yitbos
Posted on 06/04/2009 2:20:17 AM PDT by bruinbirdman
Kim Jong-il looks set to be the last North Korean leader to enjoy a semi-divine status and rule the nation single-handedly.
No matter how well he purges internal opposition, his youngest son will have to rely on a politburo of party and army officials if he takes power, amplifying the risks of infighting in the nuclear-armed state.
South Korean spies this week said the communist nation’s parliament and army had pledged allegiance to Kim Jong-woon, the dictator’s Swiss-educated youngest son, who is said to be in his mid-20s.
It is unlikely he can even become a “Dear Leader” like his father. Cult-status reduces with every step taken away from the “Great Leader”, Kim Il-sung, the nation’s founder who is celebrated for his guerrilla battles against the Japanese in Manchuria in the 1930s.
“The cult system cannot go on through the third generation,” said Kim Tae-woo, researcher at the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses in Seoul.
“For the cult system to be established, three things are necessary – power, personality and policy. But Kim Jong-woon is now only in his 20s, so it is hard to expect the three Ps from him.”
North Korea’s leaders rule by the Confucian notion of “mandate of heaven”. In state media, the firmament often expresses its pleasure with rulers via a rainbow or comet.
“It is difficult to expect personal worship for Kim Jong-woon like that for his father and grandfather,” Kim Tae-woo added.
“If Kim Jong-il falls now, the most likely scenario will be a politburo system centred around senior military and party officials, which is likely to cause a power struggle.”
Many political analysts have seen a recent flurry of military activity as a show of force by Kim Jong-il, who probably had a stroke last year, as he seeks to ward off any challengers to the succession of his dynasty.
“They are not ready to execute a war. Kim Jong-il is testing loyalty, screening people to see who is really dedicated. He is a master of this,” said Daniel Pinkston, North Korea expert at International Crisis Group.
In the case of his father’s sudden death, Kim Jong-woon would have little immediate weight. Kim Jong-il, by contrast, had been active in politics for 30 years before the death of Kim Il-sung in 1994.
Kim Jong-il will have ensured his favoured son has mentors in place. Chief among these is his brother-in-law, the canny political veteran, Chang Sung-taek.
But James Shinn, the former top Central Intelligence Agency analyst for East Asia, said the big question was whether the North Korean apparatus would allow the son to take over.
“It depends on the transition process – does Kim senior get to hang around and gradually ‘hand him over’ to the key folks in the apparatus, the way Kim Il-sung did?” asked Mr Shinn.
He said that scenario would make it easier for Mr Kim to systematically build a support structure for his son, which would be more difficult the earlier he passes away.
“I think the insiders would just as soon turn on him if Kim senior dropped dead suddenly, or had another stroke [which is the most likely scenario],” said Mr Shinn.
Almost nothing is publicly known of the characters of the military top-brass whose powers have been steadily growing under Kim Jong-il.
“I expect the transfer of power will be smooth while Kim Jong-il is alive. But after his death, it will be a collective leadership backed by the military with Kim Jong-woon as a titular leader,” said Choi Choon-heum, senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.
However, Mr Pinkston, at International Crisis Group, cautioned against writing Kim Jong-woon’s political obituary prematurely.
“Yes, there are hurdles for Kim Jong-woon. He is young, he has had no time to build up a support base. But why would Kim Jong-il choose somebody incompetent? He has put his whole life into this system.”
yitbos
somebody with an expensive Swiss education is gonna’ get shot in ass & more- poor kid.
He should just move all of his money back to the Swiss. Then go toss the general that he likes the keys to the garage, and hop on a plane.
The members of the NK elite know that they will be killed if they lose their standing. So they must protect and promote an heir. Kim 2 was/is also a total loser with zero charisma-—didn’t matter. They elites must protect the system to protect their status and avoid being slaughtered in a revolution that would make Romania’s seem polite.
From Kim Jong Sick to Kin Jong Loon.
I could see the North Korean elite reaching out to China and Russia to assist in maintaining order and power there in N.Korea.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.