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West Bank Settlements and the Future of U.S.-Israeli Relations
Stratfor ^ | 8 June 2009 | George Friedman

Posted on 06/08/2009 4:23:48 PM PDT by The Pack Knight

Amid the rhetoric of U.S. President Barack Obama’s speech June 4 in Cairo, there was one substantial indication of change, not in the U.S. relationship to the Islamic world but in the U.S. relationship to Israel. This shift actually emerged prior to the speech, and the speech merely touched on it. But it is not a minor change and it must not be underestimated. It has every opportunity of growing into a major breach between Israel and the United States.

The immediate issue concerns Israeli settlements on the West Bank. The United States has long expressed opposition to increasing settlements but has not moved much beyond rhetoric. Certainly the continued expansion and development of new settlements on the West Bank did not cause prior administrations to shift their policies toward Israel. And while the Israelis have occasionally modified their policies, they have continued to build settlements. The basic understanding between the two sides has been that the United States would oppose settlements formally but that this would not evolve into a fundamental disagreement.

The United States has clearly decided to change the game. Obama has said that, “The United States does not accept the legitimacy of continued Israeli settlements. This construction violates previous agreements and undermines efforts to achieve peace. It is time for these settlements to stop.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to stop building new settlements, but not to halt what he called the “natural growth” of existing settlements.

Obama has positioned the settlement issue in such a way that it would be difficult for him to back down. He has repeated it several times, including in his speech to the Islamic world. It is an issue on which he is simply following the formal positions of prior administrations....

(Excerpt) Read more at stratfor.com ...


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Israel
KEYWORDS: israel; obama; settlements
Interesting analysis from George Friedman at Stratfor.com, and worth a read of the full article at the link. It looks like Obama's real aim here is two-fold; to improve his image among the Arabs by forcing a confrontation with Israel, and to force Netanyahu out of power by driving a wedge between him and the left of his coalition.
1 posted on 06/08/2009 4:23:49 PM PDT by The Pack Knight
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To: SJackson

Ping to an interesting take on Obama’s push on settlements.


2 posted on 06/08/2009 4:27:38 PM PDT by The Pack Knight (Duty, Honor, Country)
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To: The Pack Knight

Israel needs to do what it thinks best. They are only facing a weak President. Do what he does with us.......move now and move fast.


3 posted on 06/08/2009 4:35:57 PM PDT by RC2
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To: The Pack Knight

Obama is going to throw Israel under the bus. Talk show host Rusty Humphries made the statement...Obama knows the Koran very well. Infidals have three choices...convert...die....or pay a tax. Obama will pay the tax and the price is Israel.


4 posted on 06/08/2009 4:48:00 PM PDT by Conservative4Ever (Man the pitchforks and torches.......let the revolution begin)
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To: Conservative4Ever

I will accept just as many settlements as Israel wants to build, and I will plant just as many olive trees as I can and as many flowers. I will pray for Israel and the peace of Jerusalem as long as my life lasts.


5 posted on 06/08/2009 7:30:10 PM PDT by tessalu
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To: dennisw; Cachelot; Nix 2; veronica; Catspaw; knighthawk; Alouette; Optimist; weikel; Lent; GregB; ..
Middle East and terrorism, occasional political and Jewish issues Ping List. High Volume

If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.

..................

6 posted on 06/09/2009 5:42:10 AM PDT by SJackson (in the fight against terrorism, no middle ground, half-measures leave you half-exposed, D. Cheney)
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To: The Pack Knight

Here’s what Friedman is missing.

Why did Labor ever join a coalition government led by Bibi which includes Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas?

Iran.

There are things bigger for Ehud Olmert, the most decorated Israeli soldier and officer in Sayeret Matkal and Bibi’s commanding Officer in Sayeret Matkal, than politics. Barak joined the coalition as Defense Minister, a task which no Israeli can do better. He knew what the coalition was and who was leading it. He’s not going anywhere till that job is done.

Further most articles I’ve seen have the coaltion numbers wrong. Bibi has some play. There are actually farther right, pro settlement groups who were kept out of the coalition because of Labor. Should Labor bolt, they could join to make the majority.

Obama, and his stooge Rahm Emanuel (this has his finger prints all over it since he was involved in the Clinton election tampering which got Barak elected), are not understanding the Israeli mentality here. What Clinton did, Oslo, resulted in failures which the Israeli public recognizes. They also recognize the existential threat of Iran and are not stupid enought to be played by the US. They know the Obama led US is NOT going to do a thing. Look at the most recent polls for proof.


7 posted on 06/09/2009 9:48:44 AM PDT by dervish (I never saw a wild thing sorry for itself)
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To: dervish; All
"There are things bigger for Ehud Olmert"

Correction -- Ehud Barak

8 posted on 06/09/2009 9:51:15 AM PDT by dervish (I never saw a wild thing sorry for itself)
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To: tessalu

Am I correct in assuming you live in Israel? Many of us in America pray daily for Israel and many of those are Christians. I understand the importance of Israel.


9 posted on 06/09/2009 4:54:33 PM PDT by Conservative4Ever (Man the pitchforks and torches.......let the revolution begin)
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