Posted on 07/08/2009 7:43:15 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
There has been much talk over Sarah Palin’s shock announcement that she is resigning from her post as Governor of Alaska before the end of the first term. The primary questions in much of the coverage have been “What the hell is she up to?” and “Why on Earth does this help her?”
I am convinced the answers are quite straight forward: Sarah Palin has decided to run for the 2012 Republican nomination for the President of the United States, and to do this she needs to get out of Alaska.
Ever since she was picked as John McCain’s Vice-Presidential candidate last year, Governor Palin’s advisers have split into two groups: those who felt she must not lose focus on her political standing in her home state, and those who believe she should quickly leave Juneau behind her and step up to the national stage. The tussle between them has left her operation in a mess since the election.
The more ambitious second group have now won out, no doubt prompted by last week’s highly critical Vanity Fair piece. (The less than professional resignation speech heavily indicated it had been prepared at short notice.) The piece made many in the Palin camp feel she cannot afford to focus on governing until 2016 while her reputation continues to be trashed in the national media. Her comments in her resignation speech about “plodding along” also seemed to confirm rumours about frustration with her current role.
The Governor will now take part in the ridiculous American charade of running for office while denying doing so – something that contributed to the seeming vacuity of her speech. Her facebook notes talk of a “higher calling” and “forging progress” as part of a movement was couched in the usual language of such a tradition.
Those who claim she can prepare a run for federal office while remaining in her post fail to appreciate a couple of things about her state. The first is that the time zone is four hours behind DC and the rest of the East coast, meaning that early morning news can break and be watched by millions of Americans before the Governor and her staff have even woken up in the morning, making damage control extremely difficult.
The second is that Alaskans tend to be more internally-focused than most, and look very poorly on their politicians continually cavorting off to the lower 48. It takes twelve hours to fly from D.C. to Anchorage, and she could take a heavy hit in the polls if she was caught out of state on campaign activity causing her to be slow to respond to an event breaking back home.
Such travel is essential if she is going to compete for the 2012 nomination. One of Governor Palin’s serious weaknesses is a lack allies on the national stage. The best way for her to amend this is by raising money for Republican candidates across the country.
This will most likely be done through SarahPAC, the political action committee – a necessary requirement to run for federal office – that was unveiled in January. Palin is still the biggest draw for crowds in the GOP and there will be many candidates out there who would promise a lot in return for her support.
She will also start raising money for herself, as Mitt Romney’s wealth will give him a considerable advantage. Expect Palin to start giving prominent speeches on conservative principles as a way to start raking in the cash. She also needs to get more involved in D.C.-based think tanks, as a way to get conservative media intellectuals back on her side.
So, providing she makes the most of her freed-up schedule, what do we think of Sarah’s prospects? Punters should be careful not to be frightened off by the rumours of ethics complaints, after the Governor was exonerated on all 15 local charges, and with the FBI confirming there is no federal investigation underway.
Palin has been helped considerably by the revelations about Mark Sanford “hiking the Appalachian trail” (to coin a euphemism), as they fish in similar pools of voters. She should now have free reign to scoop up the Republicans who are both fiscally and socially conservative. In a split field, Palin will also benefit the most from second preferences by the time Super Tuesday rolls round, having the widest approval cover among identified Republicans. The lack of a candidate in the race with clear crossover appeal, such as McCain in 2008, will also strengthen her hand in the demographics of the primary electorate.
My overall feeling remains that, while I am extremely sceptical of her chances in the general, she has considerably better prospects than some of the longer odds available for the nomination. These will undoubtedly shorten when she formally announces.
She should come out clearly now as a candidate, and say no to any fed funding. And, she maybe ought to offer the VP to Obama.
Too early. The field hasn’t even started to gel yet.
In 3 years we might know more. The ones in the primary last year may not even try again and their are no rumblings from within the Party.
I though I read about Romney and something in Utah or Nevada. Sanford, I think has really been dealt himself a crippling blow from which he has a slim-to-none chance of recovery.
Sarah Plain hasn’t even let her ‘cat(s)’ out of the bag yet ... although the Dems/MSM are scared already. A run from now till the 2011 Primaries is not very sustainable anyway.
One glaringly bad piece of advice in that article - “She also needs to get more involved in D.C.-based think tanks, as a way to get conservative media intellectuals back on her side.”
What Sarah Palin needs to do is make speeches at the chamber of commerce dinners and events all around the country. She needs to stay out of Washington and away from the “intellectuals.”
When the hordes of conservative voters are making her the runaway favorite for the GOP nomination, the “Washington Intellectuals” will leave Washington to see what the appeal is. Let them come to her.
I agree about Washington as a source of insular thought and elitism, but on the other hand, she needs to develop a good grounding in the expanse of conservative ideas. That is a need that can be filled by the Heritage Foundation and the American Enterprise Institute. Maybe she can meet them somewhere away from the swamp.
The consequences of Obama-ism have to bite.
If he’s saved from the worst aspects of himself, he’ll still be president in 2016. And maybe longer.
One angle I’ve not yet seen on this, though I’m probably not the first to think of it:
Remember that when on the campaign trail, Palin drew ENORMOUS crowds of rabid supporters. She will now be ideally suited to help other candidates at rallies and raising money. In the process, she would become the spokesperson of the Conservative movement, and in great position to run in 2012 for POTUS.
“She needs to stay out of Washington and away from the “intellectuals.”
I agree - she needs to stay away from DC and those that feed off DC. Once she gets into real America she will start drawing the crowds wherever she goes. At that point she will be unstoppable. She shouldn’t listen to the pundits, the media, the politicians - just plain American folk.
This is a repost of one I gave under my old moniker (Obushma)on another thread:
This is how Obumulus did it. He organized for 3 straight years over the internet and focused his laser beams on the caucuses (especially Iowa). He figured he could pull off enough primaries with a flood of new black voters (those who voted in the general election but never bothered in the primary system). He jumped ahead of Hillary and she played catch-up til mathematically eliminated by the press who by that time were firmly on his side. All the while collecting a paycheck, never earned a dime of it in the Senate. The rest is history.
Flash forward to SP. She MUST build an online army first. She is beginning to do that now. She has already got good GOP poll numbers, now for the purpose of boxing Romney and Huckabee into a corner-—she’s got to solidify the Evangelical base-—then draw a decent amount of moderate women (feminist???) into a GOP caucus/primary, they wouldn’t normally participate in and finish both of them off with disaffected PUMAS, Former Hillary Dems, Reagan Dems, and a Blue Collar Midwesterners/Westerners.
Mittens will probably win MA, MI, Utah and a number of the east coast primaries (except NH). But Sarah will win NH, PA, OH, CA, TX, SC, the Southeast, South (except AR), the Midwest & West. Huckabee will be competitive in several of the Southern states and will win his home state but he’ll bow out after Super Tuesday and reading the tea leaves will endorse Sarah in an attempt to secure the VP slot.
It’s a good chance we’ll see either a Palin-Romney ticket or A Palin-Huckabee ticket in 2012. The only other ticket that would make sense would be John Kasich from Ohio if he wins the Governorship (and depending on how close Palin and Obama poll in Ohio) or some unknown from Florida or PA (depending on how close she and Obama poll in those 2 states).
Good stuff!
The 2012 ticket will be Palin/Cornyn. She will need ‘gravitas’ more than a strategic geographical pick.
Gravitas? Is that like what Obama brought? Or Biden? Or Clinton? Anyone? Or is that a figment, propagated by the libs, to be used as a bar for republicans only? That gravitas?
That’s exactly what Obama picking Biden was about - however, the media wanted Obama to win so they didn’t use the term ‘gravitas’. They liked the fact that he made a “seasoned, experienced “ pick.
legends in their own minds, all of them.
Maybe she doesn’t want the job.
She can make a ton of money, influence policy, and avoid the meat grinder by giving speeches, campaigning for others, writing articles, etc.
We shall see...
My overall feeling remains that, while I am extremely sceptical of her chances in the general
Excuse me, but after Obama economics, the populace will be looking for “hope” and “change”. 3 1/2 years is a long time boys and girls.
Nope, too early. She needs to spend the time between now and 2010 building alliances with conservative groups trying to push back in the off-year elections against the Rahm-and-Nancy juggernaut.
She'll need allies in fighting the Alinskyite bear-baiting campaign in the media. She needs tag-team buddies, intellectual heavyweights who can work in her corner and dish out a little Triple H and Undertaker punishment to the ankle-biters and Rahm Emanuel.
On election night 2010, I want to see her standing in the open hatch of a Republican tank parked squarely on top of the supine form of Rahm Emanuel.
She's got a lot of teamwork and team-building to do between now and then. She referred to that in her resignation speech.
Think about Slick's appointments a second. Beastwoman to the Soviet healthcare bill. Ron Brown. Maddie Albright. Sandy Burglar. Bill Cohen. Janet Reno and Jamie "Chinese Wall" Gorelick. Donna Brazile. Jocelyn Elders. Robert Reich. Web Hubbell. "Gravitas"? Don't make me laugh.
I rest my case
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