT candidate winning a special election. Either way it would really difficult to defeat an incumbent liberal Congressman in 2010. Scozzafava would have the entire GOP establishment in Washington on her side in a primary, and a RAT congressman would be much stronger as an incumbent in a state like New York.

I don't mind voting third party, when either A) The Republican candidate is so far left they are indistinguishable or even worse than a lot of Democrats, or B) The Republican candidate is hopelessly inept/clueless/crooked and guaranteed to lose (polling behind by at least 20-30 points for months) and need to send the state patty a message about the bozo they nominated. It's throwing a temper tantrum and voting third party in a close race like center-right Norm Coleman vs. unhinged marxist Al Franken that's stupid.