Posted on 05/14/2009 9:55:35 AM PDT by cowtowney
Many market-watchers claim that U.S. economic statistics are increasingly being revised downward in subsequent periods, suggesting that the figures initially being reported by Washington are "puffed up," so to speak, most likely for political purposes.
Well, I went back and had a look at the differences between the reported and revised data for various series, including monthly retail sales, nonfarm payrolls, industrial production, and durable goods orders, to try and figure out if the cynics are right.
Using data from Bloomberg, I calculated whether the revised data for each month was lower than the first-cut estimate. Then I tabulated 12-month running totals for each series to see if there has been some sort of systematic bias (in other words, whether the pattern of monthly downward revisions was trending higher instead of undulating up and down).
To make the comparisons easier, I subtracted the 12-month tally as of May 2002 (an arbitarily chosen date) from the monthly totals for all four economic series so that the starting point for each would be the same -- zero.
Based on a quick read of a graph of the data (see below), it does seem as though the pattern of negative revisions has been trending higher lately, especially during the past year or so, suggesting that the cynics may be on to something.
That said, I am not a statistician, and the results may be nothing more than "noise." There is also the possibility that my methodology is lacking (because, for example, the margins-of-error for each month's data are relatively large, or because of certain quirks that crop up when an economy is in transition).
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
UHH, Yes.
For years and years....
And scrubbed.
Figures don’t lie, but liars figure.
.
You’re bad.
Just say it. They are manipulating the market. :)
No $hit, Sherlock!
Notice how we are now called "cynics".
LOL!
How about this twit being called "clueless".
They are just being made up on the fly.
LLS
About six months after 9/11 basically every report from the government was updated and the results hidden in the news when the updates showed a positive trend.
Now we are seeing the opposite.
Also, during that time, the maggot infected mediots of the so called financial news tried to convince us that we in recession and going to hell. Remember the worse recession since Hoover bs.
Now we are in the worst recession since Hoover, and good news comes out and is updated with reality later.
If you go on the BEA Regional Economic Data site, you will see a message that the past several years of Personal Income data are being revised. This is pure Obama, since it was initiated just after his inauguration.
I’m sure they will somehow show that the recession began earlier (under Bush and a republican congress) and ends earlier (thank you, Obama!).
These people are capable of any lie imaginable.
Only for about 40 years.
The rumor in Seattle has always been that if the federal government needs to cook the books on Gross Domestic Product or on the trade gap for a given quarter, that they call Boeing and get Boeing to set up an “advance” delivery of a jet or two or three so that it swings the numbers.
There are usually a few mostly assembled jets, waiting for delivery and for the jet engines to be mounted, just prior to delivery. These mostly assembled jets are on the runways of either Paine Field or Boeing Field in the Puget Sound area.
Massaged? ....like in a San Fran bathhouse.
Long story short - thanks for useful information.
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