Well Clemenza you just hammered out the big picture, I merely sketched a few strokes. At least there is some hope for NJ ahead.
Corzine sucks so bad that many people have had enough of him and his girl Carla. And all their baggage.
My fear with Corzine is that if he’s really down in the polls, they’ll pull a Torricelli and maybe get Bill Bradley or some other high-profile and well-liked Dem to step in for him to win.
If Christie (or Lonergan) can get at least 50% in Bergen County, they can squeak by. They need high turnout in the GOP districts, but also need to pick up suburban Dem voters in Middlesex, lower Bergen, and the Philly suburbs in Camden/Gloucester/Burlington counties (the latter of which have become more heavily Dem since the 1980s, but have enough swing voters to make a difference).