Posted on 05/16/2009 5:56:38 PM PDT by Lazamataz
Or IOW, the anticipation that inflationary boom may succeed has been driving up equities in true greater fool fashion.
That's because any price spike in commodities (eg oil) and food (eg oil/gas->fertilizer) will have another immediate effect at reducing consumption
The other effect it will have is helping to kill our chances at real recovery by strangling industry that needs those raw materials. A big part of today's recession is fallout from the commodity boom a year ago.
The US was built by self-reliant people and a significant portion of the population still share those characteristics.
I also share your optimism and always have. The creativity, innovation and entrepreneurialism don't go away just because the Fed is propping up insolvent banks with endless bailouts. Those won't go away with the reflationary bubble or the final collapse. OTOH, I have my money parked in speculative investments (e.g. buying tech in March and selling recently) and some inflation hedges (e.g. Canadian energy trusts). Those don't help the long term economic recovery. For that we need one simple thing: higher (i.e. market controlled) interest rates.
I'm glad we agree on that. The market isn't going to win fighting the Fed's QE, but nor is the Fed going to override the market if/when they don't need to. I'm sure Bernanke has every intention of easing up on QE ASAP. But I don't think he realizes the extent to which the market has been betting on his actions versus investing for long term growth. We will probably always disagree (me versus you and BB) on the value of credit to spur long term growth.
Good points. Thanks.
And you are right about him not knowing much about the American culture and the people of that culture outside the humanist secular experience and re-education efforts of limo liberals. All he seems to be aware of is liberalism's invented minority race tribe separatist foreign or invented socialist cultures.
On the other hand, a lot of Christians do not live as Christians. Even those who attend church are often the products of a lifestyle and identity of consumerism and materialism.
Bookmarked
Despite their noises to the contrary and popular belief, the Chinese are on our side in wanting an inflationary boom (or if you are in the BB camp, sustained growth spurred by greater availability of credit). Their crony capitalism feeds off of our real capitalism. To some extent their diligence and proficiency at copying needs our creativity and innovation. Due to this convergence of interests they continue to happily play along with our games of propping up the dollar (or if you are in the BB camp, our pursuasion of other central bankers to unfreeze credit and spur demand).
However, he does not realize that much of America has not been culturally cleansed yet and he knows not of what exists beyond what he is “educated” to know about America by liberals.
Economic collapse will be harder on those who have adopted liberalism's culture and identity which is devoid of anything higher than materialism and socialism's entitlement. That would be the Federal dependency crowd who think they have free stuff coming to them and do not have the internal resources and personal character or morals to cope with entitlement drying up. They will steal and gang thug on others.
The author is not of aware of ideas of American private altruism. He thinks if we don't like Federal welfare we are stingy and mean and give nothing and help no one. That is what liberals have told him and it is probably the only experience of those immersed in the humanist culture encounter.
But one true observation he makes is that we are a society that depends upon being protected from each other by a huge police force and political correctness. He does not know that most Americans are something totally different than the liberal re-education invention.
Gangs and crime are a reality in the US in proportion to the success of liberals to cleanse the Christian American secular culture from certain targeted groups. We have a huge number of immigrants like the author, who know nothing of America from experience and roots and only know what liberals tell them. That is going to be a problem in an economic collapse.
Strong American families have kept and raised their children in their own culture but everyone is competing with liberalism's re-education of their children. This shows in the younger generation's mistaken sense of entitlement and unrealistic self esteem.
But in an economic collapse who is going to drill it without financing and who is going distribute it and who is going to buy it?
That is exactly what I think. He is a foreigner, unfamilar with our social and cultural realities beyond what he has heard from limo liberals. But he has given a good framework or outline of what to expect and, I think, what is likely to happen.
Well, had a chance to mull this over.
I don’t think I’m buyin’. Some of the things Orlov says are stages of collapse — and he cites the Soviet Union — never happened in the Soviet Union. There were, for example, never gangs of roving wastelanders. There was not a cultural breakdown.
Southack made a convincing argument that we are in a deflationary phase due to overproduction. I can kinda buy that. Look around — we simply have way too much stuff. We don’t need any more. Even a cheap apartment has in it, several TV’s, lots of furniture, one and maybe two cars outside....
So when the real estate bubble popped, the fear woke people up. “Holy crap!” they exclaimed, “I don’t need a fourth laptop after all!”
And the deleveraging of overconsumption began.
I suspect, like all trends, there will be overcorrection on the other side. We will see shortages, even. But collapse? I’m not seeing it.
Not even Obama can bring a collapse about. Remember the Soviet Union: They were ingrained to be communist and under severe government controls. No amount of prodding could make them change.
The same attains with us. We are deeply capitalistic, and we buck under government control. Obozo will find this out, in time.
I suspect the fact this guy is a Russian also colors his commentary. I don’t expect TEOTWAWKI.
Well, had a chance to mull this over.
I don’t think I’m buyin’. Some of the things Orlov says are stages of collapse — and he cites the Soviet Union — never happened in the Soviet Union. There were, for example, never gangs of roving wastelanders. There was not a cultural breakdown.
Southack made a convincing argument that we are in a deflationary phase due to overproduction. I can kinda buy that. Look around — we simply have way too much stuff. We don’t need any more. Even a cheap apartment has in it, several TV’s, lots of furniture, one and maybe two cars outside....
So when the real estate bubble popped, the fear woke people up. “Holy crap!” they exclaimed, “I don’t need a fourth laptop after all!”
And the deleveraging of overconsumption began.
I suspect, like all trends, there will be overcorrection on the other side. We will see shortages, even. But collapse? I’m not seeing it.
Not even Obama can bring a collapse about. Remember the Soviet Union: They were ingrained to be communist and under severe government controls. No amount of prodding could make them change.
The same attains with us. We are deeply capitalistic, and we buck under government control. Obozo will find this out, in time.
I suspect the fact this guy is a Russian also colors his commentary. I don’t expect TEOTWAWKI.
Well, had a chance to mull this over.
I don’t think I’m buyin’. Some of the things Orlov says are stages of collapse — and he cites the Soviet Union — never happened in the Soviet Union. There were, for example, never gangs of roving wastelanders. There was not a cultural breakdown.
Southack made a convincing argument that we are in a deflationary phase due to overproduction. I can kinda buy that. Look around — we simply have way too much stuff. We don’t need any more. Even a cheap apartment has in it, several TV’s, lots of furniture, one and maybe two cars outside....
So when the real estate bubble popped, the fear woke people up. “Holy crap!” they exclaimed, “I don’t need a fourth laptop after all!”
And the deleveraging of overconsumption began.
I suspect, like all trends, there will be overcorrection on the other side. We will see shortages, even. But collapse? I’m not seeing it.
Not even Obama can bring a collapse about. Remember the Soviet Union: They were ingrained to be communist and under severe government controls. No amount of prodding could make them change.
The same attains with us. We are deeply capitalistic, and we buck under government control. Obozo will find this out, in time.
I suspect the fact this guy is a Russian also colors his commentary. I don’t expect TEOTWAWKI.
I don’t know if it will take the form of the Mexican kind of crime - kidnappings. it will most like be more American- murder, rape, pillage and slaughter (riots).
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I can’t tell you how much better this makes me feel...
Well, had a chance to mull this over.
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Does this mean no zombies?
L
Yup.
When one looks at dictatorships such as Nazi Germany or Stalinist Russia, they appear terribly efficient. Whatever the dictator decides is implemented without any wrangling.
However, when one studies the actual workings of the government behind the scenes, one invariably finds infighting and backstabbing that makes the implementation of decisions a great deal more difficult than is apparent on the surface.
In particular, one of the main ways the dictator keeps his position is by encouraging this infighting between factions, which means he often keeps competing initiatives going long after it is has become obvious which is most effective. This can easily be seen in the Nazi system where competing Luftwaffe, Army and SS weapons systems reduced the potential production of armaments.
Meanwhile in America decision were made and production actually was far more efficient.
Thats beautiful! I needed that!
LOL!
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