& Our Next President
Posted on 07/02/2009 9:30:03 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Sounds far-fetched and, to some, totally implausible. But the Republicans are losing potential candidates at a pace that is downright alarming if you believe in a healthy two-party system. The demise of John Ensign’s political career a few weeks ago and the surreal downfall of Mark Sanford last week is enough to send chills through the even the most optimistic Republican strategist. We know that of the 2008 crop, only Mitt Romney seems likely to stay on as a contender. The old stalwarts like Newt Gingrich may get a lot of press, but it is unlikely they can mount a real challenge to Obama in 2012. Yet, the presidential election of 2012 will be more than a simple coronation of Barack Obama if the economy stalls and there is no progress in two important areas: national security and healthcare.
Ballooning deficits and a sluggish economy could alter the mood of America by the time the 2010 mid-terms come up, giving hope to the GOP for the next presidential primary season. This is why Sarah Palin is maintaining a persistent media presence, whether it is debating David Letterman or being the biggest Republican draw on the lecture circuit. She clearly has her eyes set on the presidency.
The latest edition of Vanity Fair brings this possibility forward, though not in a favourable light. Journalist Todd Purdhom paints a picture of a woman with a narcissistic personality, who’s short on knowledge, disinterested in policy discussion, and not ready for primetime. In the end, the story says more about John McCain’s competence and character than it does about Palin, simply because he flubbed his most important decision as a presidential candidate. That said, Palin brought much needed energy to an otherwise lackluster campaign and, to this day, she energizes the base as no other candidate can. Could it be possible she may someday be a candidate for the presidency?
My experience tells me that no one should be written off in a hypothetical context. Barack Obama is proof positive of this. I still maintain that, without Bush, there is no Obama nomination. Palin is a street smart politician who has benefited from being underestimated most of her career. McCain’s disastrous choice may have been fatal to his electoral chances, but it brought Palin to the forefront of national attention. Since then, she has become a celebrity that transcends her party. However, if she is to be taken seriously and considered a viable contender, she needs to change the negative perceptions of her and develop a political profile that appeals to those outside her narrow base.
To do this, she must gradually reduce her exposure and begin to educate herself on the issues. She will not be ready for 2012 by remaining governor of Alaska and playing the celebrity. The GOP has too proud a tradition to have a re-run of the 2008 vice-presidential candidate. Also, the base Palin relies on for support no longer holds the sway it once did. Social conservatism is losing steam as a political movement thanks to the dubious habits of people like Gingrich, Ensign and Sanford, and the election of an African-American president as well as the increased attention paid to gay rights issues shows that Americans have begun to cast their old divisions aside. The future for the GOP lies with fiscal conservatism and strong national security policy—not with turning back the clock. Palin must embrace the values that created the Republican party in the first place—a belief in the individual, a belief in a limited role for the state, and a commitment to equality. The party of Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Eisenhower, and (the pragmatic version of) Reagan is the path to a Republican resurgence. Palin is nowhere on that radar. She is all about celebrity status and controversy.
In the lead-up to July 4, Americans usually reflect on their great democracy. Overall, it is healthy and has shown resilience through the decades. But the Republicans have to become a viable alternative for this democracy to remain vibrant. So is Palin a real possibility for 2012 or 2016? Will she someday be a formal candidate for the presidency? Most definitely. But can she ever win? Based on what we have observed so far, I would say definitely not, though politics has been known to produce some strange developments.
Source: Laura Ingraham radio show Mar 10, 2008
To summarize baseball legend Reggie Jackson: nobody boos a nobody. That is definitely true in the case of Governor Sarah Palin. I don’t think I am going out on a limb here when I speculate that individuals who repeatedly attack her anonymously view her as a threat. And that includes members of the media hell-bent tearing down young Republican up-and-comers as well as some in Governor Palin’s own party — a party desperately in need of redefining — who are motivated, for whatever reason, to try and crush their rivals.
The most recent and grossly unfair attack came from Vanity Fair magazine. The writer clearly had an unshakable point of view from the start and talked only to those who would criticize. For example, he personally asked me at event preceding the White House Correspondents Dinner if I would talk to him about Governor Palin. I agreed. He didn’t call. He didn’t email. He never once tried to get my take. I also know he never contacted campaign manager Rick Davis, or John McCain.
I have known many political leaders over four decades including all Republican presidents and VPs. I have come to know Sarah Palin over the past year and can state unequivocally that she is smart, curious, hard working, charming, and effective. She also has something her detractors clearly lack – a sense of honor and loyalty.
I know this is petty, but it reminds me of the 2004 presidential election where it was commonplace and accepted in much of the mainstream media to call President Bush stupid and Senator Kerry smart and insightful. At the end of the day, when Senator Kerry finally released his college transcripts, wouldn’t you know: he did quite a bit worse than President Bush.
I have seen Sarah up close with leading heavyweights, and have seen her hold her own and then some. At the dinner at my home referenced in the article, she engaged comfortably and deeply with people ranging from Alan Greenspan to Madeleine Albright to Mitch McConnell. She asked for a foreign policy discussion on her June 7 trip to Washington, and I saw her engage in an informed and spirited manner with Frank Carlucci.
Governor Palin has many admirers and defenders out there who will not allow her to be branded by jealous rivals with their own agenda and the elitists in the national media. I am not sure who the unnamed Vanity Fair sources are, but without question they lack chivalry and have acted in a craven manner. They also lack the facts. I am ashamed of my former campaign colleagues, whoever they are.
People vote for the person.
They had a chance to vote for both Sarah Palin and Barack 0bama in 2008.
10 million more people came out to vote for 0bama than came out to vote for Palin.
If we tried it again in 2012, we’d have the same result.
In fact, every rematch in moder times has resulted in the losing candidate increasing the margin they lost by.
It happened with Dewey in his rematch against Truman, Stevenson in his rematch against Eisenhower, and Mondale in his rematch to avenge the Carter administration against Reagan.
I see no reason why Palin would buck history, especially when her ticket lost by a larger margin than Dewey, Stevenson, or Carter. That tells me that she would go down like Mondale the second time around.
Michael Reagan invoked his beloved, deceased father to shill for an ill-fated GOP ticket. it was a real low point for him.
I bet he feels pretty sick about writing those words now.
If Sarah Palin is America’s true First Lady, does that mean Todd Palin is really the President?
~sigh~
Everyone who made those sorts of Reagan and Thatcher comparisons did so before the McCain campaign let Sarah loose in the media.
Everyone felt pretty embarrassed about comparing her to such greats after that.
Nah, Michael Reagan continues to speak admiringly of Governor Palin and oft mentions how similar she and his father are.
Do you ever dress in early 19th century French military garb and strut ‘round with your right hand inserted in the vest?
I’m sure he still speaks well of her, but I think it’s pretty clear in retrospect that he went a bit too far saying that Sarah Palin was his father in a dress and bearing children.
I think you’ve got to admit that piece was like a distasteful sales pitch that in the end only sold out the Reagan family name.
Just as it’s distasteful when the Ballerina invokes his father’s name to attack Republicans, as he has found a niche for doing on Air America.
My experience tells me that no one should be written off in a hypothetical context. Barack Obama is proof positive of this. I still maintain that, without Bush, there is no Obama nomination. Palin is a street smart politician who has benefited from being underestimated most of her career.Op, see, Bush's fault. ;')
That’s a pretty “wide” definition in my book.
You omit some facts about the Obama victory. First, if 5% of the voters switched to McCain, he’d won. It wasn’t a landslide victory. Second, Obama had the press rooting for him and bashing his opponents, especially Palin, like never before. Third there was the financial upheaval close to the election. Some say the portrayal of the portrayel of Obama and McCain during that period turned the election to Obama.
It is extremely plausable to believe that the Palin bashing that goes on to this day is based on fear that she can capture the American public.
Read that interview she recently gave to Runners’ World magazine. Sarah has never bored me.
Thank you for a good post; it is time that people on FR figure some things out:
First, I am SICK and tired of the pessimism regarding the elections of 2012. Many seem to already believe that Barry will win...if his numbers keep going down, he will not win. This is our chance to redefine the Party of Reagan...we will win in 2012, unless we appoint another “safer” choice to run against him.
Second, I know some on here blame Palin for not “beating” Obama. I wish these people would get it into their heads that PALIN DID NOT RUN against Obama. Mac lost by 10 million votes, not because of Sarah, but because he spent years bashing the Conservative base. He was lucky to get that close...did everyone see the rallies when Palin wasn’t there...pitiful.
Third, there is an excitement among Republicans (grass roots) that I haven’t seen before...it is for Palin. Remember, she just recently drew 20,000 in a stop to NY and she outshined Newt at a recent GOP event (20,000 for a VP ain’t bad).
Fourth, everyone on here clamors for a real conservative...well, she is standing in front of you and yet you think she can’t win. I only voted for McCain BECAUSE of Palin...but it has been documented that tons of Republicans stayed home because Mac was leading the ticket.
Finally, if Michael Reagan wants to compare Palin to his dad, that is his choice. He knows Ronnie better than any of us...truthfully, I see a lot of Reagan in Palin. Mac threw around the fact that he was a “Reagan foot soldier” but Palin’s policies most reflect his father’s views.
Again, Obama isn’t unbeatable! Palin is a tremendous candidate. McCain, NOT Palin ran against Obama (repeat that after me...Palin didn’t run against Obama)
What conservative positions, n00b?
McCain-Lieberman cap-and-trade?
McCain-Kennedy amnesty for illegals?
McCain-Feingold campaign-finance reform?
Supporting al-Qaeda terrorists in Kosovo and Albania?
Bailing out the big New York banks?
Calling Obama "a decent man"?
Leaving hundreds of U.S. POWs to rot in Vietnam and shutting down efforts to rescue them?
Taking bribes and kickbacks from bankers during the S&L crisis in the '80s?
If McNuts has a track record of "conservative positions," then either you are smoking something real good, or you will love 0bama, since the two agree on sooo many things.
P.S. I didn't vote for Captain McQueeg, and I never will. I voted for a third-party conservative.
Same here. Since Rep. Paul didn't win the nomination, I voted for Pastor Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party. I'll never vote GOP again unless the nominate true defenders of the Constitution. NEVER.
So you want Obama, but Republican
To oppose a young, handsome, well spoken and articulate MAN, with a solid progressive record, a clean family life that the cons couldn’t poke fun at, and something intangible that people respond to, like a sense of awesome.
Tweedledee and Tweedledum: the future of America.
If there is anything left here to be president of in four years, I’ll vote for her.
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