Well, had a chance to mull this over.
I don’t think I’m buyin’. Some of the things Orlov says are stages of collapse — and he cites the Soviet Union — never happened in the Soviet Union. There were, for example, never gangs of roving wastelanders. There was not a cultural breakdown.
Southack made a convincing argument that we are in a deflationary phase due to overproduction. I can kinda buy that. Look around — we simply have way too much stuff. We don’t need any more. Even a cheap apartment has in it, several TV’s, lots of furniture, one and maybe two cars outside....
So when the real estate bubble popped, the fear woke people up. “Holy crap!” they exclaimed, “I don’t need a fourth laptop after all!”
And the deleveraging of overconsumption began.
I suspect, like all trends, there will be overcorrection on the other side. We will see shortages, even. But collapse? I’m not seeing it.
Not even Obama can bring a collapse about. Remember the Soviet Union: They were ingrained to be communist and under severe government controls. No amount of prodding could make them change.
The same attains with us. We are deeply capitalistic, and we buck under government control. Obozo will find this out, in time.
I suspect the fact this guy is a Russian also colors his commentary. I don’t expect TEOTWAWKI.
As far as if collapse really happened through the stage of political collapse, I have no doubt we would have roving gangs take advantage of turmoil worse they they already do. Whether it would cause us to collapse socially or result in a lot of dead gang members, is another question.
Obama’s debt legacy in handling this crisis and spending like a drunken socialist will have a negative legacy on our economy and government for a long time. How bad it will be, is really is not known.
You are right in the observation that Americans are not spending like nuts and have adjusted their behavior and views of material based on economic reality. This will help.
We have been in a deflationary phase but I think the Obamaites have pumped in money and created enough money out of thin air to produce inflation in some sectors perhaps energy is one
Get ready for deflation and inflation at the same time. All depends what sector of the economy
I really don't think it's overproduction. Rather, I think we collectively reached our credit limit.