I think that is a big part of it. I can't prove this scientifically, but my guess is a lot of people that are getting money back, file well before April 15 and quickly get their refund checks. This would account for the small uptick we saw in February and the first week in March.
On the other, most people who owe additional taxes, wait until the last possible second to file. This would certainly put a drag on consumer spending for probably April and perhaps even May. JMHO.
It's why I'm so puzzled by this market rally. If you were a rational investor, what metric do you point to that says the economy has hit bottom AND a rebound is forthcoming?
The stock market uptick is a faux recovery, a bubble, it is completely artificial with no real staying power or sustainability.
There is no market rally. Don't believe everything the media tells you. There was ONE day when it gained a couple hundred points. It's fallen practically every day since. down again -147 so far today. And, the DOW average is down over 3000 points from 9 months ago. Most stock is still mopping the basements of businesses everywhere. Rally? What rally? There SHOULD have been a rally by now, spring time, farming, lawn and garden sales, new cars, real estate etc. But it is NOT happening this year.