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Palin's Base
Polster.com ^ | July 6, 2009 | Mark Blumenthal

Posted on 07/07/2009 6:56:25 AM PDT by Virginia Ridgerunner

In the wake of Sarah Palin's now well covered announcement last Friday that she will soon step down as Governor of Alaska, more than a few commentators have declared her political career over. While I'm not about to agree that her bizarre resignation represents a "shrewd move" -- it wasn't -- I do think proclamations of her political death are a bit premature.

(snip)

Looking at those numbers, I would argue that -- as of last week, at least -- Sarah Palin was the Republican best positioned to emulate the tactical model employed by Barack Obama in seeking the Democratic nomination in 2008. Remember that Obama did not begin as the first choice of party insiders or as a "front runner" in horse-race polls. Our trend estimate of vote preference results showed him as the choice of less than 20% of Democrats in late 2006. But Obama started with a real base, a core of true believers that showed up in big numbers whenever Obama gave a speech.

(snip)

So the point is this: The Pew numbers show that Palin's base as of June 2009 was as strong as Obama's on the eve of the 2008 campaign. Consider two numbers: Palin's "very favorable" rating last month on the Pew Research survey among all adults was 15%. Obama's very favorable score among all adults on a Pew Research survey in August 2007 was 14%.

As such, it is not completely crazy for Palin want to free herself from the time and travel constraints imposed by her gubernatorial commitments in Alaska.

(Excerpt) Read more at pollster.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Government; Politics/Elections; US: Alaska
KEYWORDS: 2012; gop; palin
Interesting analysis from a Rat pollster who's clearly seeing through the haze of liberal exuberance over Governor's Palin's resignation.
1 posted on 07/07/2009 6:56:26 AM PDT by Virginia Ridgerunner
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner

In a political world based on personality, you’d better have one. Sarah does. Her rivals don’t.


2 posted on 07/07/2009 7:04:46 AM PDT by kittymyrib
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner

Americans are sick of career politicians who are egregiously out of touch with the average person. Sarah is about as close to a real American as it gets and her family challenges, teen pregnancy, child with down syndrome, only accentuate this fact. She is a strong, intelligent woman who is also a Christian.

The relentless media attacks on her and her family tell me one thing, she scares the hell out of the left and they will do anything they can to diminish her and make her appear like a quirky white lady from Alaska.

Remember how Ronnie connected with the average American Joe? We need a new revolution, I’m not sure if it’s Sarah but I don’t see many other options.


3 posted on 07/07/2009 7:09:04 AM PDT by TSgt (Extreme vitriol and rancorous replies served daily. - Mike W USAF)
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner
While I'm not about to agree that her bizarre resignation represents a "shrewd move" -- it wasn't

Yet another one that does not get her. She did not do it to be 'shrewd'.
4 posted on 07/07/2009 7:25:05 AM PDT by TalonDJ
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner

To me, it sounds like a force exuberance masking panic.


5 posted on 07/07/2009 7:28:52 AM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner

B4l8r


6 posted on 07/07/2009 7:38:48 AM PDT by AFreeBird
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To: Abbeville Conservative; sleepwalker; Roses0508; feedback doctor; LibLieSlayer; ...

Palin PING!

Anyone on or off the Palin ping, write me.

7 posted on 07/07/2009 8:09:37 AM PDT by SolidWood (Sarah Palin: "Only dead fish go with the flow!")
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To: SolidWood

Thanks for the ping....
Sarah’s my hero...period.


8 posted on 07/07/2009 8:26:16 AM PDT by gimme1ibertee (Time to CLEAN HOUSE (AND Senate!!!) Kick their butts to the curb!!)
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner

The future of this country is literally hanging by a thread. The only thing that can stop BO and his crew from wrecking both the economy and society is for the Republicans to re-take the House of Representatives next year. Then, with the power of the purse, they could bring BO’s agenda to a screeching halt.

Now who better to help Republicans win marginal House districts than a campaigning Sarah Palin? If she can pull this off, there’s no stopping her.


9 posted on 07/07/2009 8:37:18 AM PDT by Malesherbes (Sauve Qui Peut)
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To: Malesherbes

I hope she (and others...not putting this all on her shoulders) can energize enough to get out an vote in ‘10 or we may never turn this ship around!!!!


10 posted on 07/07/2009 9:00:39 AM PDT by FlashBack ('0'bama: "Katrina on a Global Level")
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner

This is how Obumulus did it. He organized for 3 straight years over the internet and focused his laser beams on the caucuses (especially Iowa). He figured he could pull off enough primaries with a flood of new black voters (those who voted in the general election but never bothered in the primary system). He jumped ahead of Hillary and she played catch-up til mathematically eliminated by the press who by that time were firmly on his side. All the while collecting a paycheck, never earned a dime of it in the Senate. The rest is history.

Flash forward to SP. She MUST build an online army first. She is beginning to do that now. She has already got good GOP poll numbers, now for the purpose of boxing Romney and Huckabee into a corner-—she’s got to solidify the Evangelical base-—then draw a decent amount of moderate women (feminist???) into a GOP caucus/primary, they wouldn’t normally participate in and finish both of them off with disaffected PUMAS, Former Hillary Dems, Reagan Dems, and a Blue Collar Midwesterners/Westerners.

Mittens will probably win MA, MI, Utah and a number of the east coast primaries (except NH). But Sarah will win NH, PA, OH, CA, TX, SC, the Southeast, South (except AR), the Midwest & West. Huckabee will be competitive in several of the Southern states and will win his home state but he’ll bow out after Super Tuesday and reading the tea leaves will endorse Sarah in an attempt to secure the VP slot.

It’s a good chance we’ll see either a Palin-Romney ticket or A Palin-Huckabee ticket in 2012. The only other ticket that would make sense would be John Kasich from Ohio if he wins the Governorship (and depending on how close Palin and Obama poll in Ohio) or some unknown from Florida or PA (depending on how close she and Obama poll in those 2 states).


11 posted on 07/07/2009 10:36:26 AM PDT by Obushma (Obama=Bush 3rd Term!)
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To: kittymyrib
In a political world based on personality, you’d better have one. Sarah does. Her rivals don’t.

Exactly, and I always point this out to the Palin-bashers who scream that she "quit" or doesn't have experience. She has other intangibles that compliment the satisfactory experience she has now.

I don't see how Huckabee or Romney are going to be contenders, because 3 years from now they will be forgotten.

12 posted on 07/07/2009 7:54:33 PM PDT by Extremely Extreme Extremist ("President Obama, your agenda is not new, it's not change, and it's not hope" - Rush Limbaugh 02/28)
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To: Virginia Ridgerunner
Sarah Palin was the Republican best positioned to emulate the tactical model employed by Barack Obama in seeking the Democratic nomination in 2008.

While I take this quote out of context, I would like to point out that this is EXACTLY the path she has chosen to avoid. Barak Hussain Obama is taking the path of Chicago politics, to defame, destroy and demean your opposition in all ways and means possible till there is no opposition. (See his first run for Senate), Sarah is taking the path of true American Politics, to have an Idea and Ideals that are superior to your opponent.

Barack Hussain Obama is self serving, Sarah is selfless. The strange thing is that self serving people cannot understand Sarah, she is an enigma to them. Once they abandon the ways of righteousness, they become evil and have not the ability to comprehend righteousness, they can only think in terms of evil. It is their Achilles heel.

Let us hope Sarah can keep putting country before self and does NOT follow Obama's ugly political path.

13 posted on 07/08/2009 12:04:41 PM PDT by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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To: MikeWUSAF

Liz Cheney


14 posted on 07/08/2009 12:06:15 PM PDT by Pistolshot (Brevity: Saying a lot, while saying very little.)
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To: Malesherbes
Now who better to help Republicans win marginal House districts than a campaigning Sarah Palin? If she can pull this off, there’s no stopping her.

You nailed it! And it fits with what she is saying she is going to do. All the liberals are trying to fit Sarah to their warped model of politics. How come it never occurs to them to simply listen to what she says. Are they so used to lying that they can no longer believe a person is telling the truth?

15 posted on 07/08/2009 12:08:47 PM PDT by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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