[Senator John Blutarski]

lentulusgracchus wrote:
“...the missile theory has a few problems (setting the eyewitnesses aside for a minute), the first being tactical. I’m unaware of a MANPADS that can reach an aircraft reliably at 13,000’. The Stinger’s operational ceiling is about that, or rather less. The copies cranked out by the Soviets and Chinese are about the same, for obvious reasons (their propellants aren’t any better than ours).”

..... TWA800 would have been a relatively easy target for a Soviet SA16/18, which even then was 15 year old technology.

“A further problem for the TWA 800 missile enthusiasts is the fact that the explosion occurred dead-center in the aircraft, whereas SA-14’s, Stingers, etc., are IR homing and typically strike an engine. Recall the DHL Airbus A300 freighter that was struck on one wing (photo) over Baghdad by an SA-14 MANPADS but managed to land safely.”

..... Maybe yes, maybe no. An IR guided missile will target the center of the target’s IR signature. Also, the SA16/18 has multiple fuzings: delayed impact, magnetic, or grazing.

“If TWA 800 had been struck by an SA-14, a) it might easily have survived the attack and landed safely, the 747 being a big, capable aircraft with multiple system redundancy, and b) if it had succumbed, the sequence of events would have been a lot different.”

Even older manpads were capable of bringing down a multi-engine airliner

[ http://www.smokeinthecockpit.com/menu_pages/manpads.html ]

As the IRA once said: “you have to be lucky every time; we only have to be lucky once”.

And the final fly in the ointment is that, presuming a missile attack occured [which I believe] we are assuming that it was a manpad device. It is also perfectly feasible for a larger and more capable missile system to have been fitted to a small ocean-going vessel [think fishing trawler]. Far-fetched? Perhaps. But certainly not outside the realm of possibility.

[djf]

Not to mention that contrary to what some have said here about no missile parts being found, there were in fact multiple finds of Stinger (or a Stinger type) first stage ejectors in the days/weeks following the incident.

[lentulusgracchus]

Your linked website records that MANPADS systems are 2-for-6 against civil-aviation targets. The two airliners known to have been destroyed were older models (a 727 and a 737) operated by smaller regional airlines.

A MANPADS missile has never yet succeeded in destroying a civil-aviation heavy.

[Non-Sequitur]

..... TWA800 would have been a relatively easy target for a Soviet SA16/18, which even then was 15 year old technology.

Would it? The 747 would have been near the upper limit of the SA16/SA18 altitude and, depending in where it was launched, overall range.

Maybe yes, maybe no. An IR guided missile will target the center of the target’s IR signature. Also, the SA16/18 has multiple fuzings: delayed impact, magnetic, or grazing.

For a heavily laden 747 climbing to altitude, the center of the IR signature would be one of the four engines cranking out the heat. By rights any IR guided missile would have hit an engine or wing.

[FreedomPoster]

>>..... TWA800 would have been a relatively easy target for a Soviet SA16/18, which even then was 15 year old technology.

No it wouldn’t have been.

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/sa-16.htm

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/missile/row/sa-18.htm