Posted on 06/23/2009 1:51:10 PM PDT by arthurus
* we still have record levels of debt to pay down;
* we have no economic model in place in the U.S. to provide the jobs to pay off this debt (our GDP is 30% based on a financial sector, which was built on a house of derivative cards) and fully two thirds of our GDP is based on consumer spending, which is a bit circular in terms of helping to support further consumer spending; * we have an aging population of baby boomers that just lost 40-50% of their retirement and significant home value but they are going to be retiring beginning in a year or two, with increasing percentages over the next 10-15 years;
mark
And then worse.
Worse.
You are correct. Such as, the total manufacturing per dollar output in this country (U.S.) is at least 50% higher than China’s.
Yes: It’s sad,but even worse we are facing health care reforms that will cost trillions and give us less health care than we now have.
People work and compete when they believe they have a chance.
When the government takes the game away. People will still compete but not to serve.
They will compete against whatever game is being played.
Not true at all. The US economy was driven by financial services, real estate and consumption.
Pain for miles and miles is all I see
Future lucrative job skills: conversational mandarin and how to push a mop.
Financial services (the apple) is a sector of the economy; as are: mining, construction, utilities, retail and wholesale trade, transportation, information technology, real estate, educational services, arts & entertainment, etc. All of these sectors are on the “producer” side of the economy.
Consumer spending (the orange) is on the other side of the economy.
The Baby Boom started in 1946. The first Boomers are already 63 years old. Retirement Age.
From here on out, for the next 20 years, 77 Million Boomers are going to want to downsize out of their McMansions into little retirement condos.
This is the *opposite* of the consumption-driven behavior that the world experienced until now.
Opposite.
Things have changed.
The world has now changed.
A new paradigm is here.
We’re *not* going back to the way that things were. Real-estate is not going to bounce back. Jobs are not going to bounce back. Spending is not going to bounce back.
This is *not* a temporary change. We’re looking at 20 more years of this change, minimum.
Worldwide.
The working-age population is projected to become more than 50 percent minority in 2039 and be 55 percent minority in 2050 (up from 34 percent in 2008). Also in 2050, it is projected to be more than 30 percent Hispanic (up from 15 percent in 2008), 15 percent black (up from 13 percent in 2008) and 9.6 percent Asian (up from 5.3 percent in 2008).
US Census: An Older and More Diverse Nation by Midcentury
In our 50 largest cities, only 53% of the students graduate from high school on time. The Black out of wedlock birthrate is 68% and for Hispanics it is 50%. We are creating a permanent underclass.
The U.S. adds one international migrant (net) every 36 seconds. Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 80 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest it has been in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born.
34 percent of immigrants lack health insurance, compared to 13 percent of natives. Immigrants and their U.S.-born children account for 71 percent of the increase in the uninsured since 1989. Our Emergency Rooms have been turned into free health care clinics for immigrants, legal and illegal, affecting the quality and timeliness of services and increasing medical costs subsidized by the insured and the taxpayers.
Immigration accounts for virtually all of the national increase in public school enrollment over the last two decades. In 2007, there were 10.8 million school-age children from immigrant families in the U.S. Although immigrants account for 13 percent of the population, they comprise 21 percent of the school age population.
The proportion of immigrant-headed households using at least one major welfare program is 33 percent, compared to 19 percent for native households. The poverty rate for immigrants and their U.S.-born children (under 18) is 17 percent, nearly 50 percent higher than the rate for natives and their children. Massive low-skill immigration works to counteract government anti-poverty efforts. While government works to reduce the number of poor persons, low-skill immigration pushes the poverty numbers up. In addition, low-skill immigration siphons off government anti-poverty funding and makes government efforts to shrink poverty less effective. Milton Friedman said, “You cannot simultaneously have free immigration and a welfare state.”
You just nailed the real economic problem: Demographics and a declining population. Our model economic model of consumption is failing as the population begins to decline and Boomers take themselves out of the market.
Also, the ideology of the Boomer generation is that of dreamers and shows in the political realm. While dreaming produced space travel and other wonderful marvels, expecting gen xers and millenials to have a horrid quality of life as pack mules is beyond dreaming and into the nightmare realm.
World war will be the ultimate result of global fiscal crisis as it was in 1907 and 1929. Karma will continue paying a visit to this generation. All in all, societies go through cycles and I particularly like the writings of the Fourth Turning on this topic.
Have you seen the size of the average American? We really need triple the footage..
It may well be that world war is already under way as the Islamic War. This one is also the Long War like the Cold War but probably will be more violent, especially as the radicals among the Moslems acquire and use nuclear weapons. That war seems now inevitable as we declined to take the actions necessary to abort its progress. It could probably have been done cheaply in 1990if Baghdad had been destroyed and the Iraqi oil fields colonized. It could still be done but now requires the much more expensive destruction of Iranian military and economic capability, but I believe that opportunity has been abjured. In a little while, if the West is to survive as a modern society it will require that treatment of a nuclear armed Iran and Pakistan. More likely is a future in burkas.
I don't see that happening. People would have to throw out all the crap they have accumulated over the years...
Not anymore.
77 Million Boomers are going to want to downsize out of their McMansions into little retirement condos.
They are going to retire on money taxed from their kids and grandkids, then handed back to them by loving Democrats.
Enjoy...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.