Posted on 05/27/2009 5:34:37 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster
US recession to end in second half: NABE survey
Wed May 27, 3:27 am ET
WASHINGTON (AFP) The reeling US economy is poised to emerge from recession in the second half of the year, but recovery will be lackluster, a survey of economic forecasters showed Wednesday.
The National Association for Business Economics said a survey of 45 professional forecasters found that the consensus believed the end of the prolonged recession that began in December 2007 was finally was in sight.
"While the overall tone remains soft, there are emerging signs that the economy is stabilizing," according to NABE's latest survey and its president, Chris Varvares.
"The survey found that business economists look for the recession to end soon, but that the economic recovery is likely to be considerably more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines," said Varvares, who is president of Macroeconomic Advisers.
The NABE outlook showed that panelists expected gross domestic product (GDP) -- the country's goods and services output -- to shrink by 1.8 percent in the second quarter.
But the NABE panel, in the survey taken between April 27 and May 11, downgraded the outlook for the next several quarters.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.yahoo.com ...
LOL. Just like Hoover supposedly said “prosperity is just around the corner”.
I have been telling my wife that 6 months into the Obama administration, the media will do a 180 on the economy.
The Wall Street Insiders never stop playing the same deceptive games.
My wife has several boomer patients, in the family practice, she works in, without jobs for months opting for the early Social Security benefits to buy food and pay for the utilities. Many have gone for this option as their unemployment benefits have run out.
These people will basically have no financial capability to prop up our economy even if it bounces back.
This trend is cited in the link below:
http://crooksandliars.com/susie-madrak/unemployment-claims-run-out-many-work
Tuesday May 26, 2009 07:05 am
As Unemployment Claims Run Out, Many Workers Are Opting for Early Retirement By Susie Madrak
It would make more sense for the government to keep extending unemployment benefits until the recession lets up, because the effects of this poverty-inducing trend are far more harmful to the long-term economy than putting out cash now to keep people afloat:
Reporting from Washington — Instead of seeing older workers staying on the job longer as the economy has worsened, the Social Security system is reporting a major surge in early retirement claims that could have implications for the financial security of millions of baby boomers.
Since the current federal fiscal year began Oct. 1, claims have been running 25% ahead of last year, compared with the 15% increase that had been projected as the post-World War II generation reaches eligibility for early retirement, according to Stephen C. Goss, chief actuary for the Social Security Administration.
Many of the additional retirements are probably laid-off workers who are claiming Social Security early, despite reduced benefits, because they are under immediate financial pressure, Goss and other analysts believe.
The numbers upend expectations that older Americans who sustained financial losses in the recession would work longer to rebuild their nest eggs. In a December poll sponsored by CareerBuilder, 60% of workers older than 60 said they planned to postpone retirement.
Goss said it remained unclear whether the uptick in retirements would accelerate or abate in the months ahead. But another wave of older workers may opt for early retirement when they exhaust unemployment benefits late this year or early in 2010, he noted.
The ramifications of the trend are profound for the new retirees, their families, the government and other social institutions that may be called upon to help support them.
On top of savings ravaged by the stock market decline and the loss of home equity, many retirees now must make do with Social Security benefits reduced by as much as 25% if they retire at age 62 instead of 66.
“When the recession ends and the economy bounces back, there may be a band of people for whom things will never be the same again. They’ll still be paying the price for 10, 20, 30 years down the road,” said Cristina Martin Firvida, director of economic security for AARP, the nation’s largest membership organization for people 50 and older.
Income Tax receipts for many states will continue to plummet as many states don’t tax social security benefits:
“Many states exclude Social Security retirement benefits from state income taxes. The District of Columbia and 27 states with income taxes provide a full exclusion for Social Security benefits — Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Delaware, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Virginia and Wisconsin.”
Maybe the less cautious will bight on the reversal, however, I do not think many will. Easy credit is a thing of the past. To many empty houses, too many in foreclosure, too many jobs gone. Until the jobs come back, spending is a moot point.
Thank you for that link because I wasn't aware of the Argentina impact, but, was fully aware of the CA agricultural irrigation water fiasco.
The woman was two sons who are bankers living in California. She claims to 'know' that all banks are lending money. 'Real estate loans and personal lines of credit are easy,' she claimed. She told me my business contact must be lying. Why? Because her sons claim business loans are going 'great guns.'
She trusts her stock broker because he put her into managed money account. And just has 'a feeling that everything will be all right' with the stock market. This is a good example of a person who has too much of everything. Talk about people with their 'eyes wide shut.'
Thanks for the great info.
Some people refuse to learn from very recent economic history.
I believe that equity losses in 2008 were worse than those of 1929. The next phase of this economic decline may be worse than the 1930s. This is mostly because the U.S. economy carries more than $20 trillion of excess debt. Some experts say that our excess debt including Social Security and Medicare exceeds $ 90 trillion. I posted a link for that opinion a couple of days ago. Also, this time, Wall Street was speculating wildly using exotic financial derivatives the like of which were never seen in history.
We are being led down a path to certain destruction by greedy speculators and by economic and social engineering mavens. Nobody knows how deep and wide the economic damage is today and how far it will go. Everybody is reading rancid tea leaves and declaring pompously that they 'know the truth.' Obama has his head in stuck up the wrong end of his own debased alimentary canal.
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