Tax time too.
I think that is a big part of it. I can't prove this scientifically, but my guess is a lot of people that are getting money back, file well before April 15 and quickly get their refund checks. This would account for the small uptick we saw in February and the first week in March.
On the other, most people who owe additional taxes, wait until the last possible second to file. This would certainly put a drag on consumer spending for probably April and perhaps even May. JMHO.
It's why I'm so puzzled by this market rally. If you were a rational investor, what metric do you point to that says the economy has hit bottom AND a rebound is forthcoming?