Posted on 06/05/2009 12:35:45 PM PDT by milwguy
plane went down with 2 syrians onboard.
No suspects/sarc
Or perhaps there was hazardous material on the plane and when the turbulence started up...KaBOOM! It was a long way down. I’m not surprised systems went fail,fail, fail, one after the other before going silent.
Syria? An Iranian Proxy and source for Semtex.
Ping for later
Their “Loss”.....
Anything’s possible, but I doubt the “trial run” theory. I’m sure there are various sorts of trial runs being carried out by terrorists on a regular basis, but it appears they are trial runs of pieces of the plan, e.g. having operatives get things past security when boarding a flight, or placing operatives in sensitive jobs within secure airport areas where they can tamper with planes or get explosives on board, etc. Once they’ve made sure all the pieces of the plan are feasible, they go ahead and actually carry out the plan on a politically valuable target. Once you’ve got the operative in place and the explosives onto the plane, why bother actually bringing the plane down — you’ve already established that the scheme works.
The only possibility of a trial run that I can see here is one not involving explosives or an on-board operative, but rather involving advance or remote tampering with the aircraft’s computer systems. It could be that they’ve been trying this on dozens or hundreds of flights without success, and thus were still choosing targets on the basis of accessibility rather on the basis of political value, because they were still assuming they hadn’t figured out how to make it work. If so, we’re screwed, but I expect we’ll find out very quickly if this is the case, when a clearly high-value aircraft target is taken down, most likely another Airbus 330 class aircraft.
This is very bizarre. I’m puzzled by the complete lack of wreckage. This was a very large plane at a very high altitude. Had it broke up, there would be very widespread wreckage - and seat cushions all over the place (they are flotation devices). Had it hit the ocean intact, there still would have been a large amount of debris just from the speed of the impact. A plane this large doesn’t just vanish without a trace.
I don’t believe there is any cover up right now, but there certainly are some spooky things surrounding this whole thing.
Pinging as requested. :)
Such a group might intend to blackmail the French government with threats of additional carnage, to name just one possibility.
That has been bothering me in following all these threads. Has it occurred to anyone that they weren't able to transmit anything. Were they incapacitated in some way? Hmmm. It's been said that communication is the last priority but still, how long to say Mayday? JMO.
Well, GS...just my two cents (and maybe I do read too many mysteries...) but if a terrorist organization doesn’t step forward to ‘claim’ the act, could it be that behind the scenes (just like the initial threat) there are blackmail or follow up threats (that haven’t been released).
Just a (scary) possibility. Sometimes I think I need a literary agent...
Hope I am wrong.
Let’s think about this for a second. Had a plane gone down at such a rate everyone seems to be claiming, there would be some form of debris on the ocean surface, plastics, luggage, insulation, ect. It could be very possible this plane was seized. All you need is someone that knows enough about the aircraft to tamper with the on board systems to emit these “automated messages” to make people think a plane went down. Shut off the location beacon and there you go, the plane has now vanished. And don’t rule out terrorism just yet. Just because it’s not a viable target, doesn’t mean a thing. Why wouldn’t they hit the most unlikely target? What’s to say the plane wasn’t flown to some unknown destination, everyone on board killed, and the plane being refitted for other purposes? All speculation but don’t rule out the possibilities just yet. I wouldn’t buy into this “plane breaking up” story just yet either. I’ll try to find the source but I viewed a news article just the other day where a woman was interviewed whose husband was on this plane. She called her husbands cell phone ONE DAY after the incident and the phone rang 4 times and went to voicemail. Every cell phone I have ever called that was dead or disabled in some way never rings... Once again everything is a theory until proof is found and the ocean is quite vast... I do think something stinks here though. Wouldn’t be the first time several governments have covered something up.
It’s possible that they (3 of them, plus all the flight attendants) were physically incapacitated and thus unable to transmit even a MayDay call. It’s also possible that they were still fully capacitated at a time when all the electrical systems that would have carried a call had already been knocked out. In either case, we’re still left with the question of what knocked out either the crew or the electrical systems (or both) with virtually no warning. In most cases it’s clear that something is seriously wrong for a least a few minutes before things are so far gone that either the crew or communication systems are completely knocked out.
On the other hand, the Heathrow almost-crash (BA Flight 38), in which both engines lost power less than a minute before landing, none of the crew had time to notify air traffic control or the passengers. If a similar loss of power occurred at the same time this Air France plane was being buffeted around by severe turbulence, there may have been no time to engage in communications before a catastrophic loss of control that led to the break-up of the plane mid-air. If the crew were in a situation so bad that they knew there would be no possible benefit to sending out a MayDay call, they would have focused on other things for what little time they had. That’s what the BA 38 crew did, and it turned out to be the right call.
The “plane didn’t break up” is simply not viable, on so many levels, it’s not even worth discussing.
I agree.
I posted the following commentary to several news and avaiation forums this am and yesterday.
First let me preface my commentary with the following:
I am a FAA Licensed Pilot, but I have no experience as an (ATP) Airline Transport Pilot or in flying heavy multi-engine commercial type equipment. I, like everyone else (including professionals) must reserve judgment and not make any hasty rush to judgment pre-determinations regarding this incident. If I must adhere to this reservation, then why is no one else subscribing to this restrained practice?
The information coming out in recent days re: this Air France Airbus 330 accident has a bad smell to it and did so from day one. In fact, the aroma is getting more pungent by the day. Lots of people are jumping to lots of different conclusions and affixing blame already. I have even seen the blame being laid at the feet of George Bush (Honest!) and Global Warming among the many other alleged causes I have seen published.
It typically takes months, often years to find and gather enough evidence to make a final determination in these type accidents that happen over land masses. When they happen over deep Blue Ocean Waters, they are even much harder to solve. Sometimes, a final factual determination supporting a specific conclusion and cause(s) cannot ever be reached.
This accident might very well be one of those that can never be factually solved.
The ocean depths in the crash area are reported to vary from a few thousand feet to 4 miles or more and the bottoms are not flat, but deeply canyoned. If the black boxes even survived the aircraft breakup and subsequent fall from altitude, they may be resting thousands of feet below the surface in uneven terrain. If the Transmitted Signal Pinging cannot be detected, then they, most likely will not ever be found and recovered. The Black Boxes are Key Evidence and especially with this incident in-that it happened over deep water and the aircraft wreckage is now sunken or scattered over thousands of square miles etc.
As I offered in an earlier message, the Weather “Only” scenario/causation is problematic for me and the many, including trained professionals and for all those of us who have a keen interest in all things aviation. If you look at (historically) all the Flight Operations data over-time including crashes/incidents there is very little precedent for this Weather “Only“ scenario for a large transport type aircraft traveling at normal cruising speeds at Flight Level Altitudes so as to be ripped out of the sky and downed by turbulence, lightning, violent updrafts/downdrafts etc. etc. There are plenty of incidents close to the ground at lower altitudes in arrival or departure operations, yes, but not like this incident.
1. Essentially, Weather Alone – Possible but Doubtful!
2. Weather in conjunction with other supporting type Human or Engineering Factors - Yes
Since the Black Boxes may not be found to support any factual type conclusion, it appears that the many who have a vested interest in this incident are already developing suppositional causes with built-in defenses. Why? It’s called Culpability and Liability. If Mother Nature and all her known ferocity are to blame, then we have an Act Of God Incident that essentially gets everyone else off the hook who otherwise may have some intrinsic culpability and liability exposure for other types of cause and effect scenarios.
Weather as the sole cause could be very convenient for some.
Everyone in this incident including the flying public has something to gain or something to lose. Who might this be you ask here’s who:
1. The French Government
2. Airbus and its Consortium, Contractors, Suppliers, Maintenance Group etc.
3. The Flight Crew and their possible actions or non-actions
4. Insurance Underwriters
5. Law Firms/ Trial Lawyers
6. Did I forget anyone?
And the beat goes on!
In the end, the Flying Public (you and I) and Families of Passengers gets screwed if there is any rush to judgment here blaming weather when a multitude of other scenarios are highly suspect (based upon past precedent) and that could actually be to blame. I am not insinuating any cover-up on the part of anyone at this point in time, but finding or not finding those black boxes and/or any other physical type evidence affects many people or groups in lots of different ways. Some positive, some not!
Here are two comments I found (I found many) in this News Forum by Professional ATP Guys. There are many others (like these) that are being offered by Professional ATP Class Pilots in other groups just like these:
Quite a few “experts” chattering. I’m not being sarcastic or, condescending. But, there is more to this picture than weather.
I am a MD-11 captain with 32 years of experience. While I would hate to absolutely state that weather was not the MAIN cause of this tragedy....I seriously doubt that it was. Barring mechanical failure(s) these aircraft can transverse weather systems safely for the most part. The auto pilot disconnect is NOT something out of the ordinary in such conditions. Fact is that disengaging the auto pilot is a normal procedure in heavy or, severe turbulence. The pilot “hand flies” so that the aircraft does not overstress as it might do if the A/P remained engaged. It takes an awful lot for an aircraft to self destruct and I am not saying it did not happen but, experience suggests there was something more afoot in this instance.
As a former 707 pilot, we had two major directives regarding thunderstorms and turbulence. Slow down to “penetration airspeeds, well above stall. Use radar to avoid thunderstorms, even if it means changing course, fuel capacity being a consideration for diverting to a nearer airfield. Airline Companies may be encouraging pilots to press the schedules ahead of safe flying. Thunderstorms, like icebergs should be avoided at all costs.
I hope we can hear from more Professional ATP Types both Civilian and Military alike to get there different perspectives and experiences on this incident, especially commentary with the Weather Only scenario.
Some other relevant points
- 12 other planes flew pretty much the same route around the same time with no problems
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&q=Flight+447+12+similar&btnG=Search&aq=f&oq=&aqi=
- Several pilots on other planes in the area saw what they describe as an intense flash falling toward the ocean
http://www.google.com/#hl=en&q=Flight+447+pilots+see+explosion&btnG=Google+Search&aq=f&oq=Flight+447+pilots+see+explosion&aqi=&fp=1mZ_-PL2Zjc
I’m guessing the reason for the different airspeed sensor readings is that the plane was in pieces. IMO only two explanations make sense: lightning caused fuel explosion or bomb. So it does indeed seem very odd that terrorism is being ruled out.
If you know the people in charge know the truth, wouldn’t it do plenty of good? If the govt doesn’t change policies, more to follow. The public need not ever know I have assumed this for a while.
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